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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...ould mary is just being a typical politician, and talking sh1te about housing, we ve entered the big election competition, i.e. talk sh1te, in order to try increase support, all will be at this until the actual ge



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I didn't put forward the idea of decentralization. It was very, very much another user.

    I only qualified that it was tried in another era before remote-working.

    I suggested remote-working might play a part in tackling urban population pressure, hardly a novel idea I'll admit.

    You now correctly acknowledge I wasn't suggesting a panacea, but suggest then I should!!! Why? How many problems have a quick and easy, one size fits all solution, which is what the term means?

    Sometimes I don't know why I bother with you lot!



  • Posts: 14,708 [Deleted User]


    Wasn’t that the reason it failed the first time? People who lived it Dublin didn’t want to live in Letterkenny, whether it was full time office, blended, or fully remote. So I’m not sure why that poster thinks remote working makes a policy of decentralisation any more likely to succeed, remote working means the public servants can continue to live in Dublin even though the Dept might be in Letterkenny, if they are required to be in the office, then in all probability there will be resistance to being forced to relocate.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,846 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I didn't put forward the idea of decentralization. It was very, very much another user.

    I only qualified that it was tried in another era before remote-working.

    I didn't state that you did. Your suggestion was that it hadn't been done with remote working so you obviously think the two are a viable option.

    You now correctly acknowledge I wasn't suggesting a panacea, but suggest then I should!!! Why? How many problems have a quick and easy, one size fits all solution, which is what the term means?

    I certainly did not acknowledge that.

    Sometimes I don't know why I bother with you lot!

    Nobody is stopping you from leaving here!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 185 ✭✭drop table Users


    IMG_4341.png

    Time to inject some reality into this thread

    1. we are already at record building levels above Celtic tiger
    2. migration below Celtic tiger
    3. people are not getting into insane debt like they done during Celtic tiger days
    4. we are not in a baby boom


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I don't think that chart is accurate. There was 93000 dwellings built in 2006, your chart says only about 25000 built.

    Some 93,419 houses were built in 2006; 78,027 in 2007; 51,724 in 2008; and 26,420 in 2009.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ....so we re now building over the record high of 90,000 units post crash, go ffg!

    ...credit is still actually playing a vital role in our property markets, but since we have a serious supply problem, theres a limited number of people getting into serious debt, the other potentials are currently stuck in the rental sector, or worse.....

    those that can get access to credit, are actually acquiring large amounts of debt doing so, i.e. again, a numbers game, less amount of people, but overall, large amounts of debt in many individual cases, and in some cases long term mortgages to....i have family currently in this game, just bought a 400k bog standard house, mostly debt, so they ll be happily repaying that into their 70's, happy days, everyones a winner!



  • Posts: 14,708 [Deleted User]


    Few financed house buyers are anything other than mostly debt when they take out a mortgage. Your family member now has a home instead of having to pay rent, so what are you complaining about?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    what i and in fact they are complaining about is, their siblings and peers are effectively fcuked, and they know it, and have a guess where theyre sill going with their votes!

    ...again, ffg are in big trouble!

    again, financialisation of the whole process of housing has failed, and spectacularly so!

    ..oh and also, dont forget, some have decided, lets burn everything, in order to solve this....

    the anti brigade are here folks, so get ready!



  • Posts: 14,708 [Deleted User]


    By any chance do you know which detail of SFs plan on how to deal with the housing/health crisis appealed to them most? I’m sure you asked them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,964 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ..its the fact sf represents a change, a potential difference in approach, this is exactly whats happening in many other advanced economies around the world, why we re now experiencing a rapid rise in the alternatives, the established parties are screwed, as its clearly obvious its polices have failed. again, details dont matter, hence why the extremes are being voted in, if you think ireland is safe from this, if you think ffg are gonna be fine after the next ge, you re gonna be shocked



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Change is not always better. And definitely will not be better with SF in power.

    The moaners who are currently moaning about not being able to afford a house will still be moaning when they have no job and a worse economy and still unable to buy a house, after SF go Truss/Kwarteng on steroids.



  • Posts: 14,708 [Deleted User]


    I do agree with you that people seem to be voting for change, Trump, Brexit etc, but I think you are wrong to assume that the majority will vote for SF, and I suspect that at some stage the more intelligent voters will want to know just how SF are going to achieve change, details do matter.

    Can you give us some insight on what you think SF voters will look for, or do you think people will just swallow the BS?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 900 ✭✭✭sameoldname


    SF are offering tax cuts and spending increases with an enlarged construction sector (If you believe them). How in the name of Christ is that a difference in approach for this country?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze



    I suppose stop/prevent funds and non-households from buying new houses?

    Stop LA from buying new houses, let them only build new houses, not buy new houses?

    Same goes for AHB?


    Stop foreign funds from buying houses?

    Restrict immigration? If AS was brought to zero, and UKR refugees was halved, then demand for accomm would drop.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    We might end up with a SF led government after the next election, but the reality is they are moving more towards the center and moving away from some of the crazier stuff. We will have EO'B as housing minister, so we will see if he actually knows what he is talking about or if he is basically all college experience (new grad). It is very easy to point to other successful countries and say we should do what they are doing, it's much harder to implement as governments aren't moving chess pieces around a board, they are dealing with lot's of vested self interests (including individuals who may or may not decide to get into the construction industry). We will also have David "up the ra" Cullinaine as minister for health, no comment needed...

    When it inevitably turns out to be a bit harder to solve than they made out, what are they going to say? Nobody cares about excuses. They will have a year or 2 and then they will own the problems. Nobody cared that post 2008 until at least 2015/2016 we were still in the housing bubble recession (we only dropped below 10% unemployment rate in 2015). Certainly nobody cares that we had the pandemic from 2020-2021 and the Ukraine war and the resulting inflation. So any suggestion that the voters will be willing to give SF 10 years to solve the problems and be patient are absolutely delusional.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Jaysus, get your story straight.

    And you might want to thank me for showing you what the word panacea means, though it still doesn't look like you get it.

    It's clear I'm needed here so I'll stick around, but could you do a bit better than going around in your daft circles and jumping to 'obvious' false conclusions?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The anti establishment / expecting a free house voters who will put SF into power in the next election will not be one bit impressed when these houses do not materialise within a 5 year term (I'll be shocked if SF manage a full term to be honest) and power will return to a coalition of FG/FF.

    Homer Simpson as sanitation commissioner will be played out in real life.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I don't know if I'm the poster you're ascribing that view to?

    I don't think we should be trying decentralisation for a second time.

    I think there's a possibility to use remote working to lesson the need for people to live as closely to urban centres, and bring about some of the desired effects of decentralisation through this approach.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Communism would be a change , Khmer Rouge would also be a change.

    Change doesn't mean better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    I think SF might have an issue with stopping immigration.

    So you want to kill off the buy to let market? If houses drop to 300K then everyone and their dog will be back at the BTL job. Because we know that prices will increase again.

    The only way this works is if its cheap social housing that the state maintains ownership of. It wont be houses it will be blocks of flats because if anyone starts subsidizing houses down to 300K the market will crash.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    It'll be 4 (at best) years of "we inherited this problem from FFG, its not our fault"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    But people want to live close to urban centres? Its not just about working locally. I know many people who moved out of Dublin during covid and are all trying to move back because while it might be cheaper to live in X, there is a reason its cheaper.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I'll probably end up voting for SF in the next election.

    Not my first choice but they'll most likely end up with my vote by transfer.

    I don't expect them to fix the housing crisis within two years.

    It's been allowed get so bad that nobody could.

    I'll consider it a huge improvement on today's situation if

    a) they're making an honest effort.

    b) they're willing to make meaningful interventions to the construction industry, and shift away from this failed approach of prioritising a nonexistent free market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I've no doubt that's happened in some cases.

    I'm happy to be able to live away from one of the bigger cities and a lot of people I work with remotely express the same.

    Probably a thing that suits some but not others. I'd guess age is a factor too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    "a) they're making an honest effort."

    What does that even mean?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    My fear with SF is that they take measures that seem reasonable to them but will have the effect of reducing supply overall. Then, to combat the further rise in prices due to reduced supply, they will introduce price caps, which will further discourage supply and create even larger numbers unable to find accommodation.

    An example of this might be opposing supply of up-market housing on the basis that average ftbs and renters can't afford it. By doing so, they will fail to realize that this merely puts those with money in direct competition with those lower down the scale driving prices up at the lower levels or, if caps are put in place, creating queues of people trying to buy or rent.

    In other words, taking a simplistic Marxist view of things and thereby making the very problem they are trying to solve even worse.

    But it may be that we as a people need to go through a phase of SF failure to flush bad ideologies out of the system so we can move on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    This.

    Bringing the average house price in Dublin down to 300K will make it next to impossible for the average person to own one, as the above average people will just become landlords again.

    If SF tank house prices but don't impact my salary, why wouldn't I buy houses to invest in? I know they are going to go back up, thats just what happens to house prices.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,846 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I don't expect them to fix the housing crisis within two years.

    Anyone who would have such a short term expectation is a fool!

    a) they're making an honest effort.

    What exactly is an "honest effort"? If they bugger the economy and tank the housing market but they had good intentions, is that ok in your view? Because their knowledge of economics so far is dire to the point that it really should be worrying people (but maybe they're just being taken in by the populist nonsense).

    b) they're willing to make meaningful interventions to the construction industry, and shift away from this failed approach of prioritising a nonexistent free market.

    What interventions are they willing to make because so far, all they've done is hurl from the ditch? They have had opportunities both at council level in the Republic and NI and also at Assembley level in NI and yet they've done nothing of what you seem to be expecting them to do!



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