Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I'm sure that since Trump is such a great deal-maker, he can make a deal in a day with Russia, as he's claimed. Just tell Putin he'll turn Moscow into a sheet of radioactive glass if Russia doesn't withdraw its forces immediately.

Actually, if he could do that and get away with it, I'd say he did a great job. But I suspect any deal he'd try to do would involve allowing Russia to have what they hold, and some pretty flimsy security guarantee to Ukraine in exchange for accepting this. Because Trump has banged the drum on NATO contributions by ally nations, he might use coming good on that guarantee as a bargaining chip to get those allies to pay up. Not that if any nations aren't paying their fair share, they shouldn't be, but using it as a bargaining chip for helping defend Ukraine in a time of need wouldn't be too classy. But that's only a supposition. If he were to bring the issue up at the time of negotiating a security guarantee for Ukraine and let it be known then, I'd say fair enough.

Here's the thing about security guarantees, NATOs mutual defence is pretty based on hold off an attack for a few days until the Americans come to the rescue,we know two years later into the invasion of Ukraine the majority of Nato countries aren't meeting the 2% of gpd spending on defence, now we have the likes of Germany and France playing off against each other, elsewhere countries are complaining about Germany announcing different funds for Ukraine despite agreements in place for it all to be done jointly, France decided to announce today that they were producing 72 Ceasar artillery systems for Ukraine but NATO /EU countries have to pay for them but nobody actually ordered 72 of them. It's a very fractured approach to helping Ukraine

NATO and Russia are never going to enter direct full conflict, that's because Russian forces would be vaporised in a short period and they'd have to resort to the nuclear option. Russia has almost zero domestic defence because no one actually wants to invade the country (it's a myth created by Putin to validate his expansionist moves). Only have to see how far Prigozhin made it in 24 hours to know any outcome in that regard.

Yes, there is footage of him with them all sat round the table with him, signing to forms

Oil on fire

If Biden can bypass Congress, why does he?

Letting the lend lease expire without a single piece of equipment send under it was a bad choice. They knew funding was running out and they would be locked into negotiations with the GOP. Likewise, why doesn't NATO countries allow Ukraine buy what equipment it needs? I know some self propelled artillery Ukraine has actually bought from France etc... but why not allow Ukraine to just order a dozen stormshadow missiles when it needs to, add on a few dozen long range missiles for the HIMARS etc..

Even through their own United 24 fundraising, Ukraine has raised close to $600 million. Money doesn't seem to be the issue.

By the book.... Apart from bypassing Congress for sales of bombs for Israel.

I'd say the GOP have no problem with just delaying and delaying hoping Trump gets back in.

Another strange one is, I believe the majority in the GOP actually support funding Ukraine, how or why did they elect a speaker without some guarantee he would not delay Ukrainian funding bills?

Oh, in Russia "artisanal" literally means taking a hammer to a sealed part with " do not open, factory disassembly only" clearly displayed on it." and hammering off the seal, and then opening the part. I kid you not. I personally held the ladder for one aircraft engineer, while he did precisely that on the engine of an IL76 cargo plane.

the money will get from the US to Ukraine, it's just a matter of how and when.

It's election year, so Biden will be careful of all the optics... I still reckon though, even with a republican vote of approval, there'll be republican ads of "Jo Biden sends your money to corrupt Ukrainians without asking... vote republican" during the campaign later in the year.

Bound for stalemate, with a negotiated settlement.