FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

That trend would tally with the UKMO long range updates. Heights weaken over Greenland thereby allowing the Atlantic to have more of an influence. It's just a question of whether we have enough cold air in situ to ward it off. Unfortunately in a lot of cases we go mild while parts of England gets buried.

We've seen this week how fickle even near total cross model agreement can be. I suppose at least that still leaves hope now the outlook isn't great!

Time and time again we get this cross model signal for high latitude blocking, it lasts 36-48hrs and starts to fade. There must be some incomplete signal in the input data that leads them all down the amplification garden path from time to time.

If they ever fix it, the weather forums would go out of business 😅

Very apt username given the situation :)

It's been like this as long as I can remember. From memories of model watching going back 10+ years this hasn't changed at all. You'd think there would be incremental forecasting improvements in the meantime, and less of these cold weather mirages cropping up which never materialise. And yet we still get this multiple times every winter.

Yes, austrian ski town Mayrhofen, altitude 660m, yr has down for 13c next Saturday, Jan 13, so no cold coming from the east

According to which bullshit online app?

Pay no attention to anything except the national weather services' forecasts up to +96 hours.

I always wondered if Met E viewed the ECM at same time as us but I think I have my answer now. They get it earlier hence the update few hours ago re possibly turning milder next weekend.

Be interesting to see if ECM improves and builds those heights over Greenland over next couple of days. And if it does, will the other models still be showing it!

Yr, the Norwegian crowd that is highly regarded - no need to be so insulting when everyone here is telling up pictures 10 days out

@nacho libre @Gonzo You bought a non-refundable ticket for that rollercoaster. On you get!

Met Eireann said "Current indications suggest that next weekend, there may be a change with our weather becoming milder and with rain developing" and because they base their forecasts primarily off the ECMWF with observation of the UKMO, they would be somewhat correct with this wording, particularly for Friday eve into Saturday when it does got somewhat milder. The EPS runs off the 0Z and considering that was milder than the 12z, they may have based their forecast for next weekend off that.

MTC this morning referred to a 'weak signal' regarding a slow return to seasonable weather.

UKMO favours cold over mild, but has hinted at a potential battleground scenario.

RECENT FORECASTS: MTC called the Christmas weather at least 10 days in advance and was absolutely spot on with his mention of wind and rain. Met Eireann said the Christmas weather would be 'bland' about a week in advance but I wouldn't have thought over a week of strong winds and heavy rain would be 'bland'. That said, they rowed against 'forum' chatter of a cold Christmas. The UKMO never really fancied the idea of cold at Christmas although they did suggest a possible turn at the begging of the New Year.

NEXT WEEKEND AND MODEL OUTPUT: I would say we are in 50/50 territory regarding next weekend. It is not looking mild when you review all output, nor is it looking extremely cold. I do think that the trend towards a more westerly -NAO outlook (Atlantic driven weather patterns) from about 10-12 days time is becoming more likely based on output of the past 24-36 hours but the same output also indicates that a cold blast next weekend remains the form horse.

First of all, this evening's GEM goes cold for the first time in days. It was always the odd one out. I highlighted the 0c and -5c 850 and 2m lines. The 2m temps in particular are much lower in the daytime next weekend and into the following week.

The GEFS shows overall 850s and 2ms to be a tad milder next weekend in the 12z compared to the 00z but it is far from mild nor is there much precip on the cards as Met Éireann suggested.

The ECMWF 12z is a tad cooler, particularly re: 2m temps, for next weekend.

The UKMO 12z is colder than the 0z for next weekend.

The remainder of the models (NASA GEOS, KMA, CMA, ICON, CFS, NAVGEM, JMA) all show an incoming/in place northeasterly or northerly at the same timestamp of 1am next Sunday.

Finally, the NOAA CPC doesn't suggest a strong westerly influence for next weekend. This chart was produced today and is valid for next Sunday (14th) to the 20th.

For there to be a mild outcome next week, there will be an utter collapse of output over the next 24-48 hours. If that happens, then I am going to put in a FOI to the Department of Communications to find out what magnificent modelling system (other than Gerry Murphy) Met Éireann has at its disposal. By the way, ME are the pros and I place great faith in their forecasting so none of of any of this post is aimed at undermining that. It is purely a discussion piece and an attempt to get Gonzo and Nacho back on the rollercoaster!!!

In the meantime, we have the most fantastic dry, cold and clear winter weather to look forward to.

The NAO index can change again. This signal could be due to the mjo being stronger in phase 4 than anticipated which may cause blocking to wane. In any case if we do have an Arctic outbreak the NAO trending neutral could be an indicator of battle ground situations rather than a return to very mild weather .We haven't even firmed up on a snowy cold spell yet so there is no way of knowing what the end of January will be like. No doubt no matter how cold it gets that ec46 yesterday showing blocking for nigh on 5 weeks was deceptive. As even in the winters of 1963 and 1947 there were relaxations of cold .