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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,181 ✭✭✭Field east




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,181 ✭✭✭Field east


    Would the US military go along with Trumps dictatorship if he tried it ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I'd say you'd see a split, thus pitching the country further into civil war. There'd be those who admired Trumps façade ofthe Strongman and military mindsets tend conservative, but you'd also have the brass who took their oaths seriously and would see resistance to Trump as that of a Protector of the Republic. It'd get extremely ugly real fast IMO and you'd also potentially see secessionist movements crop up too; California the most obvious example of a predominantly Blue state that has (AFAIK) more than enough resources (bar water IIRC) to go it alone.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,011 ✭✭✭macraignil


    "democracies weren't as weak as Putin thought but unfortunately they are/were weak enough for him to prevail."

    How exactly has putin prevailed?

    Another three months in Ukraine and the losses in his troops recorded by the Ukrainians may reach the half million mark and the Ukrainians have already recorded the destruction of over 6000 of his tanks and over 10,000 of their artillery systems as well as lots of other parts of what has proved to be a far from well functioning military force. His country faces some of the most rigorous international trade restrictions and has billions of international assets frozen due to their terrorist activities and he has had to murder many of his states military and economic leaders just to feel more secure in his grip on power. The so called elections that are due to be run soon have required any serious voices against the war or his leadership to be banned from running or sent to prison to die from natural causes. Many countries in the world continue to announce new supports for Ukraine's struggle to liberated their country from his military and while there may be small advances in places by putin's forces on the front lines the attrition levels they are continuing to experience makes continued occupation of Ukraine unviable in my opinion. Not a picture of prevailing from what I can see.

    Just seen now reports that Ukraine has struck at a military aircraft facility in putin's empire with a new type of drone and Sweden hopes to soon send its Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine to help defend against putin's terrorists.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Any occupation of Ukraine would probably last about as long as breath stays in Putin's lungs. For starters the insurgency alone would require a disproportionate number of Russia's already depleted forces to stay in Ukraine and keep the "peace"; the crackdowns and punishment would be vicious but you'd guarantee the military that slipped through Moscow's fingers would go underground. The drone pilots twice as hard to find. And if there wasn't punitive action threatened the civil demonstrations alone would make whatever puppet state was established less than tenable. It'd need the threat of Russian violence to keep people at home.

    Yet I couldn't see how Putin's death wouldn't cause an immediate and further swell in insurgent action as there'd be a natural nationalist upswing, sensing weakness when the emperor dies. As it was always thus when empires crumble. Assuming Moscow sees yet another coup, and that feels inevitable given the state Putin created, any and all factions fighting the Russians in Ukraine would probably make a play while Russia was distracted.

    Point being: while Ukraine could yet face innumerable tragedy and death if it truly fell, but inspite of that, I can't see it staying in Russian hands for very long. The bell has been rung, Ukrainian autonomy confirmed as something literally worth fighting for - no amount of quisling inserts into Kyiv (and there already was one) is gonna quash that and the harder they try, the more this naturally independent nation will fight. Russians might like to invoke the glory days of the USSR but other nations remember those days less fondly; since 1991 Ukraine has had to watch its back, and remember the likes of Holodomor as an instruction of what happens when Russia attains primacy

    Post edited by pixelburp on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,182 ✭✭✭Sultan of Bling


    They won't have 38 million against them because most will have headed west for refuge.

    This is one of Putin's plans to destabilise the western Europe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,572 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard



    I'm going to LOL so loud if this turns out to be true

    A few twitter heads are reporting an A-50 was destroyed on the ground. Pinch of salt, but see what happens here.

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    They don't need 38 million they just need a few hundred thousand on the streets, or a couple of thousand to resist through violence - which wouldn't be hard. Insurgencies are rarely made from millions but from fanatics, patriots, exmilitary and so on. By their nature they're small and hard to root out without disproportionate violence against civilians, thus catalysing resistance. And a puppet regime is gonna need a russian presence to keep power, or else the aforementioned throngs will turn up at Independence Square all over again. look at belarus, if there wasn't the threat of Russian intervention I daresay Lukashenko would have taken the midnight train to Moscow years ago.

    As to Putin's plans, populism is still rife and Europe possessing its own problems but Putin's plans can't have involved the NATO border exponentially increasing and now on his doorstep. Or involved reducing his armed forces by 400,000 men (so far, a number that'll grow!) and tens of thousands of vehicles. If Putin wins it'll be a Pyrrhic Victory for the ages.

    Post edited by pixelburp on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, the Chinese made their play, and were told to sod off, and they off they went.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,966 ✭✭✭rogber


    I certainly don't think Ukraine is about to fall, nor do I see any others suggesting it. But momentum swinging towards Russia coupled with increasingly alarmed noises from both the Ukrainians and Europeans is why there is some pessimism. There isn't any talk of a counter offensive this year so of course people are wondering how and where this will all end. It's realism, not defeatism, and it's also accompanied by the call for allies to maintain or increase support

    Post edited by rogber on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 453 ✭✭thereitisgone


    Most Russians think like this, they have been shown to be a third world military force and they couldnt even contemplate admitting that the west has superior military so its just simpler to be Chinas lapdog



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,473 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    This is shocking.


    How can they be so naive and not prepare properly?



  • Site Banned Posts: 899 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    The websites on the list have different levels of bias, from constant criticism of the West, choosing only negative information about Ukraine and positive coverage of Russia, to spreading well-known Russian fakes and harsh Kremlin propaganda quoting Putin’s state media. The most radical sources also propagate global conspiracy theories, stigmatize the West and its political leaders, and predict its collapse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,235 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    The A-50 was there for repairs. Apparently a new type of drone with a bigger warhead is causing chaos for russian defences. No confirmation yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    No talk of a new counteroffensive... I wonder why:

    Asked whether Ukraine had plans for another attempt at a counteroffensive this year, he said: “We have a plan, a clear plan. Several plans will be prepared because of information leaks.”

    You should let him know!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,966 ✭✭✭rogber


    I missed that, and stand corrected. I also expect because of last year's failure this one is being trumpeted less in advance. Wise move, let actions speak this time

    Post edited by rogber on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,223 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    I've a few thoughts on western countries finally saying they could enter Ukraine.

    1. It might be a warning to Putin not to pull another mass mobilisation post election which would probably help them take large chunks of Ukraine especially if US aid doesn't resume and Trump wins.

    2. The west planned on doing this all along but waited for the Russian army to take huge losses, especially in terms of air and naval assets and missile stock depletion before going in which will mean less danger to their troops/jets.

    3. Initially actual western troops could just protect the northern border with Belarus. Stay in western Ukraine and seriously help the logistics on that side. This will free up a lot of Ukrainian man power. If they ever decide to directly intervene I think it will come in the form of long range air strikes on land based targets in Russia itself. Probably targeting artillery, logistical hubs, ammo depots, bridges and air defence.


    4. At most western countries would get involved with artillery and HIMARS strikes. I can't see them putting actual boots on the frontline.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I was going to suggest that. I'm sure expectations are low because of the failed one last year and people won't be building it up (the media, us on here etc...)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Several plans will be prepared because of information leaks

    Kinda shocking this wasn't done first time around; famously the Ww2 Allies went to seriously elaborate, almost insane lengths to confuse the fúck outta the Nazis as to where the inevitable landings would take place (by way of example look up Operation Mincemeat). Not that Normandy was a walkover but it succeeded in part because IIRC it was less expected than other locations, German and axis forces spread across Europe as a result.

    Sometimes you forget just how bootstrapped and naive the Ukrainians have been in spots, lacking a solid military history to avoid making mistakes like this.

    In fact maybe lessons learned, another leak happens, containing dozens of different fake plans to really mess with Russia's heads.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,572 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,572 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Anybody able to translate the captions?

    I'm guessing it's S300 and not patriot launchers, but I'd assume the person posting the video on Twitter would notice?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Will the British need 6 months training?

    Or was that last months excuse from Berlin?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,572 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    No captions on that one. I wonder do the German launchers have German plates?

    Amazing the details people can get from videos.

    So via a random tweet, we can surmise the Germans provided the PAC-2 system and the US the PAC-3 system.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,572 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    How it started, how its going

    GIN81m1X0AAeZ0u.jpeg


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,513 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    Russia seems to be getting a bit of Ukrainian AA equipment at the moment especially over in that direction from adviika. Ukraine are pushing their AA equipment closer to the front to help support their forces against Russian air power that's why Russia lost a lot of planes in that direction lately, but works both ways as Russia are seeing Ukraine move the AA systems around now, Ukraine are moving them closer to the front as Russia are advancing and are using their airpower more in the adviika direction and Ukraine don't have as good positions there so they need to try and neutralise the Russian airpower to help the Ukrainian ground forces to be able to stop being pushed back from there.



This discussion has been closed.
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