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EV Depreciation

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,826 ✭✭✭maidhc


    I agree. I assume if I went onto a religion forum and gave logical reasons why there is no deity the feedback would be the same.

    i assumed with this was a thread about the market, market forces rather than religious fervour would be discussed.

    It’s clearly also a Hybrid forum by the way!

    And no one feels strongly about a Camry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,826 ✭✭✭maidhc


    No, just when someone is refusing to believe the NYT saying Ford are scaling back ev production due to demand issues we are going nowhere and it’s easier to let that person believe they are correct.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,713 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Electric F150 are not the barometer of demand. Model Y was the best selling car in the world this year. Not best selling EV and not best selling car in EU or something. Best selling in the world. No car sold more than the model Y. Even more than the US favorite Camry and Corolla too I might add.




  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 6,533 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Ford aren't the only producer in the market, if your claims are that Ford are seeing reduced demand for their products then that should be easy to show numbers for. Your actual claim was that EVs are seeing reduced demand in the US, even though Cox Automotive numbers show that Q2, and then Q3 were record setting quarters for EV sales.

    Sales do not increase in years where demand is decreasing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,562 ✭✭✭sk8board


    Only back here now - I was the OP about the rights or wrongs of asking/giving a charge at someone’s house - thanks for all the perspectives, I just still maintain it’s an early adopter mindset, and not a mass market one. Of course you’d all gladly let someone else use your charger, it’s the nature of early adopters of anything to help each other.

    This whole thread is predicated on the fact that EVs are struggling to convince the mass market buyers to follow the early adopters, and ‘domestic destination charging’ is one such obstacle I think.

    (that, or maybe I go to too many high society candlelight suppers and don’t want to be running a granny charger in the window of their gate lodge 😛😀)



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Ford are scaling back because of demand for “their” product IMO.

    Ford would be on the back foot in terms of EV production.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,826 ✭✭✭maidhc


    Sorry, increasing at a lower than expected rate. It’s still a demand issue that’s the point.

    Credit to Tesla mind you, but they do have a demand issue or else there would not have been price cuts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,713 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    It's not an obstacle. I just charge en route if I know theres no destination charging.

    I'd never let someone use my charger btw, thats mine not public use.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭Casati


    You dont have to buy an EV and try it to know the network isn’t great - just read posts here and on Facebook etc or talk to other owners- however I’m not sure that the network is responsible for the high depreciation:

    High depreciation is down to imo:

    Cars originally costing too much - ie overpriced priced for early adopters. Cars priced well new hold their value well used (eg Ioniq 28)

    Other issues impacting to lessor extent:

    Concern (right or wrong) over the huge cost of battery or motor replacement on an out of warranty

    Quality issues with many EV’s rushed to the market originally

    Buyers expecting further price reductions on new cars

    Dealers general disinterest in EV’s. Few dealers will accept EV’s made by other brands

    Buyers not willing to buy expensive EV’s privately - but tonnes of private buyers trying to sell privately

    Perception that charging network isn’t good enough

    High cost to charge in public


    I would buy a Tesla Model 3 (in white) or a new ID4 facelift and expect both of them to hold their value really well as they are both good value for money now. Megane or E-Tron will see big depreciation as they are still overpriced



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    You haven't proved anything though.

    If you turn up at the Q park and the charger is ICE'd, out of order, in use all day etc. then it's a pain in the ass.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,630 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I can see in 2030 all the big car manufacturers putting pressure on the EU to push the 2035 deadline out. We have already seen VW saying they can't make a profit from EVs... I hope I'm wrong of course



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,713 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Then you just top up at an HPC. Not ideal but still perfectly fine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,562 ✭✭✭sk8board


    I agree completely- but again we’re back to the problem of almost all EVs available today needing to charge ‘somewhere’ for what is only 350km/3-3.5hrs of total driving, 90% easy motorway cruise at 120, and a nice long break in the middle. That’s early adopter stuff - there’s no way the mass market would swallow it.

    let me put it this way - imagine all garages selling EVs were advertising the real world Irish winter ranges for city, rural and motorway - how would sales go? (Purely hypothetical of course, but e.g there’s a lot of 3-4yo cars in the 2nd hand market advertising their (brand new) wltp summer urban range, when clearly ‘battery science is a thing’.

    that’s the juncture we’re at now. Early adopters have their cars, and all the mass market are hearing is that those cars aren’t getting close to their advertised ranges.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,597 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    @sk8board - "the fact that EVs are struggling to convince the mass market buyers to follow the early adopters"

    Hasn't the market proven you wrong already last year? The Tesla Model Y was the best selling car in the world. The masses have switched from buying a combustion engine Toyota Corolla (for decades the best seller) to a full EV. We are somewhere at the start of early majority now

    image.png


    I predicted in 2022 that the Model Y would possibly or even likely be the best seller last year. To lots of ridicule on this forum alone...

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,713 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Take the base model 3. 40k new and real world range of 300-350km winter to summer.

    I don't think we will have many cars that don't need to charge after 350km of real world motorway driving. Most people don't drive those trips.If you did that every day, you are spending one full 24hr day per week driving. Simply not realistic apart from edge cases.

    The cost to add more batteries to give the model 3 (or other cars) enough battery to do 600-700km of real world driving simply doesnt make sense. The best range currently available is the 500-600km of the Mercedes EQS (as well as Lucid and cadillac models not available here) and all 3 are well north of 3X the price of the model 3.

    The model 3 can do 300km on the motorway, stop for 15-25 minutes and do another 200-275. I know, because I do it. In mine, very occasionally and in all weathers. I'd much prefer 1-5 stops per year with 60k plus not spent on a bigger battery!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,562 ✭✭✭sk8board


    I know and again I agree - but it’s like people who spend more for a 7-seater for those few times a year they actually use it.

    again - the mass market wont accept inconvenience for those few trips a month or year.

    EVs will get there, but I spoke to people at a NYE house party, with all the money in the world to buy whatever car they want, and their EV knowledge was still 3-4 years old, or based on feedback from someone who already had an EV.

    curiously a few of them were literally aghast about that Weckler article about depreciation - that’s what started the whole conversation. Yes we’re that boring.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,562 ✭✭✭sk8board


    This thread is about the mass market adoption of EVs in Ireland, not the sales to early adopters world wide.

    toyota don’t seem to be doing too badly at the moment either, and seem happy that their early call on EVs struggling to go from early adopter to mass market (for the time being), was the right one.

    indeed, production cuts for virtually every EV on the plant would seem to back that up.

    People here have also predicted the ‘fall of the OEMs’ for about a decade here btw - I’m not being a d1ck, but let’s at least have an honest debate that EVs have gone from the hottest new thing, into a definite state of flux - which brings us back OT regarding EV depreciation of 2nd hand EVs and the fact that the mass market 2nd hand buyers very clearly don’t want to pay the piper, and a lot of early EV adopters are left holding a car which they love but has cost them far more than expected in total cost of ownership.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,997 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    again that comes back to my point about the general ignorance / lack of knowledge. People over estimate how far they travel, what range they need, how much space they need, how often they will need to publicly charge.

    Ironically when people have the option of paying more for more range many elect not to (see tesla model 3 buyers!)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,562 ✭✭✭sk8board


    Absolutely - but what’s that phrase about “common sense not being common”.

    we always forget that this is a motoring forum, representing the perhaps 2-5% of drivers who would considering themselves ‘car people’.

    everyone else just wants a car to do what they require and couldn’t care less about what propels it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,997 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    you crystallise a loss on something when you sell,

    if EVs are depreciating more because prices have been cut your cost to change to a new one may not be any different, if you are hanging onto what you have then you arent losing anything.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,997 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    but the car will do what they require if they stood back and thought about it 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,562 ✭✭✭sk8board


    whatever way you cut it, mathematics doesn’t really support any of that when it comes to true cost of ownership.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,997 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    i disagree, you could be correct if our straw person is opting out of the car market at the end but if they are going into another car then i could well be correct.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,826 ✭✭✭maidhc


    I think it’s the other way around. As you said the loss is crystallised when the car is sold and the only thing that matters is the cost to change.

    The cost to change an EV is currently far higher than the cost to charge a P/HEV. QED.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,597 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    @sk8board - "This thread is about the mass market adoption of EVs in Ireland, not the sales to early adopters world wide."

    Indeed. Ireland is as always a bit behind. But not that far behind. It is a certainty we will catch up. But it might take a year or two.

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 6,533 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Assuming you mean the cost change a PHEV instead of charge it, PHEV's didn't see the low supply high demand price gouging so haven't suffered from the same drop in new prices.

    It was nuts that people were buying new ID.3's in '20 and selling for them higher prices than they bought them in '22.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,597 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    How that Weckler has any credibility is beyond me. He's never shown to know anyting about anything with the exception of Apple products.

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,826 ✭✭✭maidhc


    Everything was daft then, but I’m really just assuming we are talking about someone who bought new in 2020 or 2021 and is changing now.

    Mind you in the US it seems Toyota and Honda are plagued with dealers price gouging on new Hybrids, the Rav4 prime as it’s called being a particular victim.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,997 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    as i said if the new ev has had a price cut, which many have, then the decrease in the value of the ev you are trading is potentially mitigated leaving you no worse off than if the price cut and the increased depreciation never happened.



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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 6,533 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Looking at some guidelines, a 3-year-old car should be sitting at around 58% of its original price, and 49% for a 4-year-old. I think that's roughly the prices we're seeing for EVs. A more legitimate story on EV depreciation would show's that EVs are just cars and are following standard depreciation curves, probably one for a slow news day.

    ID.3's were on sale starting from 33k, is anyone that surprised they are showing up from around 22k now?



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