FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Eibhir

Sorry a wee bit off topic, but on the subject of models. My first day in the Central Bank in 1999 I was asked by an economist would I give him a hand with 'The Country Model' in the afternoon. Ah great I thought, this sounds like fun, she must be feisty. I was wondering to myself where she was from Tipperary, Laois, surely not Offaly.. It was a model for predicting inflation in differing EU countries😐️

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121602849#Comment_121602849

That really would be the ideal. I mean the bulk of the country would get snow at some stage. I would love a polar low to form too , so we could possibly have a near nationwide heavy snow event. Am I asking for too much?

Eibhir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121602918#Comment_121602918

The next 10 runs are crucial!

InAtFullBack

UK Met Office just done a 'deep dive' broadcast a half hour ago, they remain relatively optimistic using words like 'dumping' and 'disruptive' and 'significant snowfall'. They are wavering on the location of it though, which is to be expected. They alluded to a reload from the north also.

The most significant statement though was that he felt the models are 'too quick' to break down the high, which he thinks will take longer 'in reality'.

Rather bullish I think, hope it's not bullshi... though!

Also, he showed a system giving snow to the northern areas of Ireland into Tuesday morning.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121602952#Comment_121602952

I have not seen them this bullish since 2010. I am not suggesting we are getting a repeat of that, we are not. What I mean is they must have a fairly strong signal to be like this .

Eibhir

I was wondering to myself, and now sharing my thoughts, whether UK forecasting is showing signs of the 'Brexit' effect. In that it's proud, defiant, bullish. We can forecast alone, especially without giving a look at the ECM?!

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121602918#Comment_121602918

I think the next 2 days are crucial.

WolfeEire

Our weather is going to be very cold for much of next week (up to Saturday or so unless there is dramatic change). There will be snow for some and disappointment for others.

In the updated words of Met Eireann, "Further outlook: Staying very cold with mixed weather."

Mixed weather! That should cover it (they are right by the way).

Gonzo

The past few GFS runs in regards to the stratosphere have been most interesting. It appears that the PV is going to be almost eliminated within the next 2 weeks with the past 2 runs at least suggesting what appears to be some sort of a split. This split is not caused by an SSW but the constant pressure it's been on for the past month.

Gavsweather has called this 'Death by 1000 cuts'. February and March are going to be interesting.

Eibhir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603023#Comment_121603023

That's a real 'it'll be dry between the showers statement'!

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603023#Comment_121603023

How cold is very cold?

-5 isn't unusually cold so below that I presume?

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603050#Comment_121603050

It's a bit like trying to answer how long is a piece of string this far out @waterwelly. Most people are calling this week 'cold'. Next week will be 'very cold'. Very low single figures by day and subzero every night. Wouldn't go predicting potential lowest figures yet. Anywhere with lying snow would be much lower than if they didn't have snow. The finer details will be ironed out over the weekend. They call it winter in other countries I gather.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603092#Comment_121603092

Actually if Met Eireann are saying "staying very cold" they must think it's very cold already 😁

Proper cold for me would be sub zero by day and -6 or lower by night.

Expensive to keep the heat going though. 🥶

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603115#Comment_121603115

That would be 'extremely cold' or 'fierce cold' or even 'baltic'.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603040#Comment_121603040

According to Amy Butler it's a bottom up split- it's primarily driven by what's happening in the troposphere vortex. I think she metioned that a major ssw could actually happen, but it wouldn't be the normal way. Sryan will know more.

Billcarson

I like the ukmo for Monday from a cold perspective. Decent enough cold . I think anything past Monday is FI atm. Getting cold is a bonus these days. Getting snow an extra bonus.

WolfeEire

The KMA Model keeps the cold going through to the end of the run on January 23rd before an Atlantic system finally pushes through milder air. This outcome currently has no support from other models that go out this far.

TheMilkyPirate

UKMO the only decent output today hopefully the ECM follows it.

As an aside is the UKMO a lower resolution than the other models? Its never as detailed past 120h

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603050#Comment_121603050

I've seen them describing max temperatures of 4-8 degrees and minimum temperatures of 0-2 degrees as 'bitterly cold', so it's impossible to tell what they mean really.

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121602974#Comment_121602974

In fairness to the UK Met Office, they often post ECM and the GFS on their 10-day trend and deep dive broadcasts, they even give the GEM an odd mention too. Also, wasn't the storm naming system shared between us, the Dutch and them post-brexit?

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603247#Comment_121603247

I could be wrong on this but GFS switches to a lower resolution post 120hrs.

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 12Z

It goes hour by hour up to 120 and then every three hours thereafter.

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603248#Comment_121603248

Probably a few factors lean into the language they use. A breezy 4c or 5c is bitterly cold when compared to a cold 2c on a calm day. Humidity, sunshine/lack of are other factors I'd imagine they consider.

Eibhir

ECM has the nice cold in on Monday too. I agree with Bill Carson. After Monday is unresolved.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603247#Comment_121603247

UKMO HD is hourly up to +54. 3 hr gaps after that. Lower res version is every 24 hrs up to +144.

Reckless Abandonment

Ecm really blows up a low coming off canada between say 5 and 6, GH highs gone, looking very gfs ish

snowfan50

Hi, you should watch Mark Vogan's video from yesterday where he covers the polar split.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603525#Comment_121603525

The Heights will amplify.

nacho libre

UKMO looks out on it's own somewhat for next week. ECM doesn't deliver a potent Arctic outbreak and bar maybe one frontal event, we seem to go back to a westerly influence due to a deep low. That text forecast update by Met Eireann might not be that wide of the mark:" very cold but mixed weather"

nacho libre

Well just to add some surprises(ninja snow)could still pop up between Monday and the possible milder turn.

Meteorite58

Some of the models giving snow for later next Weds or early Thursday, ECM leading the way as a small area of LP and its associated front or fronts transits the country from West to East. Interesting how the models respond showing a possible ice day for many . The models showing from widespread snow of 2 to 5cm to just snow in the West. Different timings and tracks but it is good to focus on it to see if the models align. ECM going on to show a very cold night getting down to -5 or -6C.

To add Northern counties look like seeing snow on and off from early in the week right out to Fri. Possibly lying most days if not all the week.

Models showing more unsettled weather into the weekend with possibly strong or very strong winds, still showing cold but not as cold as the days before it, frontal rains , possibly heavy, could have snow on leading edge. Current charts would give bitter feeling temperatures in the strong winds around the weekend, maybe less cold from around Saturday. GFS goes on to show very disturbed weather from the Atlantic after that.

ECM showing just getting up to afew degrees on Tuesday followed by widespread frost. Weds just getting up to 2 or 3C and widespread sharp/ severe frost. Thurs possibly struggling to get over 0c for a part of the country followed by very sharp frosts, Fri only getting up around a few degrees and frosts maybe more towards the NE as winds come in from the SW or W. For now ECM showing a milder weekend getting up around 8C or so with strong winds and frontal rains, possible storm perhaps.

The Jet Stream seems to come alive again from around next weekend.