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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Difficult and dangerous considering how far they would have to travel through serious busy shipping Lanes one mistake could have unintended consequences, actually be interesting too see what the operating range would be outside of a being dropped from a mothership



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,473 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Avdiivka all but lost to the Russians.


    Grim times ahead for Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 117 ✭✭Danny Drier


    What happened to the Ukrainian panzer fist forces?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,473 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69




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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,566 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton




  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,566 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Source? There are some pro Russian claims that they have taken a defended position south of the city, but even if thats true its hard to see how that means Avdiivka is lost.

    Given that Russia claimed that the town of Pisky was taken about a dozen times and Bakhmut I dont know hoe many times, it isnt surprising that they might be overclaiming this one too!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling



    Probably another few months before they decide to withdraw to safer defensive lines



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,473 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    In the end Bakhmut was taken though, true?


    In my opinion its not looking good for Ukraine, Russia push forward at a huge cost yes, but that doesn’t matter Putin or the general Russian population.

    The West has failed here miserably.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,566 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Yes Bakhmut was taken. Three points though:

    1. The fall of one does not imply the inevitable fall of the other;

    2. Wagner were pivotal in bakmut; and

    3. The Russians have been trying to take Avdiivka for longer than they were in Bakhmut and avdivvka is more fortified.

    They might lose Avdiivka, but they might not. I dont think anyone can tell from this vantage point, but obviously its easy to predict that Russia will or will not take Avdiivka at some stage and youve a 50:50 chance of being right.

    But right now, it is not correct to say that its all but lost. Plenty fighting still to do.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    True, but if there's one thing you can say about the Russians, in one sense, they're very reliable. If you are unsure about anything that has happened, wait until Lavrov (or other mouthpiece) denies it, that's all the confirmation you need. It happened, and they are responsible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    You are focusing on what's happening on the battlefield, and ignoring the bull in the China shop, what's actually happening in Russia itself. Drone attacks are causing massive damage to Russian infrastructure, long range heavily armed drones are active on a daily basis, just to add to the mayhem and misery Putin's lack of investment in basic systems like water, electricity and heating breaking down, in the middle of the Russian Winter with temps of -30 recorded. Scarcity of basic food stuffs, cost of living going through the roof. Major clashes between protesters and police in Bashkortostan, which hasn't or will not go away. Russia cannot win the war in Ukraine, but defeat for Russia will come from within. Putin is too busy now plugging the leaks in his dam of oppression at home in Russia itself. Last year, he had to beef up his security services which while ostensibly are for internal security, are de facto his own personal bodyguard. Long term outlook for Putin and Riuuia is not looking good at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,703 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    Even if Avdiivka will fall in the end. I suspect it will eventually but who knows.

    It is not "about to fall". If it falls you can be sure Ukraine will make the Russians pay thousands of corpses for every 100 metres they take just like Bakhmut.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 463 ✭✭dockysher


    I do not post often, and do not support russia. But Ukraine is far more damaged than russia will ever be, barring a world war.

    Russia is massive, people forget ukraine will take decades to recover form this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 463 ✭✭dockysher




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,223 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    It's funny that so far this winter Russian infrastructure is hurting more then Ukraine. I hope the West don't get complacent and keep sending more AA.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    As was said at the start of the war "Ukrainians trade territory for time. Russians trade lives for territory."

    There are thousands of towns and villages in Ukrainian, and most are not strategically important. This has descended into a war of attrition, and the attaching side almost never wins a war of attrition.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,692 ✭✭✭swiwi_


    Don’t believe everything you read. If you believe that theory, you’re gullible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,184 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    That's true, it will take Ukraine decades to recover, but can you imagine Ukraine in 20/30 years?

    Cities will be rebuilt but so will their military, they won't let this happen again so you can guarantee they will build their army up, they will buy the best aircraft they can get from the west, they will be members of NATO and there's probably a good chance they will rearm with nukes because any treaty they had with Russia is now dead in the water.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 939 ✭✭✭wildefalcon


    I think that Ukrainian nuclear rearming has to be point 2 in the peace talks.


    Point 1, of course, is the DMZ along the 2014 border, and how far into Russia that extends from the line.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    i often wonder about towns and cities in Ukraine and in the wider Eastern European area with all the wars of the last 100 years some cities have been destroyed 3 or 4 times at this stage. Surely it must be a factor when building over there that the chances of it surviving 50 years are quite low. Building elaborate fancy public buildings must be rare in that zone of war??

    when you look at old photographs of Irish towns from 100 years ago you can always recognise a handful of buildings that are still the very same in shape and outline. Must be very different in Eastern Europe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Nobody is going to be giving them nuclear weapons certainly not as part of any peace plans



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The cities rebuilt were often restored to pre war beauty, even across most of occupied Eastern Europe.


    In the soviet Union where the nihilism of soviet socialism was well embedded post war construction was mostly mass concrete and grey paint, some city centres were rebuilt for show



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    To the eternal shame of the west. The severe ammunition shortage for Ukraine continues to get worse.


    The modern Western belief that things like domestic energy security, food security,domestic security, political stability in neighbouring regions etc are all unimportant and long term boring topics, it's not going to have a good outcome.


    Ukraine has held Russia with limited resources and lots of tough sacrifice for their home, kept them at a a fifth of the country taken, without massive advantage in firepower they will not take it back, and the pressure this year from much of Europe and Biden for a ceasefire is going to mount.


    The in thing for imperialists today is to call a ceasefire and talk of humanitarian pauses, and that is the way it will be presented.


    The West should have taken this serious from the start, it didn't and the consequences will play out for years.

    Ukraine got lucky that Russia and it's army are such fuk ups, Putin got lucky with the West lacking the bottle or motivation to beat him out if what he took.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 901 ✭✭✭ColemanY2K


    Communist countries hadn't as much as a washer after the war. Cheap ugly blocks of flats were built out of necessity in order to house the millions of refugees. However some city centres were rebuilt brick by brick using old photographs, the old towns of Warsaw and Gdansk immediately come to mind but outside these old towns the budget didn't exist to continue with the rebuilding of the beautiful boulevards.

    🌞 7.79kWp PV System. Comprised of 4.92kWp Tilting Ground Mount + 2.87kWp @ 27°, azimuth 180°, West Waterford 🌞



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    A couple of weeks ago some units ran out of mortars rounds and 40 mm grenades which they are reliant on for close quarters engagements,the issue there is they then become solely reliant on artillery, what happens when the Artillery slows or god forbids stops,and this is a side effect of being solely reliant on the US to defend Europe



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Russia was suffering from an extremely lopsided economy & dangerous demographics crisis before the war: since its start, that demographic problem has got N times worse through the war dead, wounded & those who emigrated; the economy is in the shítter because of both the sanctions and the massive drain caused by the first point; and by all accounts the Klepocratic nature of Russias has been highlighted with Putin's dogged insistence to keep prosecuting this war. Worth reminding, so far approx. 350,000 Russians have died trying to hold on to 20% of Ukraine. That's dead - there will be countless more injured both physically and mentally. The country is utterly moribund, and I feel sorry for the ordinary Russians who'll have to endure yet another coup when Putin croaks.

    There's a solid argument Russia has never recovered from the collapse of the USSR and has simply handed control from one authoritarian regime to another; it just so happened that for the longest time Russia had gas and resources that Europe needed, alongside a bit of a black market of investment which helped keep our tech sectors and suchlike stable. The world held its nose as Russia pretended it was a normal Democracy; stuff like the football World Cup an obvious moral lapse to anyone looking closely (though expecting morality from FIFA is probably a stretch). Instead, the war has forced Europe to rethink its dependency on Russian gas - which IMO was the big gamble Putin took when he invaded; that Europe would be too afraid of losing access to resources to intervene or help in any way. For a moment, it worked, then it all unravelled when Ukraine told Russia to GTFO.

    Now, compare that with Ukraine: assuming there's no total breakdown of diplomatic relations when the war is over Ukraine is probably gonna continue its "love bomb" global tour and ensure that EU/US companies come in, rebuild and invest in Ukraine. Remember Ukraine is now a EU Candidate and that process is probably only gonna accelerate when Kyiv can focus on restoration of its economy. The country has its own resources of value (which I'm sure had nothing to do with Putin's intent), and while places like Bakhmut might not be worth rebuilding from scratch I'd be shocked if we didn't see a massive investment in infrastructure and construction from outside companies. While external help will be needed just trying to remove the tens of thousands of mines now littering Ukrainian fields.

    Ukraine might take decades, sure; but they'll have a plan and a goal, both of which "easily" obtainable. In that time Putin will die, Russia will collapse and the next great flashpoint will occur as yet again Moscow eats itself.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The problem now though that Ukraine is now going to be the attacking side again soon.

    It looks like Ukraine is settling in for a sustained period of defensive operations , Building up supplies and also dealing with the shortage of soldiers, this is a country that has about 10% of the population under Russian occupation and another 25% in western Europe, that's an incredible problem for them.



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