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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The core voters of FF and FG would be much more benign when it comes to immigration in the main.

    For how long? And the core in both is getting ever smaller. How many points can they afford to drop over it if they cannot get control.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,323 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Need to talk to SF members Francie.

    This was last years Ard Fheis

    https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-ard-fheis-analysis-6220512-Nov2023/

    It does feel like we’re going to win next time. It looks like there’s going to be change and it looks like we’re not going to need Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.


    This was a point also made by the party’s finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty who told members in his speech that the focus has to be about electing enough Sinn Féin TDs to form a government without Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil after the next general election.


    After the next election, Sinn Féin “will have the power”, he said. 

    “It will be the biggest bloc, we’d have most of the voters on our side,” he added.

    There is some expectation that after the next general election a rainbow coalition could be formed, with some predicting a left-leaning government with Sinn Féin at the helm.


    The party speakers hammered home this message: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had been in power for too long, that it was time for change, and Sinn Féin is ready to lead. 

    In her closing speech, McDonald said: 

    A new government without Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for the first time in a hundred years. Just imagine that. That would be the very best outcome from the General Election.”

    Shame that they blew it by being incompetent.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 242 ✭✭rowantree18


    The problem is that there's an interesting disconnect between what SF says it stands for and the type of voter they actually attract. As well as the fact that SF itself is an anomaly - a left wing, socialist yet nationalist party.

    A lot of the voters are left wing in a wanting "one for everybody in the audience " kind of way, but nationalist and right wing in an "as long as it's me and mine getting the one for everybody in the audience "......



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,323 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The next GE is mere months away now. Those 20% for both FF and FG will vote accordingly.

    It's no harm that FG don't go into government next time out tbh, maybe they need a refresh, some new blood and ideas. It's the way things go.

    But SF haemorrhaging support when they have never hard their arse in a ministerial merc, is quite concerning, don't you think?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,837 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Latest polling puts the 3 parties of Government collectively somewhere in the mid 40's depending on which poll you are looking at.

    That is a significant improvement on where they were collectively 9-12 months ago.

    Historically , both FG and FF tend to get a higher % of seats than their polling numbers due to the nature of transfer and vote management etc. so they are absolutely in the ball game to retain power as it stands right now.

    I doubt any of them are looking at anyone other than each other right now in terms of partnership.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,413 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    The polls confirm the trend of a large drop in support for Sinn Fein.

    Immigration and their rubbish on the 300 grand house has exposed their soft support.

    What's clear from these polls is that we're going to have another scattered Dail with loads of parties and loads of independents and months of political talks with parties who are basically the same.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


     


    Those 20% for both FF and FG will vote accordingly.

    On such arrogance have many fallen.

    SF are haemorrhaging putative support, this poll has them still 4% points up on GE performance.

    Long long way to go until we see what their actual support is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Maybe Quin Dub, maybe.

    But I'm a firm believer from experience that there is many a slip betwixt cup and lip.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,837 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Of course , anything could happen to expand or collapse any groups support.

    However as a snapshot of where things stand right here right now , SF would not be part of the next Government discussions as the current government would have a decent shot of being returned as is or perhaps needing the support of a few like minded Independents.

    That is a big shift in the landscape from a few months ago..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    However as a snapshot of where things stand right here right now 

    Yes, I agree, right now, being the operative phrase.

    You assume a number of things, that all is well in both FG FF re: each other.

    And that the position 'right now' maintains.

    Even if an election were called right now, you could see a huge shift during the campaign.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,837 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Again , of course.

    However we can only discuss the information to hand as they are the only facts available, and the facts as they are right now show that SF are in trouble and have gone from having a very strong chance of being in Government and even potentially having full control (and not the "power-sharing" agreement that FF/FG have) to not being involved at all in the formation of the next Government.

    Again - everything could change in an instant so further obfuscation and deflection stating that is unnecessary , but that does not for a moment alter todays reality.

    SF are in trouble , trouble that has been accelerating in the last month or two and they need to work out why it's happening and how to stop it if they want to get back to being a realistic option for Government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,323 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Correct, from the talk of

    1. "SF will get an over all majority if we keep this up"

    to

    2. "MLMD, the peoples Taoiseach.."

    to

    3. "Well I guess we can go into power with FF.."

    to

    4. "Another stint in opposition it is then..."


    We are somewhere between 3 and 4 at the moment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,935 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The trend is your friend, as the saying goes.

    Sinn Fein have run out of ideas. Harder on immigration, they lose votes to the Social Democrats and the government parties. Softer on immigration, they lose votes to the independents.

    Even their current policies leave them wide open to confusion. On the one hand MLMD is calling on the government to support South Africa against Israel in the ICJ, shout at Biden on St. Patrick's Day and expel the Israeli ambassador, all on behalf of the Palestinians, but next week, if Roderic O'Gorman sends 150 young male Palestinian refugees to Ballina, MLMD will be telling all and sundry there wasn't enough consultation and it is not a suitable location.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,197 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    That's the gas thing. A lot of hardcore SF supporters are pro palestine but anti refugee, so wouldnt take them here anyway



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,323 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    True, but let's be honest about this. SF supporters and that type of voter, who SF attract are not the brightest sparks to begin with.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    To listen to some of the triumphalism here you would be forgiven for thinking SF were down to 16 or 17%.

    They are on 28%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,197 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    It's probably controversial to say that in these days of cancel culture, but TBH I agree 110% with all of that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Bit of a slap in the face for those claiming the Shinners are all operating to the Army Council orders or else.

    Couple of hundred attending a meeting applauding the protesters as they leave.

    Should they not be towing the party line in fear? 😁



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,837 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    That's the message you took from that clip????

    Wow...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,197 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    That looks like someone disrupting the meeting without being on the agenda and being rightfully told where to go. Whether their cause was palestinian or israeli or bhutanese they would have gotten the same actions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Wow what?

    I am fully aware of the conversation/argument going on within SF at the moment.

    Some think that going is a good thing others want a boycott. Views range in levels of intensity.

    That meeting shows me that the people there are comfortable with both views, prepared to sit and listen to the leadership and the Palestinian Ambassador (who supports the visit) while also seeing the other side, the protestors.

    I didn't see any unnecessary force and the applause was genuine and good to see. The protestors seemed happy to leave having made their protest.

    What did you see?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,737 ✭✭✭mikethecop


    How so ? the army council have only the interests of the army council in mind, people would do well to remember that when they thin of sf as a democratic party.

    dissenting voices will be silenced with force and intimidation whenever they are inconvenient



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The protestors were challenging the leadership's decision. Do the audience look like they are in fear of the leadership when they applaud the protest? Do you think any of them are intimidated into silence?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,694 ✭✭✭standardg60


    There was a smattering of applause for boycott the Whitehouse but the vast majority was for them being removed.

    That's what I saw anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    How did you separate out what was for what?

    No, doubt there was mixed opinion there, Which gives the lie to a hive mind, controlled party.

    Also there was no heavy handed removal, just protestors ushered out to allow the meeting continue which happens everywhere.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,011 ✭✭✭pureza


    How could you be FULLY aware?Comhairle meetings you attend? 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You got me Pureza.

    I am fully aware of the public debate within SF which is not hidden.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,737 ✭✭✭mikethecop


    lol ,

    no one knows who the leadership of sf really are sure, army council ? mi5? oe of the crime gangs sf are aligned with ? who ever is paying the most these days , all very shadowy and sinister dont you think ?

    its a short video , what happened next, were there doors called to late at night by some of the heavies in the video ? wouldn't be the first time would it ?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Poor old Sinn Fein, not sure who are what they are in support of



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