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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Anything to back this up or you guessing? Because again the numbers provided are people are buying houses


    also a quick google says over 18k houses in the first 7 months of 2023



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,473 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    So the people at the bottom of the ladder, with the least amount of money are discerning enough to "prefer" a new build?

    Well isn't that just lovely for them.


    How much is this PHD of yours earning? If they did a PHD and built up debt but picked an industry that they cant make enough money in....is that everyone elses fault?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Again, you're saying they had uncollected rent. So if they had collected the rent, then what? What exact policy tools were available to them to build thousands of houses?

    The reality, which you seem unaware of, is that DCC don't have the power to engage in a large scale social housing programme like that. That decision making is at national level. Its the equivalent accusing DCC of not spending uncollected rent on buying fighter jets, if that makes things any clearer for you.

    My initial post literally had [2014] on the first link. Thats the year I referred to. Its quite clear.

    And, again, trying to argue the semantics of 2013 vs 2014 doesn't change the post I was replying to - which claimed the housing crisis only began in 2020, and nobody was aware of it or proposing solutions to it before then. Are you trying to agree with that post?

    You didn't answer. You have yet to list a single policy tool DCC should have used.

    You're posting 400+ times a month on this forum, repeatedly ignoring questions. Approaching 15 posts a day, every day of the week, for months on end. Thats hours a day of your life. Are you ok?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2


    "no Government, or indeed change of Government, was going to see the crisis in advance,"

    You claimed no government could have foreseen the crisis in advance, and only listed events since 2020 as being the causes of the crisis.

    My point was not that SF were the only ones doing anything about the housing crisis in the 2010s, plenty of research bodies and academics were screaming about it at the time. My point is that our governments were the only ones not doing anything about the housing crisis.

    Social housing isn't the be all and end all of the crisis. We should be building far more private sector housing units too. But the 60,000 households currently on HAP, costing the state over €1bn a year, have no place in the private rental market. They should all be in social housing, and would be if social housing construction had happened over the last decade. But it didn't, so instead we have these 60k households in the private rental market - driving up prices for everyone else trying to rent, and wasting billions of tax payer euros while we're at it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Ahh here would you get out of it. It's hilarious some of the stuff people imagine to make excuses

    In terms of posting I called you out on demanding people to keep responding to the same question you ask that was already answered. This is the reaction. 😂



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2


    No actual policies on offer again then, no?

    One more of the 15 a day into the void I guess.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    You keep count a chara.

    What policy do you want to see? come on explain what you want to see. Unless you have a policy to say that the government gaev DCC 292m and then blocked them.

    To me it looks like DCC are responsible for housing supply

    Maybe you can find that document to say they are not or the government blocked them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2



    Someone who posts on internet forums 15 times a day, spending hours a day doing so, every single day, for months on end, probably shouldn't be calling anything pathetic, I'd think. That doesn't exactly suggest much quality of life.

    That aside, you've been asked multiple times. Since you're claiming this is what they should and can do, what exact, specific, policy tools can DCC use to build thousands of houses?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Swing and a miss, as expected. DCC can't turn around and decide to build 10,000 homes this year under their Rapid Build, or Regeneration, schemes, even if they wanted to.

    The funding required for large scale building, to your exact claim of "thousands of homes", under each of those schemes requires national level policy tool support and approval.

    I eagerly await the next no doubt rapid reply trying to muddy the waters and walk back that claim, though.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    This is what I posted:

    Sinn fein took control of DCC in 2014 promising to build social housing, when they left in 2019 they had less units than they started with.

    During the time building up 40m in debt in rent arrears and only removing one tenant.

    That's a view of what is coming with the opposition .

    Fact is population grew in Dublin by 75k over the period from 2014-2019 based on a google and during this period the Sinn Fein led DCC ended up with less unit in 2019 than they started with in 2014. An excellent example of Sinn Fein and housing.

    This while the government provided close to 300m to DCC for housing, plus all of the money DCC should have received from rent of their current units.

    As you have provided nothing to counter this but nonsense I will bow out. It's got as bad now as the LL don't pay tax, only 75% of them nonsense you started before.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    If the population in Dublin grew by 75k between 2014 and 2019, do you know by how much the total housing stock in Dublin grew by during the same period?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2


    You claimed, and I quote directly, DCC could/should have built "thousands of houses".

    Lets put some hard numbers on this since I know you're allergic to them.

    The average cost for delivering a social housing unit in Dublin is in excess of €400k in 2023, but we'll round it down to €400k per unit for the same of simplicity.

    To build 5,000 of these units per year, a number in the middle of your "thousands" range, would cost €2bn per year.

    DCC's *total* revenue in 2023 was €1.24bn. And €700mn of that was spent on neccessary things unrelated to housing, only €550mn went to housing.

    So to build 5000 units a year DCC would need an extra €1.5bn of funding per year. Do you think they can magically make this appear somehow through raising parking rates?

    Or, to go back to my point from the very start, can you possibly realise that this level of funding is a policy tool only the national government can release?

    I can see why you're bowing out.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Surely that average cost is so high because they're buying them in Part V of off developers?

    It seems insane to think the average cost of building a social housing unit is 400k



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,473 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    How many houses could they have built without the rent arrears?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,344 ✭✭✭Blut2


    €40mn of rent arrears, at €400k a housing unit? The maths on that aren't particularly hard surely, a grand total of 100 housing units.

    No, even council built prices are through the roof:

    The review found one-bedroom apartments provided directly by the council cost €335,000, 11 per cent above the equivalent figure for AHBs (€303,000) and 34 per cent above the figure for “Part Vs “(€250,000).

    For two-bedroom homes, the council construction costs of €514,000 were 23 per cent above the AHB average of €418,000 and 44 per cent above the Part V average €358,000.

    The council paid an average of €600,000 for the construction of three-bedroom apartments during this period"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/dublin/2023/02/15/dublin-city-council-pays-40-over-the-odds-for-social-housing-audit-finds/

    DCC realistically would need a huge injection of funding from the national government, as well as longer term policies like training apprentices, guaranteed decade long contracts for builders etc, to be building the thousands of social housing units per year that are required. The tools aren't there at present to come anywhere near meeting the demand.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Those are staggering figures.

    For two-bedroom homes, the council construction costs of €514,000 were 23 per cent above the AHB average of €418,000 and 44 per cent above the Part V average €358,000.

    Presumably the Part V price of 358k includes something of a margin for the developer.

    So the council cost to build could be more like 60% higher than the developer. Astonishing.

    I would be in the "government needs to build social housing direct" school of thought, but those figures would certainly give you doubts about the merits. Criminal stuff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    In the late 2010s a Co Op seeking only a 5% profit built 3 bed terraces on DDC owned land in Ballymun for 165k.


    It shows what absolute robbery is being committed when e DCC claims it costs them 400k a go.


    Costs have risen since 2018/19 but not by 2.5 times.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Even if it was 50 units it would be better than none

    This was also from 2014 to 2019 when the cost for a house build was not close to the cost it is today. Due to the reduction in social units from 2014 to 2019 we ended up with more pressure on the system.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,473 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Its just not just the costs that have risen, the regulations and thus the quality have also risen.

    You might as well compare a Nokia 3310 to an iPhone and say its criminal the price difference.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    Since 2019? Is this more Eamon Ryan nonsense so?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    As long as the elephant remains in the room of mass migration and its direct effect on housing, we are guaranteeing a deepening housing crisis forever. That isn't hyperbole, it is forever.

    That the constant arrival of extra people into the country just so happens to coincide with housing shortfall, year after year, is asking yourself to discard your brain. Coincidence, it is not.

    Arguing over the cost of bricks against such a reality is practical insanity.

    There are many crooked schemes afoot in all shapes and sizes, from international vulture funds to shady hotel deals, but the one thing they are all predicated upon is the bed rock of misaligned demand.

    Take that demand away and all of it collapses. No need to talk about the impact on the neoliberalism fantasy of the Irish economy, because that economy is doing sweet eff all to improve the infrastructural shortfall. The mindless pursuit of that magic economy is, in actual fact, the driving force of infrastructural collapse.

    If you want to solve the housing crisis and reduce overall cost, tackle the artificial demand. Anything and everything else is worthless without it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,745 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    There was a housing crisis here long before the recent migration crisis.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    There was a separate housing crisis created on ridiculous credit lending.

    There is a very distinct timeline of events that separate that housing crisis versus this one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,347 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The ecomony has to continue to grow, otherwise we enter recession and our living standards go backwards.

    We need to build more homes and better manage the inflow of people into the state, but we also need the economy to grow and we need a flow of migrants to make it happen/fill skilled labour jobs etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    It's a fools errand to pursue an economy that cures none of the increasing infrastructural deficit, yet relies on migration that increases infrastructural deficit.

    Or if you rather, our living standards are going down the drain in many important and impactful ways as the system works, so warning that not pursuing that system will decrease those standards is moot.

    As I said, a neoliberalism fantasy.

    For proof, all one needs to do is observe as a matter of fact.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    No it doesn't, housing issues started long before the arrival of "extra people"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,347 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Without a growing economy, there are no funds to improve infrastructure.

    There is a balance to be struck.

    We do need immigration to fill jobs, but the level of immigration is a different question.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    As I stated above, there is a very, very distinct timeline of events between both housing crises.

    The previous one was built on ridiculous credit lending, this one is built on artificial demand.

    Nobody who cares to spend 10 seconds thinking upon it could be confused.



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