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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Comments

  • #1652
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,348 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    06z GFS just rolling out seems to have an Easterly forming well in FI, will post properly once the run is finished. Its in the bag....



  • #1653
    Dazler97
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,302 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693933#Comment_121693933

    For when Exactly? hope it's still within first 2 weeks of February 😀



  • #1654
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,411 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It's a bit of a failed easterly if it verified. Not long fetch with winds in from the east over central Europe but sourced from the SE of Europe, too much mild air mixing.



  • #1655
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,348 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Gonzo is probably right, its as per below, better than nothing...

    GFS on 300124for 120224.png GFS on 300124for 120224 850s.png




  • #1656
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,411 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The EC46 is going for an extensive cold spell beginning mid February and lasting into 1st week of March with winds in from the north initially and becoming more easterly as we head towards the end of February. Right now I'm not buying into a 3 week cold spell. We've been here before very recently with models showing weeks upon weeks of extensive blocking only for us to end up with a few cold days in the end and very much on the edge of cold and the Atlantic coming back very quickly. We shall see.

    The first half of February still on track to be very mild so any cold spell we do get in the second half is going to have to be a direct hit major cold spell to unravel the warmer than average temperature anomaly that is likely to be set up first half of February.



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  • #1657
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,606 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I think I have model fatigue syndrome. Prior to the last cold spell I was following every run. Any run I see showing cold now I expect it to be scuppered by iberian heights or a butterfly flapping its wing in Chile causing less mountain torque to happen somewhere which in turn prevents us going into the freezer.



  • #1658
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    After the last spell I didn't really expect anything till 2nd half of Feb anyway. So I haven't been following the models too closely of late.



  • #1659
    Eibhir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    Since our January cold spell ended I pop in here for a glimpse of the FI thread every 2nd day.

    I won't buy my ticket for any train until at 120hrs. And it's pre 21 February.

    Enjoying the longer evenings.



  • #1660
    Dazler97
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,302 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121694575#Comment_121694575

    Ye I'm only taking all this with a pinch of salt hopefully we get snow ❄️ as I'm in Dublin for the next 2 or 3 weeks



  • #1661
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696027#Comment_121696027

    GFS op run is looking interesting with attempts at blocking highs in the Atlantic. A change is certainly afoot post first week of Feb. Negative AO and neutral (at best) NAO.

    www.weatheire.com



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  • #1662
    ascophyllum
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭ascophyllum


    Massive temperature anomaly over Canada:

    https://twitter.com/Ventuskycom/status/1752308746179559518?t=9jC08iGW2pv1oWMtYB31Lg&s=19


    It must have some downstream effect for us in killing off the jetstream for a while anyway? Am I right in thinking our februarys are usually dominated by strong lows associated with the cold spilling out from Canada and cranking up the jet?



  • #1663
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696072#Comment_121696072

    yes. that would be the norm for us in Feb

    www.weatheire.com



  • #1664
    Dazler97
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,302 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696042#Comment_121696042

    I'll keep an eye on models but not getting excited by any means but it's a start



  • #1665
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696137#Comment_121696137

    Nor me. GFS picks up trends very well at a distance for the reasons we have mentioned here before. It is worth noting how the GFS is already picking up on the negative AO and neutral NAO for the period.

    www.weatheire.com



  • #1666
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696072#Comment_121696072

    Similar madness to the temperatures in parts of the southern hemisphere last summer ( their winter). If these events aren't serious red flags I don't know what are.



  • #1667
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696072#Comment_121696072

    This graphic is even more stark

    GFG4hN_XsAIDW7w.jpg


    www.weatheire.com



  • #1668
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The ECM follows the GFS op by extending heights over Greenland and flattening the jetstream which would be in keeping with the neutral NAO outlook.

    www.weatheire.com



  • #1669
    Dazler97
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,302 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696405#Comment_121696405

    What's causing this ? Sudden stratospheric warming or just fluke



  • #1670
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696819#Comment_121696819

    I would say a strong El Niño in the eastern Pacific Ocean is a primary cause of these conditions.

    www.weatheire.com



  • #1671
    snowgal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,826 ✭✭✭snowgal


    Well I’ll take the hype on this one, I feel it’s the last of chances, and I feel there’s something brewing just right in this set up! Im aboard the train 😁❄️



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  • #1672
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696841#Comment_121696841

    Surely also climate change in conjunction with el nino is part of the reason.



  • #1673
    Dazler97
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,302 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696841#Comment_121696841

    Oh of course I had forgotten that ,wonder if those warm temperatures will have a knock on effect with our weather be it mild or cold 🥶 I don't know



  • #1674
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,348 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696861#Comment_121696861

    I'm not sure they've actually laid the track for the train, let alone built the train, really let alone sold tickets and let anyone on board yet! But best be early I suppose....



  • #1675
    pureza
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,912 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121697632#Comment_121697632

    Are you sure steam has even been invented 😂



  • #1676
    almostthere12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 392 ✭✭almostthere12


    Some quite interesting evolutions of the low pressure swinging our way around 8th and 9th Feb.

    The ECM and GFS yesterday on the 12zs went with a slider and a Greenland high, other models have it bowling right through us as does the GFS this morning. However the CFS has another evolution again, the low is forced north which produces a Scandi high and then a prolonged easterly from around the 21st of Feb into early March:


    image.png image.png




  • #1677
    bloopy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,328 ✭✭✭bloopy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121697632#Comment_121697632

    Got a box with some wheels drawn on it.

    Taking it out later on.



  • #1678
    PukkaStukka
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121699145#Comment_121699145

    I'm having a crap day but this made me smile 🤣



  • #1679
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Cold marches into eastern and northern Europe toward the end of the first week of February. Temperatures remaining above average for Ireland and Britain during the same period. On Day 10, IE/UK remain much milder than other Northern Hemisphere locations at the same latitude.

    Untitled.jpg


    www.weatheire.com



  • #1680
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The Canadian GEM model signals a turn to colder weather from the end of the first week of February. The jetstream takes a more southerly trajectory allowing colder air to seep south. Very much in line with the forecast deep negative AO and a neutral NAO.

    animcmu9.gif

    The snow cover chart based on the op run. The ensembles will be out later and the likelihood of the op run being a cold outlier are high.

    gem-16-240.png


    www.weatheire.com



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  • #1681
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,411 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    At this stage I feel February for the most part will be mild and Atlantic dominated. Second half of February looks less mild with more average temperatures but still will probably be Atlantic dominated for the most part with maybe a glancing blow of cold from the north. I'm not expecting much for February at this stage. This could easily end up being another completely snowless winter at least here in Meath and most of the snow starved east, midlands and south. No doubt there will be flakes in March and April.

    The majority of our proper cold and snowy periods were often picked up in the models 3 weeks prior such as the December 2010 and February/March 2018. At the moment I'm seeing very little sign of anything remotely exciting in the models. If there was something really exciting for mid February into the 3th week of February we would be seeing it already picking up by the GFS. All I'm seeing at best is 24 hour topplers from the north with the Atlantic rolling back in. Hope i'm wrong but I broke all my straws about 3 weeks ago and will buy more for next winter when the time comes.



This discussion has been closed.
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