Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879313#Comment_121879313

I was at the previous viewing. Most looked like MNC couples looking for a home.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879399#Comment_121879399

Considering the number of people in negative equity and the fact that developers had no incentive to build unless prices rose (huge unemployment in construction sector), it is hardly surprising that the government wanted house prices to rise.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879104#Comment_121879104

They're nowhere near Leopardstown by anyone who's not a real estate agent's reckoning. The Leopardstown Inn is 4km away from them! They're either Stepaside or Ballyogan.

Miles away from anything too, thats a crazy price for a house up there.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121880071#Comment_121880071

Understandably it was the political pressure of the day. However it is now a decade down the line and such a priority is inherantly incompatible with affordable housing.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121880349#Comment_121880349

You know well that there are reasons other than just government policy in 2014 why house building has not kept pace with needs. Bringing up what Noonan said at the end of a deep recession which depressed property prices, and not adding the context to those comments adds little new to the discussion..

Blut2

Property prices had recovered enough by 2015 that only a limited number of people who had bought in the peak last years of the Celtic Tiger were left in negative equity.

Trying to increase property prices further to "rescue" these people, who already owned their own homes, at the expense of everyone in the country renting (1/3rd of the population or so), and another huge percentage of the population trying to buy, for a decade more since then is just absolutely horrendous policy making if your goal is to do the most good for the highest number of citizens of the country. And the most good for the country in general in terms of attracting foreign investment/jobs etc, too.

There has also been no shortage of private sector investment pouring in from 2014 onwards, and outright shortages of workers (ie more than enough private sector investment) for public sector projects for over half a decade now. So policies to encourage private sector investment weren't needed in that regard for most of the last 10 years either.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121880071#Comment_121880071

Gas how he must have influenced house prices in the rest of the world at the same time as he single-handedly reinflated Ireland housing market too :)

Some man for one man he was.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121882003#Comment_121882003

From a position of oversupply on entry to government to a point where our most in demand workers are leaving due to lack of housing in one of the most under developed countries in the EU is some achievement

Multiple opportunities to bring some balance to the market have been passed up while every action taken has made affordability worse for buyers and especially renters

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121883183#Comment_121883183

Ironically the oversupply, and those the built them were to blame for all woes, now the undersupply and those who don’t build them are to blame for all woes. There seems to be a lack of understanding, or acknowledgment as to the reasons why we have gone from over to under supply is such a short period of time. Just the same old blame game being regurgitated over and over again by the same people.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121883297#Comment_121883297

Bankers and developers were well looked after by the state and bailed out. Front line workers paid the price. The white collar is never held accountable in Ireland

The failure by the state to prioritise residential or at least balance with commercial developments has led to another supply demand imbalance.

Surely if your building more space for workers one would have some eye on where they are going to live

shoegirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121865578#Comment_121865578

That's why I suggested somewhere like Drogheda & Balbriggan - mature schools & transport links, & demand has held up better over the years than it has in the midlands. But it will of course depend also where people are from and where they work or want to work.

shoegirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121879399#Comment_121879399

Government was locked into that the second the bailout happened. It simply became impossible once the government effectively had to take on vast swathes of property and land related debt.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121884249#Comment_121884249

I'm not contesting the wisdom of decisions back in 2014. What is a problem is maintaining those same priorities in 2024.

theboringfox

Most people who vote own their own houses and despite some virtue signalling from some in that fortunate position I think they almost all do not want to see their house price fall. A rate of increase of about 2% pa should be the target.

ingo1984

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121885230#Comment_121885230

I'm sure the ones who still have their 30+ year old kids living with them because they can't afford a house wouldn't mind seeing the value fall.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121885439#Comment_121885439

The majority do own a home though, so while your point is true, most people dont want to see house prices fall.

About 77% of adults in ireland own a home.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121885454#Comment_121885454

I would that is especially true of the young people who have bought in recent years and may be considering trading up, while a starter home may drop in price, larger homes may be more likely to retain their value.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121885230#Comment_121885230

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121885454#Comment_121885454

You're both totally wrong on that.

"A significant 69pc of people agreed that the average price of a house in Dublin, which currently stands at €430,000, should fall to €300,000 as suggested by Ms McDonald.

A further 63pc of people polled said they would like to see property prices fall even if it meant their own home depreciated in value."[1]

Most people who own their own homes can see the negative effects of the current property crisis on the country. What use is having your property, that you're going to own for decades, abstractly increase in value by 2% a year when this means your children, or your friends can't rent or buy property? Or when your business can't get employees because nobody can afford to rent in the area, or when your local garda station/hospital/school can't get staff...

[1]https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/poll-public-backs-mary-lou-mcdonalds-call-for-300000-average-house-price-in-dublin/a1386646140.html

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121885576#Comment_121885576

What people say and what people think are two very different things.

I dont believe for a second that 6 out of 10 homeowners would happily sign on the dotted line to write 130k off the value of their home...

Av House prices will never be 300k in Dublin. Short of an economic crash and mass migration episode, Its pointless to even contemplate.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121883183#Comment_121883183

Not saying they arent responsible for the rent controls and the lack of rentals and the knock on effects on prices and rents.

But dont give the man credit for inflating house prices because it was some sort of skill. House prices were going up anyway throughout the world.

We just decided to destroy the rental market too.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121885230#Comment_121885230

Having just become a home owner strangely enough I if I ask myself my feelings have changed in the last few weeks.

Where before i would have been delighted with prices falling, I now have skin in the game and would be happy to for them to keep rising, maybe at least to keep in line with or maybe a bit more than inflation.

Of course if anyone asks me I will tell them that "oh, i think house prices are too expensive, its terrible, i think they should drop" just to save having any argument. Really its impossible for me to want my house value to drop.

Amazing how looking from the other side fence and having skin in the game effects your mindset.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121885576#Comment_121885576

Polls also said Yes/Yes would win handily, it lost by a record margin. I don't believe polls about non-thought out hypotheticals. Present the full information to people and they will not be advocating for the damage dropping house prices to 300k would be. Its just pure delusion at this point

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121886974#Comment_121886974

Polls are a funny old thing in Ireland nowadays. Most people dont take them seriously at all anymore. Also most people now just give thye easiest answer when asked as people around them are too sensitive nowadays and its easier just to say what has the least chance of an argument. Then in the polling booth you can say what you really think.

The only time people have faith in a poll nowadays is if it confirms their own opinion. Then they think polls are great and 100% accurate.

In work the other day at lunch there was a conversation and it went the way most do nowadays.

People discussing house prices and rents. Then moving on to complaining that house prices are too high and they need to come down etc. I was sitting there agreeing, but in my mind thinking, jesus i dont want them to come down now. What a catastrophe that would be for both myself and the economy as a whole. Would I say it out loud? No. I asked a couple of close friends in that conversation later on who own their own homes did they think like me. Both said yes, but they wouldnt dare say it out loud.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121887157#Comment_121887157

Sample size of 3 is it?

Myself and many homeowners all would happily take house prices falling, but we are all financially literate and understand that all house prices falling means it actually costs less to trade up, not more.

Many people have no idea other than numbers go up = good

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121887204#Comment_121887204

Of course people will have different opinions. Noone is saying different. You read the post and projected your own opinion on to it.

Point im making is the same as the post above me. Dont put all your faith in a poll. You only have to look back a couple of weeks to see that. In fact when was the last time a poll got it right? I think its a distant memory at this stage.

Lets put it another way. Do you really believe that over 60% of homeowners would be happy with a fall in house prices? I dont.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121887217#Comment_121887217

Polls for the referendums just passed showed a huge number of voters undecided - nobody was predicting a landslide yes win or even close to it.

The polls didn't get it wrong, large parts of the public were undecided up until the day of because most were not that bothered about it to research well in advance.

The undecideds mostly voted no, it doesn't mean majority are lying on polls and that you can discard the result of any poll you don't like now.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121887264#Comment_121887264

Now you are reaching :)

Obviously you think polls are great. But lets get back to the question.

Do you believe that a poll saying over 60% of homeowners want house prices to drop?

Eclectic Econometrics

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121887217#Comment_121887217

I am not saying you are wrong about the 60% but there are a good number of people who either own their home outright, can see the end of the tunnel with regards to mortgage payments, bought around 2013-2019 etc., that would easily take a drop in house prices on the chin. I am not saying all these people would actively want a fall in prices but it is easy to imagine them looking at their children struggling to buy and then saying they would.

I agree with you that saying you want something to happen, especially if it is very unlikely, is a lot easier than living in a reality where your house drops in value by €XXX,XXX. Everyone is Ireland is so concerned about house prices and access to affordable houses etc., just so selfless, which is why NMBY's don't exist here, right?

AlmightyCushion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121886690#Comment_121886690

The only people who benefit from rising house prices are people with mutliple houses or people with a single property that in the future will sell up altogether (not buy another property) or trade down to a cheaper property. If you plan to trade up in the future then it doesn't help because the house you will want to move to will also increase in price and the difference between your current place and the place you buy in the future increases.

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121866697#Comment_121866697

A recession or continued prolonged elevated price inflation in Europe will create as many problems as it solves at best.

Failing to see what support for asylum seekers/immigration has to do with being a renter.