FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

almostthere12 · 08-01-2024 04:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587289#Comment_121587289

ICON 12z is very similar to that:

WolfeEire · 08-01-2024 04:24PM

Icon 12z has a better angle on the approach of that colder airmass with minus 8 850s over us by Sunday evening. Could do with high being a tad further west mind you.

Gonzo · 08-01-2024 04:48PM

That Icon w ould leave us high and dry with a snowfest for usual places in the UK. This event could easily not produce a single flake for us so I wouldn't be talking this cold spell up yet to friends or family. In about 3 days time we should know if we're in for an actual event or just another lame duck like early December.

piplip87 · 08-01-2024 05:05PM

Cold and dry is plenty for me at this stage would love some sneachta but as long as it's not raining. The ice this morning was something else though.

Larbre34 · 08-01-2024 05:10PM

Indeed. Whatever dries the land out at this stage is the best weather for everyone.

White Clover · 08-01-2024 05:14PM

No need for snow, it just disrupts most people’s everyday lives. Cold and dry is all we need.

pureza · 08-01-2024 05:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587593#Comment_121587593

It's increasingly looking like a North and Northwest event which will make many members here happy

Sometimes those events can also impact the Midlands and Dublin

They don't excite me at all as we would be high and dry down here in the Southeast for sure

Villain · 08-01-2024 05:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587711#Comment_121587711

Or a Northeaster that has a nice long stretch ;)

nacho libre · 08-01-2024 05:19PM

It's looks a bit messy beforehand,could be snow from a frontal attack or just cold rain. Fine Margins.

nacho libre · 08-01-2024 05:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587711#Comment_121587711

Just out of curiousity, have you ever had snow from a polar low?

pureza · 08-01-2024 05:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587742#Comment_121587742

In the good old 1980's yes,once only that I can remember

But in 99% of cases,hard frosts and clear skies

Snow showers that come here rarely from the NW last about 5 or 10 mins here in between 4 to 5 hrs of sun

The only decent snow here has been frontal events and northeasterly's off the Irish sea

nacho libre · 08-01-2024 05:30PM

This GFS run is knife edge stuff, I don't like it overall because 9 times out of 10 it goes wrong for us. We could end up with the cold feed cut off , turn milder, and be watching on as parts of England are buried in snow

Kermit.de.frog · 08-01-2024 05:33PM

Everybody remain calm 😆

circadian · 08-01-2024 05:40PM

Here comes the Kermit hype train!

Gonzo · 08-01-2024 05:41PM

Not really liking todays modeling at all I have to say. The GFS 12z is a bit unusual and probably an outlier in it's own way. Models clearly struggling with the high pressure on one side and the potential return of the Atlantic on the other side.

Reckless Abandonment · 08-01-2024 05:50PM

image.png.109d3a0ff555da03d7dee5bea157e11d.png

That would turn alot of the country white. True Gonzo. But the models keep finding a way to cold and snowy (for some) . Normally they wobble and slowly go back to zonal, this time they keep defaulting cold. It probably shows they just can't fully handle the current setup.

torres9kop · 08-01-2024 06:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587857#Comment_121587857

I dont like ur negativity. But I enjoy reading ur posts :)

Cluedo Monopoly · 08-01-2024 06:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587821#Comment_121587821

Kermit, Do you believe? 🌨️

nacho libre · 08-01-2024 06:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587998#Comment_121587998

He is right about the GFS though, it's a high risk - high reward situation. On that run we get the reward but on the next run it could show the low to the south west cutting off the cold air and us going milder. As regards the other models, a northerly isn't great for his location, unless it's very unstable.

Gonzo · 08-01-2024 06:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588051#Comment_121588051

A northerly isn't great for most of Ireland unless it is unstable. Donegal and perhaps some north-western coastal areas of Mayo may still ok from a northerly as long as pressure isn't too high or Atlantic mixing is kept at bay.

nacho libre · 08-01-2024 06:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588061#Comment_121588061

Well, yes if they are not unstable it won't be of much use to those further south or east, but a half decent one will deliver to much of the north and North west. We used to get those a lot when I was growing up, but as we know well they are rare now.

Eibhir · 08-01-2024 06:37PM

Hopefully if it's a Northerly it's as unstable as us FI posters😜

Gonzo · 08-01-2024 06:46PM

Very poor runs this afternoon. GEM operational has wobbled with too much Atlantic mixing and so has the JMA and to some extent the KMA. What we are looking at on most of the models is a brief battleground scenario but the mild overall is coming in quicker and Atlantic mixing involved which is never a good thing for us as we are usually on the wrong side of marginal.

Having said that I haven't seen any of the ensembles yet so there is a chance that the overall ensembles are better.

nacho libre · 08-01-2024 07:03PM

The GFS control is a massive outlier. I think things are trending the way the UKMO text forecast said they would: cold with some snow showers around at first , but then systems approaching from the south west. I am not confident we won't end up going mild in such a scenario. I hope I am wrong, but I fear it being wet rather white here if this is the direction of travel.

Gonzo · 08-01-2024 07:06PM

As for the GFS operational Atlantic comes back big time with long fetch mild southwesterlies and loads of low pressure back up over Canada which will fire up the Atlantic for us once again. Prior to this the cold spell doesn't come to much with heights over Southern Europe just refusing to go away and we don't tap into proper cold for any decent length of time because the heights over southern Europe are preventing it.

Tomorrow will probably be the day we know were we are going and if there is going to be a cold spell at all. The ECM is about to roll out let's see what that says but my interest in this spell is starting to wane quickly now we need serious upgrades tomorrow.