Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121564036#Comment_121564036

Based on Dublin open days for new build launches (was at Cherrywood and woodbrook) it’s at least 50% foreigners.

these people seem to have a lot more flexibility with regards to property type too. Happy to buy new build estates in less desirable areas (many Indians buying in clongriffin) or apartments (all the privately sold big blocks in SD along the luas seems to be 80% foreign owner occupiers) if that’s the only thing fitting the budget. Irish buyer seem to be waiting till houses in Blackrock drop in price. Typical SF voting idiot strategy.

J_1980

https://www.statista.com/statistics/543383/house-owners-among-population-ireland/#:~:text=The%20homeownership%20rate%20in%20Ireland,amounted%20to%20about%2070%20percent.

home ownership rate is ticking up again.

landlords are net sellers and houses are not magically disappearing, so I believe these statistics.

Just because some left wing losers and their mates can’t buy their semi-D in blackrock doesn’t mean everyone else is renting.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121564453#Comment_121564453

Who is holding off in the hope of buying a semi-D in BlackRock?

That's the biggest strawman yet.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121564294#Comment_121564294

Home ownership will not decline that much, but it will decline. The real thing to be worried about is the shrinking rental supply coupled with an increase in population. The rental market is going to get so much worse in the next decade. The government will try price controls to appease voters, we all know the effect of price fixing attempts. Then we see homelessness rocket.

Unless rental investments are made attractive the supply is going to dwindle away to nothing. Even REITs and foreign funds no longer see it as attractive to invest in rental schemes here.

fartooreasonable

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121564453#Comment_121564453

Just one point, who's the author of the statistics? If your going to believe a graph it helps if you know where the data comes from.

You've just came on here with a uncited graph and told people their problems don't exist because of it.

MacronvFrugals

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121564036#Comment_121564036

I suspect there is a lot of truth to this also, I'm working in a large tech firm and the Indian guys will often look to buy immediately once allowed.

from the roughly 25 colleagues / ex-colleagues I know the areas of choice are

D13 (Clongriffin and Baldoyle)

D18(Clay farm, Glencairn Gate developments)

Kildare (kill mostly) - Even heard from one of the guys "this will be like Sandyford in 10 years"

with some others thrown in, as another poster said there's a preference for new build and decent transport links.

It makes sense many of these guys are on good salaries and have seen their rents continuing to rise, its also not completely uncommon for two or three families to band together and split the cost of a new build.

snl rory

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121564764#Comment_121564764

This is what I suspect also, Therefore the government exciting statistic isn't all its cracked up to be.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121564294#Comment_121564294

Thats...wildly factually incorrect. Home ownership rates have been dropping since 1991, they didn't increase in the 1990s/2000s.

"People are continuing to buy" is always going to be true, a certain number of people will always be buying a house. The issue is the per capita rate of buying is dropping consistently every year, and so is our home ownership rate. The data doesn't lie. The 35% future home ownership rate estimation is from the ESRI, not me. I'd imagine they know far more about this than either of us.

Any immigrant background of renters won't matter when it comes to the ballot box. They'll vote for measures in favour of renters, and to the cost of home owners/landlords, just as readily as native born Irish renters.

SF, and the other opposition parties, have all stated they'll expand state building of housing massively - which is more than either FF or FG have achieved since 2011. They've laid out how in detail in their policy documents, have you read them?

Its not just the majority of young people, its now 30%+ of ABC1s - the highest earning people in the country - across all age ranges. Those people are going to vote for SF almost purely because of the current housing market disaster, 30%+ of the highest earning people in the country are not natural Republican Socialists. Thats how badly FG and FG have handled the property market over the last decade.

JohnnyChimpo

The best bogeyman of the Irish property market I've ever heard - the mythical hordes of extreme lefties (who are also SF hardliners (?) ) monitoring the Blackrock semi-D market 😂

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557165#Comment_121557165

Not to get too personal but, I could have done what a lot of my friends (strangely the ones who now have their own houses and apartments) did back then and went straight into the workforce and started saving for a house deposit. But instead I went on for my masters (total waste of time). I worked for a couple of years saved for a deposit and was about to buy then with my then gf, but then we decided top go traveling for a year, which turned into 3 years (i wouldnt say that was a mistake but it cost a lot of money both in spends and earnings forgone). When I got home I ended up eventually in a good job, but i had the travel bug and probably went somewhere at least every month.

I added up all the money I "wasted" (my own definition of wasted) and I could easily afford a nice big house now if i hadnt spent it all on experiences and cars. I spent some serious amount of money of coffee over the years added up too (if people want a shock tot coffee money up). Im a bit late learning that spending money instead saving it and getting your major financial needs out of the way young are very important as there was only one time in history that the market came to people instead of running away from them.

Its kind of like not funding your pension until your 50s and wondering why its not going to be enough when you retire. Time is everything and time at the beginning matters most. Thats one thing ive learned from my job in finance. I learned it too late though. But at least ive learned it and am taking on the responsibility to fix my situation, which hopefully will be sorted in the next few months.

Or I could keep going as I was and just moan about it and blame others and see if that helps. But my proof to myself is looking at who has and has not bough their houses among my friends. ITs so obvious to me looking at that.

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121564136#Comment_121564136

Partly an effect of construction lockdowns. Because during covid some Romanians and other E. Europeans got cold feet and went back to Europe when we shut down construction sector indefinitely. They were uncertain of the future so took the safe option of going back to their more familiar country. Monomaniacal priorities around so-called 'public health' having years of ripple effect unintended consequences. These disruptions to the size of the work force in 2020 and 2021 and still being felt now.

Also many people (e.g. Government supporters, business lobbyists) obfuscate the obvious direct connection between the size of the labour supply and wages which you elucidate here. They don't want other people to understand it because they want to retain the option of being able to deniably depress wages in any sector or across the whole economy - not just where there are keenly felt shortages e.g. nurses, blocklayers.

Amazingly, many Irish people refuse to understand (or own up to) simple economic principles like supply and demand as applied to the labour force.

Related:

"Micheál Martin has said halting construction work on new homes during lockdown is one of the main regrets of his tenure as Taoiseach so far."

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-expresses-regret-over-lockdown-halt-to-home-building-1233568.html

fartooreasonable

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565456#Comment_121565456

Even if house building wasn't stopped during the pandemic we would still likely be behind the numbers of houses required. It certainly would have helped but not to the degree that is needed.

Moreover there's plenty of small towns with no planned developments. I'm in one at the moment the latest planned development was blocked because it would overwhelm local services.

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565487#Comment_121565487

Right but I was dealing with a specific claim re wages in the construction sector.

If wages in construction niches have become unaffordable then I would say that the contruction lockdowns of 2020-21 are even more of an aggravating factor in retrospect than they at first appeared.

Because construction lockdowns have both delayed house building and helped create a wage boom (via workers exiting the country) which makes house-building more difficult now. So that is a double hit.

growleaves

@fartooreasonable 'Moreover there's plenty of small towns with no planned developments. I'm in one at the moment the latest planned development was blocked because it would overwhelm local services.'

I don't think that anyone denies that the situation is multi-factorial. But the factors I'm talking about are often hushed up to an extent.

Most of the population supported the lockdowns, often in a quite hysterical manner, and so maybe feel like fools now admitting there are/were huge drawbacks and consequences to artificially shutting down building and the economy.

Lies are continually spun about the direct relationship between wages and numbers of workers in a sector. Once you admit the (obvious) connection between the size of the labour supply and wages it becomes harder to justify carté blanche immigration policies. Business lobbyists and left-wing so-called 'anti-racist' people have their own agendas in this regard.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565309#Comment_121565309

You keep saying in multiple posts in various forms that ‘the per capita rate of new buyers is falling consistently each year’

Here are the per capita (per 1000 people) first time buyers since records started in 2015 until 2023 per BPFI and CSO.

2015 - 3.16

2016 - 3.58

2017 - 4.63

2018 - 4.53

2019 - 5.12

2020 - 4.68

2021 - 5.81

2022 - 5.56

2023 - 6.21

so an average INCREASE per capita of 10% per annum. Cumulatively doubled per capita since 2015. Only one meaningful reduction in 2020 (subsequent massive jump in 2021, so just a timing issue with COVID).

COVID distortion aside. Per capita rates of first time buyers have been increasing at a very rapid pace and in almost every single year since prices began to recover and records began.

I know you will now switch point to say it’s lower than ESRI suggests we need (which is true) or homeownership rates or falling etc. but your repeated statement could not be more false.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565456#Comment_121565456

Let's also not forget that, in addition to closing construction, the state flooded the domestic economy with billions in fiat currency whilst simultaneously closing down supply chains. The lockdowns played an enormous part in exacerbating an already problem with accommodation. Mind you, there's something very strange about having a shortage of housing after a pandemic, but I don't think we live reasonable times anymore.

fartooreasonable

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565578#Comment_121565578

I don't disagree with you on either point it's just complex when you consider what he alternative is. I work in a hospital and worked during COVID. I have had to use the EU's right to forget to block people directly calling me a murderer for whet happened online, and that was with us trying to 'save' everyone. Could you imagine what would have happened of I was given carte blanche to decide who lives and dies,

As for the migration we are seeing now we could of course withdraw from the numerous treaties requiring us to house people but it would backfire on our economy and given our international exposure wouldn't be a good thing. It also must be stated we do benefit in many ways from the states where these people come from. Be it cheap oil and gas from theocratic dictatorships to primary resources from warlords in Africa we contribute to these countries situations that require people to move due to economic reasons or genuine risk to life. The perfect example is lithium used in our EV cars and consumer products and it's environmental destruction in extraction alongside practical slavery to extract it in some African countries.

Of course COVID and migration are issues but with things likely to get worse it's difficult to watch homeowner's being largely insulated from these issues and those looking to buy seeing the goal posts move further and further away for many.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565648#Comment_121565648

You're literally lying in this post, or else are apparently unable to read. You're claiming, and quoting me, as having said "‘the per capita rate of new buyers is falling consistently each year’"

When the very post you're quoting of mine says "The issue is the per capita rate of buying is dropping consistently every year, and so is our home ownership rate."

Per capita rate of buying is not the same as the raw number of FTBs, thats you very deliberately (or very obtusely) attempting to move the goal posts.

The home ownership rate in Ireland went from 69.7% in 2011, to 67.6% in 2016, to 66% in 2022.

That means the per capita rate of home buying, and home owning, is dropping, very obviously.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565984#Comment_121565984

In terms of ownership, per capita rate of buying means per capita rate of first time buyers as you could have 10 million transactions of non FTBs swapping houses that has 0 impact on home ownership.

As I've tried to explain before you can absolutely have (as we currently have) significantly increasing per capita rates of new home buyers but a falling home ownership because the mix of people falling out of statistics (those dying) had close to 100% home ownership rates. It’s ok if you don’t understand that but don’t let it lead you to false conclusions.

Anyway - per capita rates of first time buying has been dramatically increasing for at least a decade. That is the indisputable fact.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565773#Comment_121565773

A lot of tenancies would have been voluntarily given up back in 2020 and I have no doubt that LLs who already had one eye on the door took the opportunity to exit the market.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121565427#Comment_121565427

Well you missed the point of the question.

And what I asked was not analogous to funding a pension. nor should it be. I was asking you to reflect on getting onto the first step of the ladder - not how far up the ladder you are now.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121566107#Comment_121566107

"per capita rate of buying" does not mean "per capita rate of first time buyers". They're entirely different statistics. Trying to conflate the two when called out just shows intellectual dishonesty.

Older home owners dying and not being replaced by young home owners is largely responsible for the decline in the home ownership rate, yes. I don't think it takes much to understand this, but I'm glad you apparently now do.

The home ownership rate in Ireland went from 69.7% in 2011, to 67.6% in 2016, to 66% in 2022. The share of 25-34 year olds who own their own home more than halved between 2004 and 2019, falling from 60 per cent to just 27 per cent. Those are the indisputatable facts about home ownership trends in the current Irish housing market.

Trying to claim - and I quote directly - "things are the best they've been in a long long time" - purely because overall FTB numbers are increasing from an incredibly low recession era level, while the Irish population has also been expanding massively, is a pretty spectacularly bad (or politically blinkered) view of home ownership percentage trends in the Irish housing market.

And, again, this isn't my speculative opinion, or even just down to the data above - if things were going so well the opinion polls wouldn't be showing housing as the number one issue for voters in Ireland. Which it is, because things are going so very badly in the real world.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567099#Comment_121567099

You arent making any sense at all. Its like you are trying to put your words in my mouth or something.

Do you want me to say that it would never have been possible for me to own a house by now had I not applied myself to the task instead of leaving it on the long finger? Sorry, I cant say that. Im 100% sure that if I had have taken the goal of owning a home more seriously when i was younger, there is no reason whatsoever that i wouldnt own one by now. As it is I still hope to own one this year. Better late than never, but it wont be the 3 bed semi that I was after. It might be an apartment or a 2 bed terrace at this stage. Sometimes you just have to settle for what you can bank and worry about the next step later.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568666#Comment_121568666

No. I was trying to make the point that, despite you appearing to agree with posts denying this, it is clearly more difficult for you to get your foot on the bottom run of the ladder today than it would have been whatever years ago your buddies got on.

If you would have gotten onto the ladder after say 2 years of work 10 years ago, but you find yourself struggling to get on it after say 4 years of work today ..... then either your earning capacity has decreased substantially compared to 10 years ago (unlikely) or else the market is much more difficult now.

I'm not talking about you being focused on getting a house for the entire period in between. Of course you would be in a better position had you done that. I was talking about your story which was you saying you pi$sed around until your late 20's and then started.

Don't forget that there are people who are currently the age you were 2014, for whom buying a house in 2014 wasn't an option. (I'm using 2014 to represent whatever year you are talking about). I think you are more focused on kicking yourself for not getting onto the ship before the tide lifted it up.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568690#Comment_121568690

As my Dad is always saying to me when im having a bit of a moan - "Son, it was never easy to buy a house. Dont mind all those gobsh1tes telling you people had it easier years ago. You'll be hearing the same sh1te from the people born today when you are old. We all at one point thought that we would never get there. And not everyone can afford a house, but today you can get a better one by not working than what you can get if you are killing yourself working."

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568720#Comment_121568720

The reason I asked you is that you gave the impression that all your buddies bought while in their early 20's and you could have done it too back then. Did I take you up wrong on that?

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568733#Comment_121568733

The point I was making was that those who didnt stay in education or traveling afterwards and settled down with other halves were able to buy easily. Even my cousin who is 6 years younger than me bought a house last year. Why? He left school, didnt go to college, but got a good job and is buying with his like minded gf.

Im not going to sit here for you and pretend that its someone elses fault i havent bought a house yet. It doesnt help that rents are so high now and sucking peoples money from them, but we all know how we got there. All of us expect the people who caused it do anyway.

Also yes, im a bit sickened that i'll have to settle for something far less than what i want while i watch a couple of relatives who never worked a day i their lives get palaces for free.

Eclectic Econometrics

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568720#Comment_121568720

Not to besmirch your father but, there was a period between the early aughts and the GFC that I could've got my dog a mortgage easier than humans can today.

I can't tell if you are a bit melancholy or made peace with not buying earlier but, in reality, you could've finished Uni with the target of buying a house ASAP, walked out the door for your first Monday of work and got hit by a bus.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568720#Comment_121568720

That's the crux of it.

Mam and Dad built a house at 26 years old in the late 80's. Dad had been working 10 years at this time, left school at 15, worked in a factory and qualified in a trade with them. Mam 8, she got a good job in a bank off the back of her leaving cert. They saved for years.

You'd hardly put a dog in the house they built nowadays. Single glazed windows, uninsulated cavity block walls, maybe 3 inches of fibreglass insulation in the attic. Interest rates were in double digits, the appliances were bought on hire purchase over the course of a few years.

That was all typical for the time.

They say the same thing. Younger colleagues saying "you don't know how lucky you were". They think we're lucky, walking into fully furnished, A rated homes. Don't have to light a fire every day from October to April to heat your home and the water. Dont have to spend a month's salary to buy a washing machine.

The idea of going out for dinner back then was a luxury, maybe once a month. Foreign holidays were unheard of. People used to get nicknames because they went abroad once. Clothes, cars, "experiences" these are all new since maybe the late 1990's, early 2000s.

Again, I'm don't want to dismiss anyone who genuinely can't get on the property ladder, but people leaving college at 24-26 years old and expecting a career, a house, a baby and financial security by early 30s are fooling themselves.

That's why I have to laugh at @Blut2 statistic that home owners are getting older. Of course they are. Sure most people don't start their working lives until their mid-20s, and it's illegal to build the same houses their parents owned back in the day.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568777#Comment_121568777

These kind of posts are nonsense.

The bit you are leaving out is that someone in your fathers class in school who stayed in education until they got a degree and went into a handy job such as teaching, likely also had a house bought at 26 if not younger.

Comparing standards across times would be like an ex-80's-yuppie-now-boomer saying "Look at you with your fancy nokia 3310. When I was your age in the 80's we were so poor that I had to carry around a mobile phone the size of a brick and I had to save 2 months salary just to buy it"

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568823#Comment_121568823

A degree back then was the equivalent of a phd today. The point the poster was making was that it has always hard to buy…..Back then it was difficult to secure a mortgage unless you had a job paid by the government. Getting a mortgage today would be considerably easier.