Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Are you double counting the inflation there? 🙂

The 108k already counts the inflation - no? ...........you appear to have just plucked an alternate inflation rate out of the air.

Are you mixing up inflation and interest? You are talking about one and then the other. I mean you can talk about the inflation component of a nominal interest rate if you want, and strip that out to get a real interest rate, but I don't think that is what you are talking about

yes, definitely.

The 30k units we are building is more than Ireland would need with no net migration. In 2022 Ireland's natural population increase was 20k and given how low are fertility rate has fallen to, 1.63 (well bellow the replacement rate of 2.1) the natural increase will turn negative within 20 years.

So this bullshit claim we need to be building anything like 50k units is ridiculous. It must be for FG immigration policy. If they do belive we need to build 50k units but are "only" building 30k units then they have to curtail their immigration policy.

Plenty of jobs here, near full employment. Immigrants needed.

I converted 42k 1992 pounds to 2023 euros using an inflation calculator to see the cash purchase price today. Then assumed a 7%interest over 25 years with no down payment.

As i said, it's very rough.

The market of the 80s and 90s isn't comparable to today. Houses back then cost a lot less relative to the average salary, and single income households were not yet functionally extinct. Case in point, my parents sold their Dublin 3 house for 75k pounds in 1997, and that same house is today worth about 600k. That's well above the rate of inflation, and I would add that they bought that house in 1988 when they were in their mid 20s when my mother only worked part-time. That simply isn't happening today.

If you are on an average salary in Dublin, you will struggle to find anything beyond a small apartment, and even that could be a stretch. Two people on an average salary could probably get something, but the semi-detached house in a nice area is now the purview of high earners, and I even know people like that who are constantly getting outbid.

In short, it's a s**t-show, and it is going to fundamentally affect the future of the country in a very negative way and few seem to care as long as they are comfortable in their own bubble.

"no good investments"

It's the people selling the houses who made good investments, not the ones buying!

The northwest is a unique case due to defective blocks - the shortage there is much worse than rest of the country because so many 2nd hand homes are just not viable to purchase. Then add in the construction labour tied up in repairs/rebuilds... Expect prices there to rise 10% or more per annum for the next few years.

Another problem is the number of s**ty celtic tiger builds that are all over the country. From apartment blocks full of issues to cardboard houses, I really wonder how these houses will age given that many of them already look to be in poor nick. There's a block of apartments in the town I live in that look very rough, and they're only 20 years old. One would hope that new builds are of a higher quality.

I agree on your second paragraph. I'm 37, so I'm a bit old to be emigrating, but I do sometimes think that I should have jumped ship. I'm actually eligible for Italian citizenship, and I speak the language quite well. Winters in Wexford do sometimes make me wonder if an apartment in Lucca would not be a better option for a single man...

Limited number of suppliers who were supplying millions of blocks a month at peak.

Much of Donegal affected - as a result there are not many unaffected properties available at any price. The supply simply doesn't exist, as nobody who holds a non-defective home is willing to move (and there isn't supply of new builds either for them to move into).

It's an example of a market totally stuck by lack of supply. The game of musical chairs is broken there.