Russia - threadbanned users in OP

The first question would be which part of Russia we're talking about. While Russia has dispersed its nuclear weapons throughout the country, its sheer size would mean that there are likely several provinces or republics without any nuclear weapons on their territory. Beyond that, I would imagine that there are likely no land-based nuclear weapons systems too close to the borders, or in the Caucasian republics either, for reasons of security. That leaves the region surrounding the Urals, the Russian Far East with the naval bases around Vladivostok & Petropavlovsk, as well as European Russia and the Kola Peninsula as areas of "concern".

Then, there's the status of the nukes in question. From all that I've read, we should expect the ballistic missile submarines of the Northern and Pacific Fleets to be in the same state of readiness as their western counterparts. They regularly received funding even in the dark years and have been the recipients of a bulk of funds allocated to the navy, to a degree that even the ever-present corruption has likely not led to major issues. This would in turn mean that commanders might be less inclined to throw in with any potential "warlords" for lack of a better term, while the comparatively better funding would allow missile boats to slip their lines with relative ease if things start getting dicey. For the purposes of this thought exercise, we should take those submarines out of the picture. The same goes for most of the navy's tactical nuclear weapons, as they will for the most part be mounted on torpedoes or as depth charges, with only a few ones able to be mounted on cruise missiles. These will be of little to no use in a civil war which will be mostly fought on land.

That leaves land-based ballistic missiles and air-dropped weapons, whether gravity bombs or cruise missiles. For most ballistic missiles, it will be a question of who can get their hands on the command posts of those missile units. The silo-based missiles themselves will likely be useless to anyone who captures the actual silo, as the launch command will come from one of these command posts. I'm not sure about Russia's road-mobile ICBMs, but I would imagine that they too will need some sort of go-code before they can actually launch. Also, ICBMs of all types have a minimum range as well as a maximum range, which means that these weapons might be of no use if the target is too close.

The main concern here will be air-dropped weapons and those meant for use on SRBMs, and here, maintenance comes into play. While Russia has always held their nukes in higher regard than western nations, much of the focus has been on ICBMs and SLBMs, with short-range or "tactical" weapons of secondary concern. As such, there is a genuine question as to how many of these short-ranged weapons are actually operational or can be made operational in relatively short order. I'd say that there are no more than a few hundred of these weapons within the Russian arsenal, and how many of those would be captured by any warlord prior to them being sabotaged is questionable.

Finally, there's the question of mindset. While the stereotypical wild-eyed general makes for great storytelling in Hollywood, most of those who are likely to rise to power in a second Russian Civil War will likely have a very well-developed sense of self-preservation. Even Putin is not completely balls-to-the-wall crazy, even though he clearly has issues. They will know that a use of nukes might get them a LOT of unwanted attention and as such, they will likely keep any nuclear weapons in their back pocket. In effect, these weapons will likely be most useful as a deterrent and/or a bargaining chip, just as they already are on an international scale.

What can I say?

Mar'inka has supposedly fallen today ,if they don't stabilisatise the current situation on the front lines they could lose more territory than they gains in the failed counter offensive

Most of those comments are probably from the many Russian bots.

Hungary is blackmailing the EU and the republicans are blackmailing USA.

What I said about adviika was they lost ground and despite the heavy losses the russians are inching forward...

If your claiming otherwise your clearly not actually following what's going on currently in Ukraine

I agree fully with you on this.

The Russians finance all of the world's malcontents and cranks. Regardless of what they represent, as long as they oppose the local stability, the Russian KGB will be in the background with their dirty money and kompromat and they will always find willing takers and useful idiots.

To a nation like Russia a victory does not necessarily have to be a victory for them. A victory is seeing a better and more propserous country suffer due to Russian interference.

I can picture UKr ‘losing ground ‘in certain places with a view to the Ru rushing in to occupy it and because the Ru would not have time to set up defence lines to secure it and they are in a confined area the UKr open up and the place becomes a Turkey shoot for the Ukr. .

I would imagine that Ukr is not too worried about losing some land as long as it is very successful in eliminating a lot of Ru armoury and personnel

is it not the case that the defender loses less than the attacker , in general

If Ukraine can get this funding from America and the EU I can see the tide of the war turning in their favour.

Russia are throwing everything at Ardivka and taking massive losses.

If Ukraine can push back with a lot of new kit heading into the winter where do Russia go from there?

Putin knows time is running out.

Indeed. But it does imply one important detail. They suggest that 90% of their pre-war Army were lost meaning that (if true), only 10% of their entire proffesional & trained armed forces remain active and are working with a much larger cohort of PMCs, activated reservists and poorly trained mobniks.

I'd be curious to see what the remaining pre-war 10% are actually used for. Has Putin held them in Russia to protect himself, or have they been doled out to the various divisions as command staff to ensure that at least some trained soldiers are working with the mobniks? Given the paniced response to the Wagner uprising a while back, I'd guess the latter has happened, and that beyond some token border guards, almost all of the army is in Ukraine.

Its pure nonsense. On the one hand he says Ukraine has nothing without western military aid, yet on the other hand he says they needed to demilitarise Ukraine. It's patently obvious from the early days of the war that Ukraine was no military threat to Russia and was very far from being on a war footing.

As for de-nazification? Apart from, as you say "empty rhetoric", is dislike of what you perceive a neighbour's internal politics to be now grounds for invading them? More nonsense.

I didn't catch his speech any mention of the 3-day war? Will his boys be home by Christmas?

Nah, no boys home for Christmas. There is no point for Putin personally to back down from his megalomaniac stance. The only hope for the war's end is the removal of Putin from power. Even stupid fúcks who call for "peace talks" must understand that for Putin this means total surrender of Ukraine and the genocide of Ukrainian people.

Hopefully, at some stage, Russian population gets tired of being treated like garbage and they rise up in a revolution as they have done before.