December 2023 Boards weather forecast contest _ enter to be fully involved in all 2024 contests

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2023 09:04AM #1

If you were perhaps thinking of joining in next year, this is the best month to get started because one component of the contest year is seasonal and that part begins with Dec 2023. The annual contest runs through the calendar year of 2024 ...

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website? ... and this includes 24th as well as 25th of December. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations with snow will bring in the "No" scores at 3.

Deadline for entries will be 0300h Friday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 4h late to 1500h Saturday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 9 points accumulated to that time).

Good luck !! (and welcome)

Tazio · 28-11-2023 10:22AM

Tazio _________ 4.0 _ 11.5_ -6.5 _ 075 _ 105 __ No

PS. Thank you again MT for fantastic input during the year; and for all the tutorials! Much appreciated.

SleetAndSnow · 28-11-2023 11:49AM

SleetAndSnow _________ 5.1 _ 13.1_ -6.2 _ 070 _ 90 __ No

May as well rejoin! Will try my best to keep up with it this year

sryanbruen · 28-11-2023 06:38PM

sryanbruen _________ 5.0 _ 14.8 _ -7.0 _ 110 _ 90 __ 8.2, 1.6, No

Gonzo · 28-11-2023 07:15PM

Gonzo _________ 5.2 _ 13.7_ -6.8 _ 096 _ 102 __8.9, 3.4, No

esposito · 28-11-2023 08:09PM

esposito _________ 5.9 _ 15.0_ -6.1_105 _ 95 __ 15.0, 5.3 No

WolfeEire · 29-11-2023 02:10AM

Wolfeire _________ 4.9 _ 13.5_-7.1_95_105_.5.2_-3.5_yes (ballyhaise)

Artane2002 · 29-11-2023 12:20PM

Artane2002 __________ 5.7 _ 14.6 _ -6.5 _ 95 _ 105 ___ 7.6 __ 2.8 __ No

pauldry · 29-11-2023 02:21PM

Pauldry_________ 5.9 _ 17.0 _ -6_ 99_ 104 ___ 4.6 __ 0.8 __ Yes (Knock)

Bsal · 29-11-2023 03:54PM

Bsal _________ 5.3 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 95 _ 99 __ 8.0, 3.0, No

dasa29 · 29-11-2023 09:03PM

Dasa29_________ 5.5 _ 15.0 _ -4.0_ 110_ 100 ___ 4.0 __ -2.0 __ Yes (Mullingar)

kindredspirit · 30-11-2023 09:54AM

Kindred Spirit ___ 5.8 ___ 13.9 ___ -5.8 ___ 90 ___ 115 ___ 9.9° ___ 2.5° ___ No.

waterways · 30-11-2023 04:52PM

waterways ___ 5.6 ___ 16.9 ___ -8.8 ___ 84 ___ 87 ___ 4.9 ___ 2.4 ___ Yes_ knockin' ... .

omicron · 30-11-2023 04:57PM

omicron _________ 5.1 _ 14.9_ -5.5 _ 090 _ 105 __10.7, 4.5, No

rameire · 30-11-2023 05:44PM

Rameire _________ 5.5 _ 11.1_ -5.9 _ 085 _ 90 __ 10.0, 2.0 No

sunflower3 · 30-11-2023 06:08PM

Sunflower3__________ 5.2 _ 15.1_ -5.9 _ 105 _ 90 ___ 8.5, 1.2, No

And just to add 'Go raibh maith agat' MT......or 'Thank you' in Canadian ☺️

Your contributions are appreciated all year, every year....👍

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2023 07:01PM

A personal message is on its way to several entrants with no temps for Dub(A) on 25th ... will give them a few days into Dec to respond. Edit into posts if possible.

m. t. cranium _______ 4.7 __ 15.0 __ -8.8 __ 110 __ 110 __ 7.2 _ 3.7 _ Yes (Cork)

NormaL ____________5.3 __ 15.5 __ -6.5 __ 100 __ 100 __ 8.2 _ 2.2 _ No

bazlers · 30-11-2023 07:41PM

Bazler __4.3__13.2__-9.4__90__112__6.2_-0.4

YES Oak Park.

SleetAndSnow · 30-11-2023 08:08PM

SleetAndSnow _________ 5.1 _ 13.1_ -6.2 _ 070 _ 90 __8.2___-1.2 No

Apologies received the PM but couldn't edit my original post @M.T. Cranium! Added the Dub(A) max and min!

Jpmarn · 30-11-2023 09:25PM

Jpmarn ____________4.6 __ 13.8 __ -7.5 __ 115 __ 110 __ 5.2 _ -1.5 _ Yes(Knock)

mr.stonewall · 30-11-2023 10:07PM

Mr stonewall____4.8__14.2__-7.2___98___115__5.9__1.6__no

DOCARCH · 30-11-2023 10:45PM

DOCARCH _________ 5.2 _ 14.4_ -4.1 _ 75 _ 102 __4.8___-1.6 No

Cornerstonelad · 30-11-2023 11:22PM

Cornerstonelad ____5___13.5____-6.5___120___85___9.2___4___No

Joe Public · 30-11-2023 11:25PM

Joe Public _________ 4.8 _ 14.4 _ -8.3 _ 96 _ 108 __ 6.3, -2.1, No

adam240610 · 30-11-2023 11:34PM

Adam240610___________5.3 __ 15.6 __ -7.5 __ 100 __ 100 __ 11.1 _ 3.1_ No

Tae laidir · 30-11-2023 11:43PM

Tae laidir ____________6.0 __ 14.6 __ -5.1 __ 121 __ 95 __ 9.1 _ 4.9 _ No

mrskinner · 30-11-2023 11:54PM

Skinner_____6.0_____15.4_____-5.0_____100_____111_____(7.9……1.9…..No.)

sdanseo · 01-12-2023 01:25AM

sdanseo _________ 4.6 _ 12.2_ -7.0 _ 112 _ 95 __ 12.2, 3.0, No

BLIZZARD7 · 01-12-2023 01:50AM

BLIZZARD7 ____________2.7__ 12.7 __ -13.3 __ 110 __ 120 __ 1.2 _ -7.2 _ Yes, Casement

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2023 04:07AM

Note to late posters: As is customary in situations of early verifying stats, any entries for min after 0600 today will be subject to 15/20 score cap if it appears that a late forecast is using a known value already verified. It would be in addition to late penalty. To avoid it, a forecaster can go for a lower value expected later, or activate a self-adjusting score by posting a less extreme value than is already reported. This also applies to any late edits of earlier posted values, but in those cases no late penalty is assessed, just the scoring cap.

Example: after it is posted on forum overnight low of -6.2, you predict -6.2 (at 1500 ), your late penalty is 3 and your min score will be 15/20 if -6.2 persists to end. If a later value is tied or lower, you score against that outcome. If a later value is within 0.5 and is not the min, your score is calculated against that value (your score will be better than 15/20 if so). If you post a value that is not quite accurate (e.g. -6.0), your score cap is still 15/20. If you post a value not within 0.5 of known value your score is calculated without reference to scoring cap.

One other clarification, any Dub (A) 25th predictions should be on the thread or available by 3rd 18z after which contest deadline protocols apply to that forecast only.

appledrop · 01-12-2023 06:28AM

Ah Jaysus I forgot. Appledrop 4.8____13.5 ___-6.9___85___110__8.2__2.0__No

December 2023 Boards weather forecast contest _ enter to be fully involved in all 2024 contests

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