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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Comments

  • #962
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭highdef


    UKMO "Deep Dive" forecast -

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toG_dTpPcJI




  • #963
    pureza
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,914 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591583#Comment_121591583

    Latest BBC news 24 forecast looked at next week and has a huge swathe of the southern half of Ireland including meath under snow as a battleground system comes in next week

    It shows rain only on the south coast and looked like it swept away SE leaving Ireland on its cold side,is that not interesting enough ?



  • #964
    Eibhir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591689#Comment_121591689

    Are you not entertained?!?

    😉



  • #965
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,412 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591694#Comment_121591694

    If that ends up happening that would be great but alot can change over the coming week. Currently the KMA is hinting towards this with air that just might be cold enough if we could upgrade the cold a little bit more.

    Untitled Image

    The above shows low pressure sliding southeastwards dragging in an easterly wind but there is some atlantic mixing going on so hard to tell if this would be a snow event or more of a wet wintry mix.

    Untitled Image

    -4 to -6 uppers above which suggests wintry precipitation but unlikely to be lying snow away from areas well inland and higher ground. After this we become colder again out to the end of the run and the heights over southern Europe get pushed down into Africa which is promising.

    Untitled Image Untitled Image




  • #966
    squarecircles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,243 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591694#Comment_121591694

    my god theyre a dose and a half.



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  • #967
    pureza
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,914 ✭✭✭pureza


    The takeaway statement on the deep dive video linked above is when they're talking about the battleground, all the suggestions are slider lows

    What they said was that next weeks battleground could be the start of many and that this could be the pattern to the end of January, meaning you might get swathes of GB under snowfalls with ever decreasing temps there feeding us with extremely cold surface air more or less guaranteeing that what falls here in showers or at the edge of fronts is snow,am I ramping enough now?



  • #968
    Cork2021
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,420 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591992#Comment_121591992

    Ah sure we love a good ramp but depends on how steep that ramp is!!



  • #969
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,552 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    It's wedges make sledges forecasting territory so.

    My feeling is that sliding lows will be initially forecast as much further north than their final position.

    www.weatheire.com



  • #970
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    I just hope we don't end up in some messy slushfest rubbish. I'd nearly prefer rain to that crap. Fingers crossed we don't.



  • #971
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,606 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121592052#Comment_121592052

    I am not sure, if they keep coming I think some will make it further north at times. Blackbriar mentioned ramping, so in that spirit I will say we could end up in a 1947 esque position- repeated frontal snow events for a while ,or one big slushfest. I fear the latter, we could be wet much of the time while the Midlands and northern England are white.

    Dublin live: weather experts( if only) say a winter to rival 1947 is on the way 😄

    Post edited by nacho libre on


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  • #972
    odyboody
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 193 ✭✭odyboody


    It's definitely on the way,

    question is will it arrive in our lifetime???



  • #973
    Thelonious Monk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,286 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    Enjoying the technical charts and nerdy weather stuff here, stuff I'm pretty clueless about. I don't like the cold that much so I feel for you all, your little hearts will be broken when all we get is a few zoomed in pictures from a phone camera of a hill in Donegal in the distance with some snow on it while England is neck deep in the stuff. It's always the same!



  • #974
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    iconnh-0-138.png

    Icon looking better.



  • #975
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,002 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121592495#Comment_121592495

    Yep ! Profile over Greenland much better and deep cold arriving Sunday night…



  • #976
    SpitfireIV
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,540 ✭✭✭SpitfireIV


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121592290#Comment_121592290

    I can imagine the headlines now when it arrives!


    'Record snowfall right across country as traffic chaos ensues!'


    'Worst snowfall in living memory as continuous disruptive snow turns country to winter wonderland!'


    And those are the UK headlines, meanwhile in Ireland it's raining 🤣



  • #977
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    iconnh-0-171.png iconnh-0-177.png

    Quite the difference on the icon 6z and 12z still looks dry away from North.



  • #978
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,552 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The ICON

    iconnh-0-171.png nodding-yes.gif

    Significant upgrade on the 00z primarily due to a flattened azores.low, improved.block.ans better angle on incoming cold

    animirv1.gif


    animujd2.gif


    www.weatheire.com



  • #979
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Icon unleashes a huge upgrade compared to its previous run ..not a bad start is it!😊

    IMG_9124.png




  • #980
    waterwelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    Met.ie showing -4 for Thursday 18th.



  • #981
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Icon and ukmo look great. Gfs not having any of it, it keeps killing off the GH



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  • #982
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    IMG_9126.gif IMG_9128.jpeg

    ..



  • #983
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,412 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121592544#Comment_121592544

    ok that could well be a game changer! That poor GFS tho! Serious game changing upgrades is what we seriously needed today! I just hope the GFS has gotten things very badly wrong with their current output.



  • #984
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,074 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121592741#Comment_121592741

    The UKMO has given serious upgrades, so has the ECM and ICON. Good day for coldies.



  • #985
    Eibhir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    The GFS is disappointing, but in the context of other model really good runs, not fiercely.

    That boundary line between snow and rain will be moving north and south 300 miles for a few days. And we may accept that. 50/50 battleground scenario. The sweet spot to be decided.

    Just to say 50/50 for a good snowfall in mid January is something most of us would have taken on 1st November, given El Nino and predictions of a mild winter, and given what mid January usually produces in Ireland!! Enjoy if it happens and don't lose the head if it doesn't. There'll be a good core of winter weather left from 18 January until 20 February or so, that can deliver.

    And enjoy this lovely dry week with seasonal frosts.



  • #986
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,606 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I feel tonight's ECM could be a crucial run- aren't they all. If we see the ECM move towards the GFS it will be disappointing. The UKMO run seems a slight move to the GFS to me, but it looks very good initially. If the ECM stays steadfast, then it's more likely the GFS will begin an incremental backtrack on the pub run or tomorrow morning.



  • #987
    Eibhir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121593004#Comment_121593004

    Very true.

    My gut feels it will be to our liking. It's been very steady for 4 runs or so now.

    It's still the model I trust the most, followed by the UKMO, the day 6 output limit on the UKMO hinders it's FI discusssion a bit.



  • #988
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,606 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121592928#Comment_121592928

    It's great to see the pink hue to the sky again. Fantastic walking weather altogether. If we can't get snow this is the second best thing.



  • #989
    Eibhir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121593048#Comment_121593048

    Exactly Nacho.

    How many times have we all been saying 'i'm bloody sick of this Atlantic muck' or words to that effect. This reminds me of winter as a child in the 80s. Where there's a discernible seasonal difference. This week couldn't be an October or April week, like many January weeks we have.



  • #990
    Eibhir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    A few days ago I was saying getting the pressure and cold right on models was akin to manipulating air bubbles on lino.

    Weather 850hpa Northern Hemisphere charts are also very like Lava Lamps😅🙈



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  • #991
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,666 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note: Need to stay on topic. Please follow instructions on opening post :


    Mod Note:

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Winter 2023/2024.


    If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved


    Thanks



This discussion has been closed.
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