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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Comments

  • #1292
    InAtFullBack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    image.png

    Monday night into Tuesday on the ICON



  • #1293
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Pub run is in fact not sober tonight



  • #1294
    Ros4Sam24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 253 ✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Pub run dumps White stuff. Pity it's still at day 7, but getting somewhere..



  • #1295
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Wolfeire must be sweating to update. Cant imagine the servers going down helped :)



  • #1296
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,606 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Untitled Image

    Bank! Sorry for our South Eastern friends though. Anyway as we all know these charts are not to be relied on, they are just for fun



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  • #1297
    Reversal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 412 ✭✭Reversal


    Yeah 18z GFS is totally different to the last few days of GFS runs. Lower heights over Iberia this weekend allows cold air to advance further south through Sunday and Monday. Less energy going from the Scandi PV lobe to Canadian side, so the shortwave on Tuesday is less pronounced and the 500mb flow always stays north of west, keeping the cold air over us.

    Then a weak Atlantic ridge drives the Jetstream south into France and holds the Atlantic at bay until Saturday week. Hopefully the start of a trend!

    Post edited by Reversal on


  • #1298
    InAtFullBack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    Not a bad GFS 18z. The Atlantic roars back in on Saturday week though.

    Next week looks better with shallow lows meandering around a null-pressure expanse (not high, not low and isobars of 4hPa difference anything up to 500 miles apart!) I think the warm SSTs will create lots of shallow lows that will dump heavy slow-moving shower bands across us!

    image.png


    image.png




  • #1299
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,666 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604069#Comment_121604069

    Promising chart for wintry precipitation with snow showers a possibility moving down from the North.

    Just to note that this chart is better suited for the Up to T120 thread.

    Getting closer now!



  • #1300
    Robwindstorm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 647 ✭✭✭Robwindstorm


    Somebody wake up Gonzo and tell him it's no longer a dream. Over to you Wolf for the details



  • #1301
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,606 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604413#Comment_121604413

    Good analysis of the run and why it evolves as it does. Lets just hope it comes off and the milder air can be delayed further!



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  • #1302
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604439#Comment_121604439

    Gonzo is only interested in easterlies



  • #1303
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,552 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604439#Comment_121604439

    Coldest gfs operational run to date. And......it appears that it was not an outlier and it has significant support on the ensembles. It looks like it is even milder than the ensembles mean so it's quite the upgrade overall. I'll do a more detailed post in next hour.

    www.weatheire.com



  • #1304
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,940 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I have to admit, I can't hide in the shadows. The 18z is much better from both the operational and the ensembles. The operational has that low all the way down to France and precipitation is not even getting into the English Channel. That's one hell of a southerly correction and as WolfeEire says is well supported by its ensembles.

    The ensemble mean is down as low as -8C for early next week and even -10C for some England locations. Clearly a more clean northerly feed.

    Can't believe corrections like this still happening at day 4. Ridiculous but not the first time we've witnessed changes this close. Will it last to other runs or has the 18z overdosed too much tonight?

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • #1305
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,117 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Untitled Image


    ..



  • #1306
    InAtFullBack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    image.png


    Scotland, Ireland, and northern England get decent snow, most of Wales and England don't. Probably a bit of disappointment with this run over on NetWeather.



  • #1307
    Eibhir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    As the pub run would say the friend is your trend. (because it's had a few jars 😉)



  • #1308
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,074 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    Some really good gfs members in the pack tonight. Lots are snowy and some very cold ones. Mean should be interesting for this time next week.



  • #1309
    squarecircles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,243 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    night time temperatures over the snowfields


    Untitled Image


    Untitled Image




  • #1310
    Cluedo Monopoly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,388 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    The Wolf and the Frog will find us the white gold!

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • #1311
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,074 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    Cold for a fair few days.

    chart.png




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  • #1312
    InAtFullBack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    Some of the GFS 18Z permutations are unbelievable!

    Take this one: -15c 850hPa on the Mayo/Donegal coastline! Ireland completely under -10s!

    image.png




  • #1313
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,552 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    As cold a GEFS ensembles set we have seen so far this winter which is all the more remarkable due to the GFS being the laggard for so long regarding this cold spell.

    The Azores low sinks south due to the regression of the heights extending over Iberia allowing a more easterly track of the low i.e. not ENE toward southern Ireland and southern Britain before pulling away. That low may have brought frontal snow for some but its new trajectory has allowed for deeper cold to develop over Ireland. This is coupled with a resilient Greenland High pressure system keeping the Atlantic at bay a little longer.

    Were this output to verify there would be some rare ice days in Ireland away from exposed coastal spots. The airflow by midweek is relatively unstable and slow moving which would produce snowfall. I firmly believe it will be a nowcast scenario regarding snowfall.

    It turns less cold during Saturday into Sunday but it will feel raw in moderate Westerly winds with continued snowfall possible on high ground well inland. The latter is a long long way off however, so further changes will occur. All eyes on the overnight runs.

    chart (4).jpeg


    www.weatheire.com



  • #1314
    InAtFullBack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604556#Comment_121604556

    Excellent summary of tonight's 18Z GFS.

    The 00Z ECM and GFS will be very interesting at 4am for those up early!



  • #1315
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,411 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I think I just woke up. Where the hell did that pub run come from and it's really well supported. I wonder what will the 00z and 06z be like when we wake up in the morning. Those and the 12z tomorrow have to keep it up.

    True I normally only get excited about easterlies but if snow was to come from any direction I wouldn't care what direction the wind takes.

    Untitled Image

    The outliers are unlikely to verify but some of them are close to -15C and the main bunch packed between -6 and -12C. That's some change on the past few days where most were around -3 to -7C.



  • #1316
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,606 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The only negative I can see is the ensembles have been consistent about milder weather after the 20th, but I suppose this is silly to worry about given what's potentially on offer this week. Also cold spells rarely last beyond 4 or 5 days anyway.



  • #1317
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,411 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604625#Comment_121604625

    4 to 5 days is all that is needed for the winter fix. February 2009 was only about 3 or 4 days from what I can remember.



  • #1318
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,606 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604629#Comment_121604629

    Yes that's true. 2010 was about 9 days and that was pushing it. Even years that went down in snowlore had milder periods. Let's just hope this isn't the usual GFS pub run leading us up the garden path.



  • #1319
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,411 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604639#Comment_121604639

    GFS can be great at sniffing things out and other models follow, let's hope that is the case tomorrow and we see the ECM and GEM follow this pub run ensemble.



  • #1320
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 518 ✭✭✭Donegal Ken


    When this cold arrives I think models will extend the length of the cold out past next weekend.



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  • #1321
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Surely tomorrow and Saturday we should know how cold it will likely be up to Wednesday/ Thursday. As regards snow that will always be much closer to the time. Regarding longativity of the cold probably won't know that until around next Tuesday imo.



This discussion has been closed.
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