Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

When the bottleneck to your economic growth is housing, then the housing market is not functioning correctly, ergo it is dysfunctional.

it just means house building here hasnt kept pace with uncontrolled migration into the country

the plan submitted for that location in 2022… and refused

and the story behind https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/city-arts-centre-would-cost-e90000-to-get-to-satisfactory-condition-court-told-1488548.html

well our mensa government need to make the businesses that are "doing well" pay more towards the housing problem then as well as seriously controlling illegal migration here as we have a serious homeless housing crisis, if they dont there eventually will be a new mensa government elected in their place

I should not have tell a person of your intellect that this was not said in the post you quoted

How could full employment be considered dysfunctional

I imagine when you are in your 70s the neighbors who are friends play a big part in you wanting to stay put. Never mind the hassle of downsizing and the difference in quality of life you would have with what available and where its available.

You need to make where they are downsizing tom worth it to them. Otherwise you might as well just euthanize them as far as they are concerned.

https://news.myhome.ie/property-report/myhome-ie-q1-2024-property-report-in-association-with-bank-of-ireland-32145

Myhome Q1 report not the most encouraging. Showing fairly rapid increases in increases in both asking prices and the extent to which sale prices are exceeding those higher asking prices. More pessimistic than Daft equivalent.

Only bright point. 71% of transactions in 2023 were for owner occupiers. A new record. Would suggest higher prices not slowing demand thus far.

What people say and what they do are often 2 different things.

Thats not to say your colleagues wont emigrate, but when you look at the facts from the CSO, the number of irish emigrating annually is approx 30k per year. Which is a lot.

However, this figure is offset by roughly the same number of irish returning each year.

So there is no net decline in irish people living in the state, though I do not know the age bands for those leaving/returning - though I suspect younger are leaving and middle aged with families returning because they can afford it at that stage of their career.

And mortgage rates seem to have peaked and may be coming down. If interest rates come down it will likely add to pressure. I think the continued improvements in supply is great to see but it is just unfortunate demand is also outpacing expectations. One positive if rates fall may be that people locked into low rate mortgages might look trade up or down again. Big part of supply issue is on second hand market and trying to get more normal volumes there

Yes very true. I see AIB dropped their mortgage rates today. As low as 3.45% now for 5 year green fixed <50% LTV. Pretty remarkable given they are offering 3% on fixed term deposits.

It might bring some liquidity back to the second hand market hopefully to go alongside increasing new builds.

But overall, when you see the strength of income tax returns last week. Effectively 0 unemployment. 10.5% Public sector wage increases, the first instalment of which is to kick in next month. Hard to see any scenario but further price growth over the next 2-3 years.

There is still some justice in the world and maybe the market hasn't reached peak bonkers yet, the gobshíte has had to knock €100k off the asking price.

I would say a significant number of people have LTV <50%. Through price increases and natural paying down of the mortgage, many purchasers pre-2019 will have gotten there quickly even if they started at 80/90% LTV.

Average starting point for an FTB is 80.5% and 65.5% for SSB per CBI.

On BER you just need to get the BER assessor to advise you. New boiler, block up fire place etc. B3 can be very cheap and easy to attain. As the value of having a B3 home becomes thousands of euro a year with green rates falling. I’d expect to see more people get wise to this. I know of multiple couples who bought a D rated house. Spent a few thousand euro then switched to a green rate within 6 months. We did this also.

Its not going to happen, we already have too many airports for a country of our geographical size. Very little of the Irish population isn't within a 3hr journey of Dublin airport. And the proven, accepted, key to succesful aviation policy is pushing as much traffic as possible to one airport to maximise its connectivity.

That aside there are numerous other glaring issues with the proposal - the complete lack of transporation links to that area, no local population base (unlike Cork/Shannon or even Waterford airport), the huge number of (valid) objections local home owners and others in flight paths would have to a new airport sprouting up out of nowhere etc.

Theres been a lot of discussion of the complete ridiculousness of it on the Aviation forum.

If it makes any progress at all (which is doubtful) hopefully some local property owners make some money from the Middle-Eastern consortium by overpricing their land though at least I guess.

Would agree with most of your points on the basis we can't build a dog kennel in this country without objections

However they have a good track record of developing airport hubs in the middle east

It's basically an agricultural site with a sea border and some one-off houses and an appropriately named bandb called moneylands. Not many to object except some opportunist FG member on an extortion attempt

With regards to a new city in the south east. Population has gone up by a million in about a decade and we are incapable of building in the existing city's