Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

It was totally relevant. That’s why I mentioned it.

Amazing that I've given you a detailed break down of this on numerous occasions, going back several years. You've never been close to a rebuttal, every time you disappear for a little bit and then pop back in with the, 'Ireland has never been unified' nonsense as if it never happened.

Yes; Ireland absolutely was Unified before the Anglo-Norman invasion, yes it was a different political situation that is difficult to compare to modern day ideas of Unification (it was an awful long time ago after all,so a more feudal system), but even with the most cynical of views, the position of Ard Rí existed and at many points existed without opposition.

I'm not going to bother my arse with the long, detailed breakdowns I've given of this before as you'll pop along in a few months with the same nonsense again anyway.

The Anglo-Norman invasion. Invasion? You mean invite.

you make my point for me. The kingdoms were feuding and the king of Leinster invited strong bow over to assist him.

if this is your best attempt at evidencing a unified island, then I despair

ps would you be happy if OWC formed a wee kingdom in the event of unification?

Yeh, Unionism sundered probably forever.

Very practical.

Cant believe you are trying to set up a victory for electoral disaster now as well.

Loony tunes.

I did.

The notion a hammering in an election has no practical affect is just loony tune stuff. A fractured Unionist body politic? Forced to stamp your feet as everyone else out votes you?

Not an ounce of sense in your theory. Not surprising given the blind alleys you have gone up.

So the summary of what am saying is, going forward I think Brexit will have lesss and less negative impact on ni. The sea checks will get less and the chill factor on nationalists will fade away. I will be, as you were, in due course

Perhaps you're too quick to be reassured. While there has not been a rise in the percentage who say they would vote for a united Ireland, there has been a marked decline in the percentage who say that they would vote to remain in the UK — down from 60-65% in polls before the Brexit referendum to 51% in the latest poll. A unionist should surely be concerned that majority support for the union is, apparently, hanging by a thread?

Obviously, the difference is explained by a rising proportion of "don't knows", and this parallels a rising proportion of people claiming neither a British nor an Irish identity, voting for parties that are neither unionist nor nationalist, etc.

This group is open to considering a united Ireland in a way that the group saying they will vote for the union is not. Whether they would, in the event, vote for a UI may depend on the details of the UI proposal that is put before them. They don't show up as UI supporters now, in part, because there is no UI proposal for them to consider and affirm or reject.

This trend hasn't yet (in my view) continued to the point where enough of them would be drawn to a concrete UI proposal to result in a border poll voting for a UI; if there's a border poll in the next couple of years it will be lost.

But unionists should still be concerned. There is no reason (beyond wishful thinking) to suppose that the trend will stop or reverse at this point; it could continue. Unionists would do well to reflect on whether this trend is the result of (a) the policies, positions, attitudes, etc of the British government; or (b) the policies, positions, attitudes, etc, of political unionism or of unionist representatives; or (c) demography or (d) some combination of all of these things. And they should also consider what they can do about any of these things to try to alter or reverse the trend.

Restoration of Stormont (if indeed it is restored) on the basis of the deal that Donaldson has secured (if indeed he has secured a deal) isn't, I think, going to be a game-changer in itself. Unionism faces a deeper crisis that that. To my mind, this whole episode reveals a deep streak of decadence in unionism. I don't mean decadence in the sense of cocaine binges and partying while the world collapses; I mean decadence in the sense of decay; a profound loss of confidence in the future. One of the striking features of this whole episode is that unionists were clearly terrified to ask their supposed friends in British politics to stand by the union and to prioritise its health and security; they knew that if they asked that the answer would be "no" and they didn't want to hear that answer spoken out loud. And that still seems to be the case. We have the absurd and pathetic spectacle of unionists publicly blaming IRL and EU for not protecting them from the British government's Brexit plans, when the whole logic of both unionism and brexitry is that neither IRL nor EU have any business to do that, or should be in any position to do that. They support the union, while making little secret of the fact that the union is not working for them.

Based on the limited information/speculation that we have, the Donaldson deal looks as though it might contain seeds that, if suitably nurtured, offer the prospect of some regrowth of unionist self-confidence. What the deal acheives is very, very limited; but it does show two things. First, the UK accepts that the way to avoid hardening the sea border is for GB not to diverge from EU. And, secondly, the UK accepts that some degree of GB alignment with the EU is a price that should be paid in order to avoid hardening the sea border.

This is, as I say, very little. A lot of unionist critics of the deal point out that what they want is not for the sea border to get no harder than it already is; it's for the sea border to be softened to nothing. The logic of this deal, though, points to the only feasible way of doing that; for GB to realign towards the EU. Unionists should now say, out loud, in as many words, that this is what should happen, because the union is more important than Brexit. And they should stop toadying to their British "friends" who prioritise Brexit over the union. That would be the first step towards the very necessary rebuilding of unionist self-confidence and self-respect. While it won't lead to the British government falling over backwards and applying for EEA membership, it will at least represent unionists doing their bit to build space in UK politics for those who that that this is right and necessary. If unionists won't play their part in trying to protect and strengthen the union, they can't whinge about the failures of others.

Don’t agree with much of the early part of your post, but I do agree completely with the latter points. The problem is the arrogance of the DUP will not allow them to admit they were wrong and seek greater alignment with the EU to further preserve the union.

I haven’t looked at polling trends for awhile, but I don’t think there is any worrying trend for unionists. The only thing I would agree with Francie on is that it has been a shitshow for seven years. And we hear endlessly how wonderful life could be in a united Ireland, we see the traditional Catholic population grow significantly in numbers. And yet they are 1,000,000 miles from winning a vote and apparently not even closing the gap.

I believe even the figures you see of those that will vote for United Ireland are inflated. Most people I speak to whether unionist or nationalist have no desire for change as dramatic as a united Ireland. If Brexit done one thing it taught everyone to be very very careful about voting for a aspirational change that you cannot undo. So Brexit, in a strange way, has made a positive United ireland vote even more unlikely

At the moment, without a plan to vote for, people are not willing to say they would vote for a UI. But significantly majorities in both jurisdictions want a BP.

Why would they want a BP called?

Because they either want the Union secured or they want to see a plan for a UI produced.

This bit of research from Arins is relevant too I think. A UI is growing as a priority in the South.

Unfortunately not practical or cost-effective. The only practical and cost-effective federal solution is one based on the existing border with Northern Ireland.

It is proposed by those who are so bitter about unification they will hold out for anything else.

It’s anti-the northern Irish people or those they have tried to other all their lives.

They’ll even ally with the most belligerent fundamentalist Unionists/Loyalists to thwart what the Irish people want if it comes to it.

The idea that Stormont can work when it never has is in the realm of fantasy. Partition made the north ungovernable and a failure. It never worked for even close to all it’s people.

They're some crack the the Dup

A tiny minority who shot themselves in the foot over brexit dictating to the rest of the island

Their day will be over eventually

There are ways to make federalism work.