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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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Comments

  • Posts: 14,708 [Deleted User]


    Have you considered that young people may not be interested in construction jobs? Are IT and pharma undergraduates being paid €8 per hour during their studies?

    On the one hand you claim to understand the significant disruption directly caused byCovid, and legacy problems it continues to have on the construction sector, but you won’t acknowledge that it severely hampered the delivery of new housing during the term of this particular government. I am not confident that your understanding is as comprehensive as you think it is. I have recently finished a construction project on my own home, every single one of the tradesmen said they are having great difficulty getting workers since Covid, all complained about the continuing cost of materials and the concern about not getting paid, which seems to be increasing as costs have risen, leading to them being selective about who they work for, and do work for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I know them not being interested in construction jobs is part of it. I believe a lot of younger people are put off it because they've seen so many in the generation before having to emigrate after the last crash. Yet here we are in a similar (hopefully not so severe) boom to bust cycle.

    I can't speak for Pharma but I believe IT pays Software Apprentices far more than 8 euro an hour.

    And there's been all sorts of pathways developed for people to switch careers with paid one-year conversion courses.

    Skills shortages didn't start with Covid by a long-shot. Maybe the workers you met were just using that as a reference point? Here's an article from 2014 talking about shortages. Yet 10 years later there have been no incentives to attract more people to the area.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/construction-report-30-increase-2018-1333087-Feb2014/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,498 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    It's funny how people think all our housing issues are the fault of "FFG".

    Yet the same problems are being seen pretty much everywhere around the world.

    Does that not tell people anything about the roots of the issues and the likely feasibility of a quick-fix as is being proposed by SF?



  • Posts: 14,708 [Deleted User]


    Ah c’mon, Ireland was just coming out of a recession during which many construction workers had emigrated when that article was written.

    If anything, it reinforces my point that this Government is not responsible for people not wanting to work on sites anymore. There are now better paid, more stable and indoor jobs which are more appealing. Again, you can’t make a kid who wants to work in IT be a block layer, no matter how you incentivise it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,432 ✭✭✭circadian


    I'm not sure what their plan would be to achieve reducing property prices, but any sort of government incentive would need to be protected from gouging at the other end. Something the government has made no attempt to solve in the past, just look at any of the energy grants/incentives and you'll get the idea. I work closely with the public sector and one thing I've noticed was out of all the office based jobs civil servants were back in the office full time or close to full time post Covid. The public service employs around 15% of the population and could do with decentralisation/enhanced remote working to allow people to move out of the Dublin area.

    We see the housing crisis as one problem but it's actually just a symptom of other issues like poor planning, NIMBYism, ineffective governance, and good old fashioned cronyism. The fact that you contact your TD instead of a local councillor to sort a local issue says it all really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,432 ✭✭✭circadian


    As a population we're apartment averse and I'm not surprised given the shocking quality of apartments built during the Celtic Tiger years and post 2008 crash. Medium to high density apartments that are suitable for families should be considered around transit areas like train/luas/dart stops and main bus thoroughfares.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Things had picked up quite a bit in 2014. https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-surges-ahead-with-4-8-growth-in-2014-1.2136685

    I'm sure there are plenty of articles around construction skills shortages between 2014 and 2020 too but feel free to google that yourself.

    Yes trade jobs don't offer the best pay. Even though it's not bad. I'd personally think a lack of job-security and job-progression options are a bigger issue.

    These are factors which could be countered with government measures but again.... nothing.

    As for IT being preferable to Construction. I'm not so sure. It's not for everyone. Back when I did a conversion course to IT during the crash there were plenty of lads coming from construction who would have given anything to go back to site work.

    Every so often I think of a career change myself but rule out construction immediately because of that lack of job security.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    This is the obvious solution for Dublin. My brother in law rents a 3 bed apartment in Lisbon, which is larger in sq metres than my Dublin 3 bed semi d. There are 6 floors of apartments in the block, with 2 apartments on each floor. Those 2 units taken up a similar ground space to 3 or 4 semi d houses (at a guess).

    He is a 5 or 10 minute walk from a metro, and less than 30 minutes walk to the city centre.

    Dublin is designed so badly!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I can understand the average person not understanding the difference between "median" and "average", however, I would expect the leader of the opposition to know the difference.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    IT and pharma undergraduates are being paid €0 per hour during their studies. Most courses now have a significant component of unpaid intern work. Much better off financially to be an apprentice.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Quoting myself here, and I'm not doing the full maths, but if 79% of properties for sale in Dublin today have asking prices greater than €300k then it is going to take economic policies that would make Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng look like Nobel prize winners to bring the average cost of a Dublin house to €300,000.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,846 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    If you think remote working will resolve the issues around decentralisation then you're very much mistaken.

    Many established workers don't want to move away from large urban areas where their kids are in school or college and they have all the clubs, amenities, social circles, etc. close by. Why would they want to move at all?

    There is also the issue of new entrants being taken on and not having someone to guide or help them with any issues. It won't take long for them to feel lost and they'll up sticks and move to another employer. This is a key reason why many employers are opposed to remote working.

    Then you'll have the same issues as before where once it us announced that a particular department will be moving staff to a town, property prices in that town jump up (ignoring the fact that the availability of properties equal to what the worker already owned in Dublin will be much lower).

    Naturally, some will be content being able to move but not enough to justify a widespread adoption of the policy.

    The last attempt at decentralisation was a crap proposal put forward by a FF/PD government to distract from a crap budget (and it did a fairly good job at that!).



  • Posts: 14,708 [Deleted User]


    Isn’t decentralisation with remote working, just remote working?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,498 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    No, because most public sector employees (AFAIK) have a mix of in-office and remote days. I don't think 100% remote work is a thing.

    So if you decentralise a department to Letterkenny, then everyone working there needs to be able to get to Letterkenny 3 days a week.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    I wouldn't.

    What's the point of people being pedantic about whether gobs1te politician X said whatever. I think the bigger picture is whether the price for the "average house" could indeed be lower if the politicians - whoever they might be - got their act together and addressed the problem properly with a medium-long term view of overall society.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    True, I think there's also the context of this article and common understanding of the term average.

    It's quite clear what the article was about and what SF intentions are, namely to make new houses available at circa 300k in Dublin.

    Any effort to catch up Mary Lou on her use of the term just looks very much like distraction to me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Just pointing out that it was tried in a different era.

    I don't think a switch to remote working will in itself allow decentralization.

    But remote working can take some of the pressure off everyone needing to live within, or so close to the major urban centers.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    If you read EOB plan, it does not mean that house prices in Dublin will fall to 300k.


    The plan implies that the State will sell new houses, with subsidies and restrictions on sale, to a subset of buyers, for about 300k.


    Does this mean that the prices of all other similar houses will fall to 300k? No.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,262 ✭✭✭✭Geuze



    The answer to this question is yes.

    If demand was restricted and/or the costs of supplying were cut, then, yes, the seliing prices of new houses can be lower.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,846 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    You appear to be contradicting yourself now as you're now distancing yourself from the idea of decentralisation.

    Anyhow, there is nothing stopping employers allowing remote working so if you think it is a panacea, why isn't it being more widely adopted (and given commuting traffic volumes it clearly is not being widely adopted!)?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I think you need to have a look back at the thread.

    I didn't propose decentralization.

    Nor did I propose remote working as a panacea. I suggested it might take some pressure off urban centers. That's pretty much the opposite of a panacea.

    We can have a discussion about what more can be done to support remote working, but I'd suggest that's getting off topic a little?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Well you're fairly narrowing the goalposts now talking about undergraduate degrees only!

    There's a plethora of incentives to retrain people in IT and pharma. Pretty much nothing for construction.

    Besides I'd suggest a fair degree of kids considering construction trades might not consider college as an alternative, at least that was the situation when I was at that age.

    When I started an apprenticeship, you could afford a room in a house share and a night out on the wages. That ain't happening now. So if you don't have financial support from parents it's likely you're only option will be a higher paid entry level job.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    And you got paid throughout your apprenticeship while college undergraduates got nothing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    The median price could get to 300K, but only if you build a shed tonne of house for 300K and under, which at the moment its pretty hard to do.

    Even the under 300K houses for sale right now in Dublin would need another 50-100K spent on them to bring them up to current standards based on todays costs.

    "Get their act together and address the problem properly" do you have suggestions?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,474 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    How do you restrict demand? Isnt this just another way of saying "subsidize"?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I've not denied this but also I could live independently on an apprentice salary at the time. That would be impossible at today's 8euro per hour minus college fees.

    There's no denying either that this government has incentivized people towards other careers through paid conversion courses and higher paid apprenticeships, but not done the same for construction trades.

    This was done because these industries, namely IT and pharma, were deemed strategically important. Yet construction, despite the obvious devastating outcomes of ignoring it, was not.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,846 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    You were the one who put forwards the possibility of remote qorking with decentralisation...

    If you didn't think it was a panacea, why even mention it? Nonetheless, it still doesn't detract from the fact that MLMD's idea of a 300k house in Dublin is clear and utter nonsense



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