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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,107 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Nonsensical rubbish. You can't consider the present without acknowledging the past. Countries like Denmark, Austria, Sweden etc. have centuries upon centuries of wealth built up to draw on - they had empires. We have come a long way, and when you do that, your infrastructure struggles to keep up.

    Ireland is not suffering from literally the worst housing crisis in the history of the state - that is overblown hyperbolic hysteria. Things were far worse in the 1930s and 1940s when people lived in slum housing and shacks.

    The quality of life for people in this country is getting better every year. More holidays, more nights out, more new cars, more consumption, better education, longer lifespans, by every single measure, life is getting better. Never let the truth get in the way of one of your moans.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,265 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    We are fairly low by European standards however. See chart below:

    image.png


    Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/867687/total-number-dwellings-per-one-thousand-citizens-europe/

    On this chart, only Poloand and Greece in the EU are lower though there may be others not included. But I take your point that better utilization could made of existing housing stock though the benefit, unfortunately, would only be temporary.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    That's a relative measure. Sure we might be lower compared to other European countries, but having 415 houses per 1000 people does not indicate crisis levels of shortage of housing stock. Far from it.

    That's my point - it's very easy to find headlines telling you that the current housing problem is simply caused by a current shortage of built housing stock, but look a bit deeper and you'll struggle to find any data to back that idea up.

    It might seem like a pedantic and irrelevant point, given the lack of stock on the market, but as long as the bulk of people believe that we have a crisis shortage of existing housing stock, we'll never be able to consider potential solutions to more efficiently utilize the existing stock.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,441 ✭✭✭✭Geuze



    "Healthcare is not funded enough"

    !!!!!

    We overspend on healthcare, relative to the age profile of our population.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2


    We have more demand for houses than we have houses available. Thats evident from the sky high rental and purchase prices, the very low numbers of properties on either market, the huge numbers on social housing lists, and the very high numbers of homeless people. Thats the core of the issue, which does mean there quite literally aren't enough houses for people.

    In an ideal world where every house is utilised to the maximum of its potential, where there are zero vacant homes, zero holiday homes, zero airbnbs etc this mightn't be the case. But thats not the case in the real world.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,265 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    It is a contributing factor though. Relatively low housing units per capita mean that there's a smaller pool from which houses will be put on the market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Denmark or Austria are not using "centuries of wealth" to pay for current government spending. Spending to build housing, or pay police, or pay nurses comes from current government revenue. Which Ireland currently has more of per capita than almost any country on Earth, both on a total and surplus per capita basis. But our current government has decided to not spend this money, which is purely ideological. And the results can be seen all around us.

    If you think the quality of life for people in this country is getting better every year then you've clearly missed every poll, or statistic, on life in Ireland in recent years. People are drinking less, schools can't get staff, hospital waiting lists are through the roof, and home ownership is at its lowest point in decades. Those are all verifiable, hard, statistics. Opinion polls also completely back this up, as would any common sense - nobody with any contact with the health service, with gardai, with teachers, would tell you they're doing well currently.

    By hey, don't take my word for it. Why do you think SF are currently polling as the #1 party by a large margin even with ABC1 voters? The richest, most educated, well to do voters in the state? Do you think its because they've all become Republican Socialists, or is it perhaps bcause current government policy is very obviously failing?

    The starting wage for a nurse in Dublin in 2024 is €33k per year. Do you think thats a reasonable starting wage for someone with a college education, working a difficult, essential job?

    Do you not think if we perhaps paid them more it would 1) ease our current recruitment/retention crisis, helping everyone in the state and 2) just be morally the right thing to do?

    That aside, our overall healthcare spending isn't remotely excessive. We're in the middle of the OECD pack, very much inline with our wealthy peers:

    image5.png


    Post edited by Blut2 on


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Sure, but it's still only relatively low. Not crisis low. There are many other reasons making more of a contribution to the lack of turnover of existing stock.

    In any event it doesn't answer the question - we know what the current population is, we know what the current habitable housing stock is, we know what the average household size is so how come we don't know how many houses we are currently short of in the housing stock?

    Our current population is 5,149,139. How many houses do we need to accommodate that population?

    No shortage of people who will tell you we need to build 30/40/50/60k houses a year every year for decades or else we will never be able to accommodate our entire population.

    But how come there is nobody who can tell you how what the current deficit in our housing stock is based on our current population?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    On the relativity of the number of houses per 1000 people stat, it's interesting to compare the current figure of 415 relative to previous figures in Ireland.

    Ireland_housing_statistics_1971_2020.JPG

    Source: https://www.finfacts-blog.com/2021/02/key-irish-housing-statistics-1971-2020.html

    Yes it was higher in 2011, but the apparent crisis at the time was one of oversupply, not a shortage.

    It was much the same in 2006. High prices for sure, but plenty of houses to buy and rent on the market.

    It was significantly lower in 2002 and 1996, but again there was plenty of stock on the market to buy and rent at that time.

    Yes, household sizes were higher in 2002 and 1996, but the current issue is lack of turnover. That's nothing to do with household size.

    And yes a lower number of houses per capita will obviously mean a smaller pool of houses from which to draw available stock to buy and rent, but it is not a significant contributing factor.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    The housing crisis is a hydra of problems essentially built on the back of mass migration.

    To point out just two examples, consider these queues to buy homes. Buy, not rent.

    Meanwhile on the other end of the scale regarding social housing, consider some of these numbers.


    Squeezed from the top by wealthy migrants, squeezed from the bottom with social housing. A vice grips. A net negative for the majority of Ireland, no matter how you cut it.

    And that's just individuals. It doesn't include mass purchase of housing by foreign interests investing in the maintanence and prolonging of the crisis, it doesn't include refugee crises, and much more besides.


    Again, there is simply no way that the housing crisis can be solved without addressing the free for all that is mass migration. And addressing it means a severe and rapid reduction, not lip service.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,644 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    100% agree. And the last time I remember queues like that for people to buy housing was back in the celtic tiger days, and those days did not end too well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,741 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    That's a very myopic way of looking at the problem. The bottom line causing the whole issue is a lack of supply. Not migration. Migration is exacerbating an already existing problem. Most of Ireland is uninhabited, there's just a lack of supply of homes. The lack of supply has been caused by a lack of building of new homes since the collapse and we are now playing catch up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    It'd the opposite of myopic, it's eyes wide open.

    There has been an unprecedented increase in the population of Ireland from abroad. That's a fact.

    The housing crisis has moved in severity with that increase, year upon year. No coincidence.

    It has reached such zenith that the government are playing a Mr bean with tartare sauce across the country, playing hide the refugee. And that's just refugees.


    You don't invite 20 people to your house and then after the fact complain that you live in a 3 bedroom house. The fault was the invitation, the existential problem is the arrival of those extra people. It never had anything to do with the size of your home which was in the first place ordinarily adequate.


    The housing crisis is built on the back of mass migration and there isn't a single thing in the world that can fix the crisis without tackling that cause.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    Just to point out from that Mr bean clip, the gag is that he's hiding the meat in every nook and cranny instead of just saying no thanks.

    The icing on the analogy is that after all his extreme efforts, he's presented with yet another plate of tartare.

    Sisyphean.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,441 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    If there is a recruitment crisis in the HSE, how come the headcount of nurses has risen sharply?

    The HSE had added 8,000 nurses in four years.


    image.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,107 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The issue, if there is one, is the cap on nursing education places, because the HSE has been reluctant to increase the number of placements they offer, while the regulatory body has continued to insist on training taking place in hospitals, when the vast majority of new nurses are being recruited to community positions.



  • Posts: 12,694 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Have new services been rolled out by the HSE? Has the birth rate increased? all those pesky new babies need midwives and nurses in the hospital and and community and public health nurses in the community.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    Totally unsuspicious rise in hospital trolley situation at the exact same time as unprecedented population increase from abroad.


    Luckily, having established a dependency on migrant labour, passionately pursued over many years, we can now say that years later the healthcare system is better than ever!

    All new records, it's great.

    Just so, capacity crises built on mass migration will never be solved without stopping mass migration, including housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    Even scooby and the gang knows what's up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,441 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    The number of births has fallen.

    From the CSO:

    • The number of births registered continues to fall, down over a fifth in the ten years since 2012.

    Commenting on the Yearly Summary report, Seán O’Connor, Statistician in the Vital Statistics Division, said: “There were 57,540 births registered in 2022, some 903 (or 1.5%) less than 2021 and a fall of 20% since 2012. This represented an annual birth rate of 11.3 per 1,000 of population compared to 15.7 per 1,000 population in 2012. 


    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vsys/vitalstatisticsyearlysummary2022/



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz



    Bullshite: "we need to prevent demographic collapse by using mass migration!"

    Realshite: the capacity crises caused by mass migration like housing, healthcare and childcare, are causing demographic collapse.



  • Posts: 12,694 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It's not the thread maybe, but health care is not a zero-sum game, there are new screening and monitoring or new evidence-based ways of doing things rolled out all the time they need to be staffed our population is aging, nurses or health care staff are not the enemy, we are a well of European welfare state and that costs money to run.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2



    "The majority of new recruits coming from non-EU countries, particularly India and the Philippines.

    Some 1,584 new registrants qualified in Ireland, and 4,542 qualified outside the EU – a rise of 50pc."

    We're importing very large numbers of foreign nurses to try and fill in the gaps, but at the same time losing more experienced/senior Irish nurses. 75% of the new nurses we hire each year are now non-EU nationals. Thats the definition of a recruitment crisis, if you're having to import thousands of people a year to fill jobs you can't fill from your own population.

    And even with this massive importation we're still far below the capacity increase required to actually staff our hospitals to the levels required to function - as seen above, and in plenty more examples if you care to look.

    Our staffing numbers are required to increase significantly each year just to stand still due to 1) our massive population increases 2) our aging population and 3) understaffing hangovers from the 2010s austerity years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2


    If we had a functional, reasonably priced housing market we might get away with some of the bad working conditions, but at current housing market prices you can't blame them.

    Starting salary for a young nurse in Dublin is €34k as of right now, and €35k for a garda. Theres absolutely no way to live in Dublin on that and have any quality of life in 2024 if you're paying market rent. Especially not when you're college educated, and willing to work a difficult, stressful job - there are much better options available.

    Its stuff like that that really shows the problem with our current government. We're putting billions of euros into a national savings fund. We're spending €2bn a year housing new immigrants to the country. It would cost comparatively very little to add €5k a year to the starting salary of every junior nurse and garda in the country - €400mn was one figure I saw quoted - but would help recruitment, retention, and morale hugely in all of those areas.

    Which would obviously have fantastic effects for the country in general, with better staffed and functioning health and police services. And would also be a morally good choice you'd think - I can't imagine many voters would have a problem with it. But our government very deliberately chooses not to.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,441 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    AFAIK, the trade unions are against a Dublin allowance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2


    There should be a Dublin allowance as well, ideally, but that wasn't what I was talking about.

    A €5k bump to the starting wage for nurses/gardai everywhere in the country wouldn't be remotely excessive. The unions are very much not against that, they're crying out for it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,473 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Don't those "outside" forces become "inside" forces once they emigrate to Ireland?

    Or do you only count the pale ones?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    If 100 million people arrived into ireland tomorrow, no, they don't become "inside forces". The ability to physically move is no basis for merit.

    As to your insinuation of racism to obfuscate reality, it's weak and meaningless.

    Mass migration was a terrible idea from inception, and as the rotten fruits of it bloom, each day it will become ever more undeniable.

    Unprecedented population arrives from abroad, unprecedented capacity crises ensue. To fix the housing crisis, first and foremost, means ending mass migration, at a minimum. There are no two ways about it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,644 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    The housing market is not bad for everyone in the country. Yes, Dublin is expensive, but the same problem is for young people in London, Paris, New York, Sydney , Melbourne, L.A. or other big cities. Dublin is a capital city: there were plans for government decentralisation a few decades ago but the public servants in Dublin would not move out. Down the country property is affordable for many people. You mention starting wage for a Garda: well, average wage for a Garda is , according to the C.S.O., over €82,000 per year, which is enough to get a very decent house in most counties in Ireland.

    I agree. The huge immigration we have seen in recent years has only added to the crisis.



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