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What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    I know we tend to be quite dismissive of polling in this thread (or at least polling that doesn't support our positions and preconceptions), but there was a truly awful NYT\Siena poll this weekend.

    Key findings:

    1. With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters.
    2. Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.
    3.  About as many Democratic primary voters said Mr. Biden should not be the nominee in 2024 as said he should be — with opposition strongest among voters younger than 45 years old.
    4. Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden. In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump.
    5. One of the more ominous findings for Mr. Biden in the new poll is that the historical edge Democrats have held with working-class voters of color who did not attend college continues to erode.Mr. Biden won 72 percent of those voters in 2020, according to exit polling, providing him with a nearly 50-point edge over Mr. Trump. Today, the Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden only narrowly leading among nonwhite voters who did not graduate from college: 47 percent to 41 percent.

    TLDR: voters are highly unenthusiastic about Biden.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago

    That should be alarming for Trump. He has picked up scant new voters. In addition to many Republicans coming knives-out for his presidency, many of whom pledging to vote against him for the sake of protecting the democratic processes, he can likely not expect to pull in the same number of votes as he did in 2020.

    Exit polling is very different to a Times/Siena poll. And disapproval is not a lost vote:

    And they are among dozens of former Trump officials who have criticized the conduct of their former boss. Those who saw him up close have called the former president a “wannabe dictator” (former Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Mark A. Milley), a “consummate narcissist” (former attorney general William P. Barr), and a “moron” (former secretary of state Rex Tillerson, reportedly). But Barr reportedly has suggested that a second Trump administration — which he likened to “playing Russian roulette with the country,” according to Axios — would be less dangerous to the country than a second Biden administration. Voting for Biden, the outlet quoted him as saying during a speech in Florida, would constitute “outright national suicide.”

    Which raises a question: Just how serious are some of the anti-Trump Republicans about keeping him out of the Oval Office? Serious enough that these dissenting former officials would actually vote for Biden?


    Ty Cobb would. “If the time comes and a vote for Joe is required to stop Trump, then I’d grudgingly vote for Biden,” Cobb, who served as a special counsel in the Trump White House, said in an interview — adding, though, that he fears “this sad choice perpetuates the domestic divide as well as the substantial risk we continue to face internationally.” (Despite serving in Trump’s White House, Cobb says he never voted for him.)

    Though some are content to 'throw your vote away'

    John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, would not. “My focus, right now, is to make sure he doesn’t get the nomination,” Bolton told The Washington Post. But if it does come down to Trump vs. Biden, he said, “I’ll do what I did in 2020: I wrote in the name of a conservative Republican.”

    Untitled Image

    "TLDR: voters are highly unenthusiastic about Biden."

    This was also largely true in 2020. But again here, we're very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And I said many times, I'd vote for an inanimate carbon rod before I vote for Trump (and yes, I've written that in on many a ballot in the past when nobody worthy was running)




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,533 ✭✭✭combat14


    "Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden.


    In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump."


    What's alarming about retaining 97% of past voters while gaining 10% of the opposition voters who is down 17% of their past vote?


    ultimately in the US the numbers don't count as much as we think it all comes down to the college electoral votes and a few key swing states


    now where swing states are at on both trump and biden in 2024 is another matter perhaps someone else knows



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,033 ✭✭✭Panrich


    There’s surely no way that Trump has won over any voters in the past 4 years!

    If people weren’t mad enough to vote for him in 2020, then I can’t see how anyone else has since turned around and gone you know what; I didn’t vote for him last time around and I know that since then he’s started an insurrection, has been found to be a rapist, is facing 91 charges in the courts but I’m jumping on the Trump bandwagon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,295 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    There's no indication that Trump has gained those votes. Also I'd have a strong suspicion that plenty of voters that Biden has lost are likely to vote for him in the event of a rerun of 2020.


    Also worth remembering that the Biden campaign is getting a huge amount of small donations. So I'd suspect there's plenty of support out there. Also I'd equally have a suspicion that there's at least a ten percent drop in Trump's support from 2020. You get voters that are simply uncomfortable with stating their position. That was pre insurrection etc.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,136 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    I also think a lot of those polled are saying they would prefer Biden to be replaced. He is too old.

    But when the election comes around they will have a simple choice. Biden or Trump.

    I haven't seen anything to suggest that anyone will swap from voting Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,519 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I swear to god: blank out the year and you'd be forgiven for presuming it's a 2016 stump speech. Even the branding hasn't changed. Never seen a political campaign so lazily repetitive and devoid of substance while also being a one man manifestation of the 2 Minute Hate



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,519 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Hard to have political substance when you don't have a single cogent policy....

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    If you look at the polling, they're actually saying two things about Biden:

    1. We think he's too old. A plurality of the electorate hold this opinion.
    2. We think he's doing a bad job (his favourability ratings are terrible).

    You could get away with one of these two, but not two. Even against a candidate as uniquely flawed as Trump.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,136 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Weren't Trumps unfavourably ratings really poor in 2019? And yet 74m people voted for him.

    So I'm not sure that it equates to supporting the other guy.

    If this was 2016, when Trump was unknown as POTUS, then Bidens unfavourable ratings would be a bigger problem.

    But in a two party system the vote is going to come down to least worst. Its why the GOP going ahead with Trump is such a terrible decision. Pretty much anyone else would stroll to victory against Biden. But Trump is disliked as well so even though many might believe that Biden is bold old and a bad POTUS, the only alternative is Trump and nothing has changed (and at positively) for Trump to win new voters



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    Ah it's obvious to anyone he's being sarcastic



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,289 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    It baffles me as to how Trump can spout multiple malapropisms, misnomers and genuinely irrational bullshit but, it's apparently Biden that's supposedly sundowning🤷‍♂️

    The Dems need to get much more deliberate in their messaging. They need to highlight the successes of Biden policies, trumpet the economy, the infrastructure bill, tackling redlining and so much more. Genuine policy and legislative successes that put Trump and GOP to shame.

    Politico runs down a list of them, but it's not exhaustive. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/02/joe-biden-30-policy-things-you-might-have-missed-00139046



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    That one time a smart, urbane black man got the best of him, years ago, yet racist old Gramps can't let it go.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭I.R.Y.E.D




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,192 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    If a qustion was ever asked about it, I am sure a competent Press Secretary would say that Trump believes that Biden is Obama's puppet and has been pulling the strings, hence the comment. That would satisfy his supporters and many swing voters.

    I would however, love to see a news anchor ask Trump directly and see what mental gymnastics he does, or watch him shut down the suggestion as fake news.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,928 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump.


    How f**king thick can a population be.



  • Subscribers, Paid Member Posts: 43,711 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    'murica

    Fcuk yeah!!



  • Posts: 24,207 ✭✭✭✭ Paloma Whispering Senselessness


    Like most I’ve number of relatives & friends in Amerikay. The Californian cousins are extremely intelligent sorts, study Shakespeare, fluent in Spanish, have a very broad knowledge of history, geography & culture. Definitely not Trump voters. On the other hand I have a different branch of relatives m living East, one a police officer, very wa hearted to me who. We only discovered each other through genealogy, she offered me a com any time, very pro Black, Jewish etc, but loves Trump for his stop of uncontrolled influx, also very Catholic in practice and belief. My friend in Florida is exactly the same as that cousin.She emigrated from Dublin, married an American.. These are not all bad people, in fact they are extremely warm hearted to me anyway. It’s a complex scenario.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,490 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,729 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    Looking forward to hearing how Haleys primary win is actually good for Trump.

    Or will the "stolen" conspiracies start now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,519 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Indeed!! This will rattle oul Donny!

    GHyrfsMWQAAiw2w.jpeg

    Well done Nancy Pelosi!

    Post edited by everlast75 on

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Is DC the "bluest" state contested so far? I've only half paid attention to the specific states.

    Gonna sting all the same, King Trump thinking he was universally loved but doubtless it'll turn into a "drain the swamp" narrative.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,519 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    We are fully within the Jim Jones territory now.


    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,070 ✭✭✭ronjo


    No no, its a badge of honour to lose the Swamp apparently.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,729 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    "Drain the swamp" is getting to be a very complicated slogan for Trumpy to manage these days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,070 ✭✭✭ronjo


    Its really not..... Everything about him is lies and only because he his trying to drain it.

    He will just double down and the cult will believe every single word.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,729 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    Yes but hes more likely to say "Drain the Obama" or "Putin her up" or "Lock Lincoln up"



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,396 ✭✭✭✭briany


    It's the one state I suppose he would "expect" to lose. Sure, he won't like it but he can spin a narrative around it.

    Maybe a bigger story was Haley saying that she didn't currently feel obligated to endorse Trump. She framed this as being talk of someone who lost the race, as opposed to it being a principle, but it's an interesting clue as to how she might be positioning herself. Outright refusing to kiss the ring would probably hurt her if she wants to retain her current job, but that could be a sword she's willing to fall on in order to make a stand. It would mean she has more balls than Ted Cruz for a start.



This discussion has been closed.
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