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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,852 ✭✭✭zv2


    Russia is in no condition to start another serious war, not least because their economy would collapse as they lose manpower and equipment even faster then they are now.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,111 ✭✭✭Christy42


    The 2% or whatever it is is not actually meant to be hit. It is like any international target, the point is to increase spending in that area. There is nothing magic about the 2% number.


    It also would not reduce US spending because they will want a double guarantee and still have the same resources allocated to Europe. Nato is also there for the US own interests and they will want to be able to defend that themselves if required.


    All Trump has done is announce that if he pushes that Nato will crack. If Putin believes that other countries may follow the US's lead and not follow the Nato pact he will start to pick off smaller countries.


    The current issue is not the size of European militaries which would trounce Russia's, the issue is that not enough of it is in Ukraine at the moment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭Apiarist


    Ah yes, you are absolutely right. Russia is in no condition, and it would be a serious mistake for Russia. But the logical considerations haven't stopped Russia before.

    Imagine that in February 2025, Putin launches an invasion of Estonia and Latvia with a 300 thousand strong poorly equipped, but still very dangerous army. Unless Europe acts now and seriously beefs up Baltic states defenses, these states will be overrun within weeks, as their armies are miniscule. And then Putin would say -- my darling President Trump, how about a deal? I return these Baltic states back to Europe, but you give me Ukraine, disband NATO, and make Europe my bitch. Are you 100% sure Trump won't sell us down the river?

    To prevent this, the EU, not the NATO, must be firm and must lay out explicitly what will happen to Russia if Baltic states are attacked. Do we have a hope for the EU to be decisive?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,621 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    I absolutely agree they are in no condition now. An attack on the Baltic nations in February 2022 would have been different. All these countries have small standing armies, and had minimal NATO troops at the time. That was the point I was making. By the time NATO brought in reinforcements, they'd already have been over-run. And then you are looking at a fairly long war of degradation, with of course the Russians shooting back!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,307 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    @tobefrank321 "Artillery is still an important part of modern warfare"

    It is but moreso if the opposing force has no proper air cover? eg Ukraine. Would I be right in saying that if Ukraine finally got there f16s we could see a sea change in this war? Why its taking SO long with the foot dragging on this ( similar to the German taurus foot dragging ) .. I just dont know nor understand



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 667 ✭✭✭Private Joker


    I watched a very interesting series on youtube about the possibility of a NATO war with Russia https://www.youtube.com/@flatcirclehistory/videos

    Makes for an interesting watch.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,621 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    You cannot win a war with air power alone. You are eventually going to have to go in and fight.

    As the Russians are discovering now, the low flying attack helicoptors and fighter-bombers are very vulnerable near the frontline.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    The US warned Ukraine nearly 2 weeks prior to the Russian invasion. I'm sure that would have been plenty of time for Baltic countries to prepared and NATO to move assets around. More than likely in an overwhelming show of force to deter Russia invading Baltic countries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,621 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Russia had 150k troops on the Ukrainian borders, but then again Ukraine is a massive country.

    Russia would have needed a much smaller contingent for the Baltics. They would have used war games again as the cover.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    The war games cover didn't seem to fool the American intelligence though.

    Russia would need a larger force for the Baltics as by attacking Estonia, they are infact attacking NATO. So using a smaller force to attack Estonia (to fool American intelligence) and then having to use that same small force to repel NATO's response?

    NATO don't even need boots on the ground in Baltic countries to cripple Russia.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,501 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Russian troops started building up at the Ukrainian border a full 12 months before they actually invaded. Do posters think this would not have gone unnoticed and unanswered by NATO if it were to happen close to the border of a NATO member? And in the first year of Biden's presidency?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,180 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    Speculative, and mostly incorrect. Got about half-way through ep2.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,307 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Here is a twist if true. KYIV Independent comment on WALL STREET JOURNAL Claim:

    KYIV INDEPENDENT go on to say this in a reply tweet:

    Claims have previously appeared in other media publications that Ukrainian special forces took part in operations in Sudan and are responsible for strikes against Wagner-backed militants. Kyiv has not publicly confirmed involvement in the war in Sudan.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    In terms of military logistics, 2 weeks is nothing. Mavbe a few rapid reaction forces, who are ready to go at any time, but to defend a country about to be invaded against an army (even a badly prepared Russian army) you will need months, not weeks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,873 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    Another factor to mention is in a conflict with NATO or the EU, members would be far more strict applying sanctions and probably also sanction counties who are doing business with Russia. Would India still deal with them if it meant no Indian companies can deal with the EU. Russia would collapse economically before long.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,307 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Dont think thats the reason. In the recent past Wagner were on the ground in Sudan

    And then a possible reason why UKRAINE gets involved from a current article:

    Analysis: Ukraine's deployment to Sudan aims to show that it can fight Russia abroad whilst also indicating that Kyiv wants to create new allies in Africa.

    It sort of shows that UKRAINE will hunt down Russians wherever they are trying to destabalise across the world



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I'm not saying all of NATO's assets would be on the battlefield within 2 weeks, what I'm saying is NATO wouldn't sit on their hands waiting months and months until everything is in place.

    They are not going to have aircraft within Europe and bombers within the US sitting idle while thousands of tanks and troops are making the slow journey across the Atlantic/Europe.

    It's not like they haven't roleplayed this entire scenario and haven't planned for it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭seenitall


    Time for some lighthearted content again……. Because most fun lovers and party goers know that the best place to celebrate the New Year 2024 is Russia!




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,267 ✭✭✭green daries


    Lads there's two ifs

    IF Russia was stupid enough to attack a nato country and IF nato got off its hands and took the gloves off.

    Ith the both above happened Russia would be bombed into the stone age in a matter of days Russia doesn't have the air power to deal with Ukraine never mind deal with nato



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,568 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Russians just tried to kill Zelensky on his way to meet a Greek government official.


    Edit" link


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,852 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,653 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    What do you mean it is not “meant” to be hit? Does that apply to other requirements like for environmental protection agreements?

    If 2% were not feasible (esp with previous precedent), it would not have been agreed upon.

    Regardless, from a Carnegie report on the matter in 2015:

    • Europeans underestimate the political significance of 2 percent in the U.S. debate over security commitments to Europe.

    • Americans overestimate the political significance of 2 percent among Europeans struggling with austerity and divergent threat perceptions, which make it difficult to increase their defense commitments.


    The problem is that when the US is the backbone of the organization Europeans underestimating the American political effect is far more consequential than Americans overestimating European effects, as we are seeing today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,843 ✭✭✭weisses


    The US is again is proven to be an unreliable partner, they go in guns blazing but back out on a whim and leave coalition partners deal with the fallout .. Just remember the Kurds in Syria/Turkey, the shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and now Ukraine. The US wants to be the big player on the world stage, its time they take responsibility and finish what they start.

    NATO provides the US with allies and because of its military power holds an almost guaranteed leading role in the alliance

    NATO provides the US an economic boost by completely dominating arms sales to members and other friendly countries

    NATO provides for the US to have a great deal of influence and power on joining countries.

    The 2% norm needs to be reached but grandstanding lead by that sexual predator, former president is laughable.

    The US without NATO means the US loses a great deal of its influence on the world stage.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,568 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Well, a NATO Prime Minister was nearly struck by a Russian missile.

    Who is escalating things again?

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,501 ✭✭✭✭josip


    OT but the US spent years and billions in Afghanistan trying to train and handover to an Afghan army. I'm not saying it was done for altruistic purposes, but the collapse when they left was down to the (lack of) willingness of the Afghans to fight the Taliban.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,307 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Yesterday we heard Yulia Navalnaya declined the invite to be at the annual State of the Union speech in front of Congress tomorrow. And we were wondering why. Well here you go, THIS is why it seems.

    Washington Post reports that Olena Zelenska turned down Biden’s invitation to his annual State of the Union speech in front of Congress tomorrow.

    The reason for the snub is that Biden wanted to seat Zelenska next to Alexei Navalny’s widow Yulia.

    So what was Biden and Co up to here one wonders??



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,307 ✭✭✭aidanodr




This discussion has been closed.
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