December 2023 Boards weather forecast contest _ enter to be fully involved in all 2024 contests

John mac

john mac _________ 5.2 _ 14.6 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 98 __ 9.2, 2.6__No

dacogawa

Dacogawa____ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -7.7 _ 115 _ 89 __ 4.9_ -2.9, Yes (Mullingar)

Apologies about the lateness! And a Merry Christmas to all

200motels

200motels---------- 5.3 _ 13.5 _ -5.9 _ 109 _ 97 __ 9.2, 2.4 no

DOCARCH

-5.8c at Mount Dillon yesterday. Healthy kick off for low temp!

M.T. Cranium

After one day IMT is 0.3 C about six degrees below average.

Working on table of forecasts ... see notes on Nov contest scoring post, we are in for a very wild ending to contest, especially given range of possible DEC values.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for December 2023

FORECASTER ____________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Dub(A) 25 Dec, snow? 24/25 Dec

MrSkinner ______________ 6.0 _ 15.4 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 111 __ 7.9, 1.9 __ No

Tae laidir _______________ 6.0 _ 14.6 _ -5.1 _ 121 _ 095 __ 9.1, 4.9 __ No

Pauldry _________________5.9 _ 17.0 _ -6.0 _ 099 _ 104 __ 4.6, 0.8 __ Yes (Knock)

esposito ________________ 5.9 _ 15.0 _ -6.1 _ 105 _ 095 __15.0, 5.3 __ No

Kindred Spirit ____________5.8 _ 13.9 _ -5.8 _ 090 _ 115 __ 9.9° 2.5°__ No

Artane2002 ______________5.7 _ 14.6 _ -6.5 _ 095 _ 105 __ 7.6, 2.8 __ No

waterways ______________ 5.6 _ 16.9 _ -8.8 _ 084 _ 087 __ 4.9, 2.4 __ Yes _ knockin' ...

Dasa29 _________________5.5 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 4.0, -2.0 __ Yes (Mullingar)

Rameire ________________ 5.5 _ 11.1 _ -5.9 _ 085 _ 090 __10.0, 2.0 __ No

___ NormaL _____________5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 8.2, 2.2 __ No

Adam240610 ____________ 5.3 _ 15.6 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 100 __11.1, 3.1 __ No

Bsal ___________________ 5.3 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 099 __ 8.0, 3.0 __ No

200motels _____(-2) _____ 5.3 _ 13.5 _ -5.9 _ 109 _ 097 __ 9.2, 2.4 __ No

Sunflower3 ______________5.2 _ 15.1 _ -5.9 _ 105 _ 090 __ 8.5, 1.2 __ No

john mac _____(-1) ______ 5.2 _ 14.6 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 098 __ 9.2, 2.6 __ No

DOCARCH ______________ 5.2 _ 14.4 _ -4.1 _ 075 _ 102 __ 4.8, -1.6 __ No

Gonzo __________________5.2 _ 13.7 _ -6.8 _ 096 _ 102 __ 8.9, 3.4 __ No

___ Con Sensus __________ 5.2 _ 14.2 _ -6.5 _ 099 _ 102 __ 8.0, 2.0 __ No (22/31)

omicron ________________ 5.1 _ 14.9 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 105 __10.7, 4.5 __ No

Dacogawa ____(-1) _______5.1 _ 14.2 _ -7.7 _ 115 _ 089 __ 4.9, -2.9 __ Yes (Mullingar)

SleetAndSnow ___________ 5.1 _ 13.1 _ -6.2 _ 070 _ 090 __ 8.2, -1.2 __ No

sryanbruen ______________5.0 _ 14.8 _ -7.0 _ 110 _ 090 __ 8.2, 1.6 __ No

Cornerstonelad ___________5.0 _ 13.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 085 __ 9.2, 4.0 __ No

Wolfeire ________________ 4.9 _ 13.5 _ -7.1 _ 095 _ 105 __ 5.2, -3.5 __ Yes (Ballyhaise)

Joe Public _______________4.8 _ 14.4 _ -8.3 _ 096 _ 108 __ 6.3, -2.1 __ No

Mr stonewall _____________4.8 _ 14.2 _ -7.2 _ 098 _ 115 __ 5.9, 1.6 __ No

Appledrop __ (-1) ________ 4.8 _ 13.5 _ -6.9 _ 085 _ 110 __ 8.2, 2.0 __ No

M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.7 _ 15.0 _ -8.8 _ 110 _ 110 __ 7.2, 3.7 __ Yes (Cork)

Jpmarn _______________ 4.6 _ 13.8 _ -7.5 _ 115 _ 110 __ 5.2, -1.5 __ Yes (Knock)

sdanseo ________________ 4.6 _ 12.2 _ -7.0 _ 112 _ 095 __12.2, 3.0 __ No

Bazlers _________________4.3 _ 13.2 _ -9.4 _ 090 _ 112 __ 6.2, -0.4 __ Yes (Oak Park)

Tazio ___________________4.0 _ 11.5_ -6.5 _ 075 _ 105 __ tbd _ tbd __ No

BLIZZARD7 _____________ 2.7 _ 12.7 _ -13.3_ 110 _ 120 __1.2, -7.2 __ Yes (Casement)

===============================

31 forecasts to date, still need 25 Dec Dub (A) from Tazio, but as not in annual contest will insert a reasonable guess of 7, 1 given context (if Tazio doesn't post by 3rd).

Consensus for 31 forecasts is 16th ranked forecast.

Good luck and enjoy the festive season ... let's hope it snows a bit anyway (it has here but that's no surprise)

22 of 31 foresee a "green" Christmas, of 9 guesses for a location, it was Knock 3 times, 2 picked Mullingar and Cork, Casement, Oak Park and Ballyhaise each were in with a shout. (twice on the pipe if the answer is no ...)

M.T. Cranium

IMT was 0.9 after two days, today's estimated value is around 1.5 C bringing it to 1.1 after 3 days. (Dec 2010 was 0.4 for 31d)

Did you get a chance to look over the annual scoring? For best 10/12 it looks quite close and looking at forecasts above, top two sunflower3 and Artane2002 have a 22-point separation available, if either one was better situated on all five basic forecasts, and their bonus answers are likely to score within one, so overall they could alter current small margin by 22 points. Of course they could exchange points on different elements and see less of a shift. If you're top ten now, look at your own points separation in forecasts against either of them . In my case, it's around 30 points, and I would need just about all of those. (if not sure how to calculate, it's one point per 0.1 differentials on three temperature factors, then divide PRC differential by three, and SUN by five. Bonus you would need to consider the range and as their forecasts are fairly close to consensus, your separation can only be five on temps, and three on snow if you said yes.

M.T. Cranium

Tazio would like 8.0, 3.0 for missing Dub(A) 25 Dec temps. Con Sensus will be okay as is. (I calculated it from 7, 1 but ties meant it did not really move).

Looks like imt will rise steadily now but I do see occasional cold days in mix, may not soar too far up before levelling off around 5 C.

Tae laidir

Both Moore Park and Casement recorded 13.3 yesterday.

pauldry

Tomorrow the strong winds bring a 14c to the South id say.

Dunno why I picked 17c (I thought it was June), prob coz I've no chance so 17c or 100c no odds.

M.T. Cranium

After one week ...

IMT _ 3.4 C, 2.7 below average.

MAX _ 13.3

MIN _ -5.8

PRC _ 84% of average

SUN _ 109% of average

Tae laidir

Valentia recorded 13.5 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT _ 5.6 C, second week 7.6, 2.0 above average.

MAX _ 13.5

MIN _ -5.8

PRC _ est 120%, second week average 156% (Shannon not included in weekly ag report)

SUN _ est 100%, second week average 90% (ditto)

Recent guidance for 25th all over the place, latest (06z) GFS would say 9 C but colder on 24 Dec so a large range and possibly bits of snow; earlier guidance was wintry, could return as guidance wobbly.

Tae laidir

Newport Furnace equaled 13.5 yesterday.

DOCARCH

High of 14.1c at Moore Park yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT _ 7.0 C, third week 9.7, 4.2 deg above average.

MAX _ 14.1

MIN _ -5.8

PRC _ 100%, third week average 61% (The issue in week 2 with Shannon not included in weekly ag report did not repeat and I counter-checked est value by reviewing precip to date, in line with exactly 100% of expected for 21 of 31 days ... we are currently guaranteed about 66% plus whatever falls now to 31st ... if that is an average value for ten days, then we'll stay near 100%)

SUN _ est 90%, third week average 61% east sunny, west cloudy ... (this is still based on one approx value in week two)

outlook for 24-25 Dec, only a very slight chance of snow at Knock or Ballyhaise perhaps, Dub(A) 9-10 C, 3-5 C on 25 Dec (24h)

IMT could back off a bit after adding another 0.2-0.3 by 24 Dec, but looks set to end up near top of our forecast range. Other values not likely to change a lot.

M.T. Cranium

A roundup of our 25 Dec predictions, placed in order of max temps at Dub(A). We can assume max of at least 9 C as it is going to be close to 9 C at midnight. The min will probably be 24 hrs later at the following midnight.

FORECASTER ____________Dub(A) 25 Dec, snow? 24/25 Dec

esposito ________________15.0, 5.3 __ No

sdanseo ________________12.2, 3.0 __ No

Adam240610 ___________ 11.1, 3.1 __ No

omicron ________________10.7, 4.5 __ No

Rameire ________________10.0, 2.0 __ No

Kindred Spirit ____________9.9, 2.5 __ No

Cornerstonelad __________ 9.2, 4.0 __ No

john mac _____(-1) ______ 9.2, 2.6 __ No

200motels _____(-2) _____ 9.2, 2.4 __ No

Tae laidir _______________ 9.1, 4.9 __ No

Gonzo _________________ 8.9, 3.4 __ No

Sunflower3 _____________ 8.5, 1.2 __ No

___ NormaL ___________8.2, 2.2 __ No

Appledrop __ (-1) ________ 8.2, 2.0 __ No

sryanbruen ______________8.2, 1.6 __ No

SleetAndSnow ___________ 8.2, -1.2 __ No

Bsal ___________________ 8.0, 3.0 __ No

Tazio ___________________8.0, 3.0 ___ no

___ Con Sensus __________8.0, 2.0 __ No (22/31)

MrSkinner ______________ 7.9, 1.9 __ No

Artane2002 _____________ 7.6, 2.8 __ No

M.T. Cranium ____________ 7.2, 3.7 __ Yes (Cork)

Joe Public _______________6.3, -2.1 __ No

Bazlers _________________6.2, -0.4 __ Yes (Oak Park)

Mr stonewall ____________ 5.9, 1.6 __ No

Jpmarn _______________5.2, -1.5 __ Yes (Knock)

Wolfeire ________________5.2, -3.5 __ Yes (Ballyhaise)

waterways ______________4.9, 2.4 __ Yes _ knockin' ...

Dacogawa ____(-1) ______ 4.9, -2.9 __ Yes (Mullingar)

DOCARCH ______________ 4.8, -1.6 __ No

Pauldry _________________4.6, 0.8 __ Yes (Knock)

Dasa29 _________________4.0, -2.0 __ Yes (Mullingar)

BLIZZARD7 _____________ 1.2, -7.2 __ Yes (Casement)

===============================

As to snow, obviously none to at least mid-day Christmas Day, and probably none after that, but a faint hope for some at Knock possibly towards late evening. We may have to send Pauldry on a scouting mission. I will score these on 26th. You will get 1-5 points for each of the two, in equal groups (as far as possible given a few tied forecasts). Yes/no bonus is 3, if you chose "no" you get 2/3 for that and another 1 if your location is correct.

The IMT is now 7.4 C (est), likely its peak value but it will only come down slowly and will definitely be well above our top forecast of 6.0, so will score from minimum progression, preserving differentials ... probably giving 6.0 23/25 points and working down from it. All other elements are likely to be okay for raw scoring, especially if max got a boost earlier today (yesterday?) for me it is today for 8 more hrs. I hope you all have a very enjoyable Christmas and/or holiday season. Back on Tuesday afternoon probably with scoring for bonus.

Tae laidir

Moore Park did indeed boost it to 14.4.

Many Happy Returns to you and your gang!

M.T. Cranium

9.7, 6.5, no.

Scoring for Dec 2023 bonus

FORECASTER ____________Dub(A) 25 Dec, snow? 24/25 Dec

esposito ________________15.0, 5.3 __ No _____ _____ 1 5 3 ___ 9

sdanseo ________________12.2, 3.0 __ No _____ _____ 3 4 3 ___10

Adam240610 ___________ 11.1, 3.1 __ No _____ _____ 4 4 3 ___11

omicron ________________10.7, 4.5 __ No _____ _____ 5 5 3 ___13

Rameire ________________10.0, 2.0 __ No _____ _____5 3 3 ___11

Kindred Spirit ____________9.9, 2.5 __ No _____ _____ 5 4 3 ___12

Cornerstonelad __________ 9.2, 4.0 __ No _____ _____ 5 5 3 ___13

john mac _____(-1) ______ 9.2, 2.6 __ No _____ _____ 5 4 3 ___12

200motels _____(-2) _____ 9.2, 2.4 __ No _____ _____ 5 3 3 ___11

Tae laidir _______________ 9.1, 4.9 __ No _____ _____ 5 5 3 ___13

Gonzo _________________ 8.9, 3.4 __ No _____ _____ 5 5 3 ___13

Sunflower3 _____________ 8.5, 1.2 __ No _____ _____ 4 2 3 ___ 9

___ NormaL ___________8.2, 2.2 __ No _____ _____ 4 3 3 ___10

Appledrop __ (-1) ________8.2, 2.0 __ No _____ _____ 4 3 3 ___10

sryanbruen ______________8.2, 1.6 __ No _____ _____ 4 2 3 ___ 9

SleetAndSnow ___________ 8.2, -1.2 __ No _____ _____4 1 3 ___ 8

Bsal ___________________ 8.0, 3.0 __ No _____ _____ 4 4 3 ___11

Tazio ___________________8.0, 3.0 __ no _____ _____ 4 4 3 ___11

___ Con Sensus __________8.0, 2.0 __ No _____ _____ 4 3 3 ___10

MrSkinner ______________ 7.9, 1.9 __ No _____ _____ 4 3 3 ___10

Artane2002 _____________ 7.6, 2.8 __ No _____ _____ 3 4 3 ___10

M.T. Cranium ____________ 7.2, 3.7 __ Yes (Cork) _____3 5 0 ___ 8

Joe Public _______________6.3, -2.1 __ No _____ _____2 1 3 ___ 6

Bazlers _________________6.2, -0.4 __ Yes (Oak Park)_ 2 2 0 ___ 4

Mr stonewall ____________ 5.9, 1.6 __ No _____ _____ 2 2 3 ___ 7

Jpmarn _______________5.2, -1.5 __ Yes (Knock) ____2 1 0 ___ 3

Wolfeire ________________5.2, -3.5 __ Yes (Ballyhaise) _2 1 0 ___ 3

waterways ______________4.9, 2.4 __ Yes _ knockin' ... _1 3 0 ___ 4

Dacogawa ____(-1) ______ 4.9, -2.9 __ Yes (Mullingar) __1 1 0 ___ 2

DOCARCH ______________ 4.8, -1.6 __ No _____ _____ 1 1 3 ___ 5

Pauldry _________________4.6, 0.8 __ Yes (Knock) ____ 1 2 0 ___ 3

Dasa29 _________________4.0, -2.0 __ Yes (Mullingar) __1 1 0 ___ 2

BLIZZARD7 _____________ 1.2, -7.2 __ Yes (Casement)__1 1 0 ___ 2

===============================

Best forecasts:

max _ Kindred Spirit 9.9, Rameire 10.0, several 9.2

min _ esposito 5.3, tae laidir 4.9, omicron 4.5

lowest total error _ tae laidir 2.2, omicron and cornerstonelad 3.0

M.T. Cranium

It will be quite an interesting end to contest year ... just to review, I have retrieved the annual scoring update from the NOV contest thread.

The Boards Award is based on best 10/12 scores, and I have added in brackets where each forecaster stands in terms of guaranteed best 10, taking the higher of two excluded scores (which is now easier to spot, in bold italic), in case you don't surpass that score in Dec (then the second highest excluded score would go into your best 10/12).

The award for total score (M.T. Cranium Award) _ no you don't have to put up with me for a year LOL _ is easier to figure out, just add your DEC score to the current TOTAL.

I really have no idea how this is going to work out, very close at the top for best 10 out of 11 or 12, anyone coming from below Con Sensus is going to need to score 80 to 90 even if two leaders do not improve on second lowest score, and based on info below, anyone below current 6th place cannot catch the leaders.

Sunflower3 is probably on safer ground with the total score category, as the closest three all need at least 30 points extra in Dec.

This table will be edited to show final results in a few days from now.

Rank (prv) best 9/11__FORECASTER__ J__F__M__A__M__J__J__A__S__O__N__D__TOTAL_Rank NOV <

_ ___ ___ __ (best 10/11) _ _ __ ___ __ _ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ ____ __(OCT)>

01 (02) _643_(690)__ Sunflower3 ___47_69_39_84_72_55_73_73_73_67_77_xx__ 729 (1) _ (2)

02 (01) _641_(691)__ Artane2002* _ 50_71_78_---_71_66_68_90_72_68_57_xx__ 691 (t5) _ (4)

(2.7) (3.2)_621_(680)_ Con Sensus _ 65_74_58_64_66_68_60_79_68_77_59_xx__ 738 00.7 (00.7)

03 (04) _612_(656)__ M.T. Cranium _ 67_70_44_54_61_59_89_63_63_86_42_xx__ 698 (2) _ (1)

04 (03) _610_(653)__ tae laidir _____38_64_72_80_68_43_64_70_78_66_48_xx__ 691 (t5) _ (3)

05 (05) _601_(649)__ sryanbruen ___46_76_68_55_70_76_55_48_57_83_61_xx__ 695 (4) _ (5)

06 (09) _587_(640)__ Kindred Spirit _58_74_74_62_54_77_37_55_53_57_76_xx__ 677 (7) _ (8)

07 (06) _584_(640)__ adam240610 _ 61_61_65_57_62_72_67_57_56_74_65_xx__ 697 (3) _ (6)

08 (07) _573_(622)__ Jpmarn* ____ 61_49_50_51_---_69_70_75_75_65_57_xx__ 622 (16)_(t13)

t09 (11) _568_(615)__ john mac* __ 58_47_71_72_61_---_51_71_54_63_68_xx__ 615 (t18)_(21)

t09 (t12)_568_(602)__ MrSkinner ___25_69_34_53_72_65_47_69_58_65_70_xx__ 627 _(t13)_(t19)

11 (17) _566_(615)__ Cornerstonelad_49_61_25_58_56_49_56_76_68_64_77_xx__ 640 (11)_ (t13)

12 (10) _563_(615)__ Appledrop ____53_64_73_64_33_72_56_52_60_64_57_xx__ 648 (10) _ (9)

13 (08) _562_(610)__ DOCARCH ____77_67_69_48_51_58_45_55_57_78_50_xx__ 655 (8) _ (7)

t14 (t12)_559_(605)__ Gonzo ______46_69_52_58_60_44_84_52_65_58_61_xx__ 649 (9) _(10)

t14 (15)_ 559_(600)__ waterways ___52_27_41_76_53_59_68_65_67_54_65_xx__ 627 (t13)_(15)

16 (14) _549_(596)__ Rameire _____ 10_68_52_53_61_57_69_59_60_70_47_xx__ 606 (21)_(18)

(16.7)(18.1)_547 (589) NormaL ___67_44_76_77_42_38_65_60_46_47_65_xx__ 627 (13.0)(16.0)

17 (16) _546_(597)__ Dacogawa ____63_58_54_51_39_79_51_55_66_65_55_xx__ 636 (12)_(11)

18 (23) _545_(586)__ Joe Public ____46_48_53_63_42_54_41_71_85_41_83_xx__ 627 (t13)_(22)

19 (19) _536_(577)__ 200 motels____41_74_38_66_68_50_51_47_66_59_55_xx__ 615 (t18)_(17)

t20 (18) _526_(568)__ Bsal*________71_49_42_68_46_54_62_61_44_71_---_xx__ 568 (23)_(12)

t20 (21) _526_(574)__ Pauldry _____ 50_62_66_50_48_64_56_51_46_68_59_xx__ 620 (17)_(16)

22 (20) _524_(568)__ Dasa29 _____ 61_54_42_45_63_51_44_65_66_66_53_xx__ 610 (20)_(t19)

23 (24) _513_(558)__ Mr.stonewall _ 45_30_54_48_48_57_61_72_57_55_61_xx__ 588 (22)_(23)

24 (22) _510_(510)__ esposito** ___54_57_45_---_---_49_50_72_66_73_44_xx__ 510 (24)_(24)

================== above can still qualify for best 10/12 =====================

25 (25) _WolfeEire (4/11) _________ 76_47_59_52 _---_---_ ---_---_---_---_---_xx__ 234

26 (26) _ sdanseo (2/11) __________---_---_--_-- _ -- _ 59_---_---_---_ 86_ ---_xx__145

27 (27)_Rebelbrowser(1/11) _______ 78__---_--_--_-- _---_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 78

28 (28) _ JCX BXC (1/11) _________ --- _ ---_--_--_-- _ 65_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 65

29 (29) _Aah yes (1/11) ___________--- _ ---_--_-- 60 _---_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 60

30 (30) _ Danno (1/11) ___________ 58__---_--_--_-- _---_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 58

31 (31) _ Tazio (1/11) ____________ --- _ ---_--_--_-- _ 51_ ---_---_---_---_---_xx___ 51

___________________________________

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT _ 7.4 C, fourth week 8.8 C, 3.5 deg above average. Will finish 7.1 or 7.2 and requires minimum progression for scoring, assume 6.2 as basis.

MAX _ 14.4 _ probably set now

MIN _ -5.8 _ probably set now

PRC _ 126%, fourth week average 204% ... will likely finish near 130%

SUN _ est 80%, fourth week average 52% ... this will probably finish around 80%

BONUS _ already scored above. (9.7 6.5 no)

I may have a go at scoring on New Years Day with all but SUN more or less confirmed by then.

Scoring to date is viewable above also.

M.T. Cranium

This is an early look at scoring for December, and it's very close -- all depends on whether my estimates are accurate or not.

I won't fill out the annual scoring table with these early scores, as they could change a bit.

Will place these in scoring order around 1st of January after reviewing the estimates.

Preliminary scoring for December 2023

FORECASTER ____________IMT_MAX_MIN _PRC _SUN __ Dub(A) 25 Dec, snow? 24/25 Dec

___ Est values __________ 7.2_ 14.4_-5.8_124_080__ 9.7 6.5 no __ TOTAL SCORE

MrSkinner ______________ 23*_ 10 _ 12 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 68

Tae laidir _______________ 23*_ 18 _ 13 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 13 _____ 88

Pauldry _________________22*_ 00 _ 18 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 03 _____ 55

esposito ________________22*_ 14 _ 17 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 78

Kindred Spirit ____________21*_ 15 _ 20 _ 04 _ 03 ___ 12 _____ 75

Artane2002 _____________ 20*_ 18 _ 13 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 10 _____ 71

waterways ______________ 19*_ 00 _ 00 _ 02 _ 09 ___ 04 _____ 34

Dasa29 _________________18*_ 14 _ 02 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 02 _____ 52

Rameire ________________ 18*_ 00 _ 19 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 11 _____ 58

___ NormaL ___________ 17*_ 09 _ 13 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 62

Adam240610 ____________ 16*_ 08 _ 03 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 11 _____ 51

Bsal ___________________ 16*_ 16 _ 18 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 11 _____ 72

200motels _____(-2) ______16*_ 11 _ 19 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 11 _74-2=72

Sunflower3 ______________15*_ 13 _ 19 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 09 _____ 73

john mac _____(-1) _______15*_ 18 _ 13 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 12 _74-1=73

DOCARCH _______________15*_ 20 _ 03 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 05 _____ 49

Gonzo __________________15*_ 13 _ 10 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 13 _____ 63

___ Con Sensus __________15*_ 18 _ 13 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 69

omicron ________________ 14*_ 15 _ 17 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 13 _____ 68

Dacogawa ____(-1) _______14*_ 18 _ 01 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 02 _55-1=54

SleetAndSnow ___________ 14*_ 07 _ 16 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 08 _____ 53

sryanbruen ______________13*_ 16 _ 08 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 09 _____ 64

Cornerstonelad ___________13*_ 11 _ 13 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 13 _____ 73

Wolfeire ________________ 12*_ 11 _ 07 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 03 _____ 43

Joe Public _______________ 11*_ 20 _ 00 _ 06 _ 04 ___ 06 _____ 47

Mr stonewall _____________11*_ 18 _ 06 _ 06 _ 03 ___ 07 _____ 51

Appledrop __ (-1) ________ 11*_ 11 _ 09 _ 02 _ 04 ___ 10 _47-1=46

M.T. Cranium ____________ 10*_ 14 _ 00 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 08 _____ 46

Jpmarn _______________ 09*_ 14 _ 03 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 03 _____ 45

sdanseo ________________ 09*_ 00 _ 08 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 10 _____ 45

Bazlers _________________06*_ 08 _ 00 _ 04 _ 04 ___ 04 _____ 26

Tazio ___________________03*_ 00_ 13 _ 00 _ 05 ___ 11 _____ 32

BLIZZARD7 ______________00 _ 03 _ 00 _ 10 _ 02 ___ 02 _____ 17

===============================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ____________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Dub(A) 25 Dec, snow? 24/25 Dec

MrSkinner ______________ 6.0 _ 15.4 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 111 __ 7.9, 1.9 __ No

Tae laidir _______________ 6.0 _ 14.6 _ -5.1 _ 121 _ 095 __ 9.1, 4.9 __ No

Pauldry _________________5.9 _ 17.0 _ -6.0 _ 099 _ 104 __ 4.6, 0.8 __ Yes (Knock)

esposito ________________ 5.9 _ 15.0 _ -6.1 _ 105 _ 095 __15.0, 5.3 __ No

Kindred Spirit ____________5.8 _ 13.9 _ -5.8 _ 090 _ 115 __ 9.9° 2.5°__ No

Artane2002 ______________5.7 _ 14.6 _ -6.5 _ 095 _ 105 __ 7.6, 2.8 __ No

waterways ______________ 5.6 _ 16.9 _ -8.8 _ 084 _ 087 __ 4.9, 2.4 __ Yes _ knockin' ...

Dasa29 _________________5.5 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 4.0, -2.0 __ Yes (Mullingar)

Rameire ________________ 5.5 _ 11.1 _ -5.9 _ 085 _ 090 __10.0, 2.0 __ No

___ NormaL _____________5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 8.2, 2.2 __ No

Adam240610 ____________ 5.3 _ 15.6 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 100 __11.1, 3.1 __ No

Bsal ___________________ 5.3 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 099 __ 8.0, 3.0 __ No

200motels _____(-2) _____ 5.3 _ 13.5 _ -5.9 _ 109 _ 097 __ 9.2, 2.4 __ No

Sunflower3 ______________5.2 _ 15.1 _ -5.9 _ 105 _ 090 __ 8.5, 1.2 __ No

john mac _____(-1) ______ 5.2 _ 14.6 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 098 __ 9.2, 2.6 __ No

DOCARCH ______________ 5.2 _ 14.4 _ -4.1 _ 075 _ 102 __ 4.8, -1.6 __ No

Gonzo __________________5.2 _ 13.7 _ -6.8 _ 096 _ 102 __ 8.9, 3.4 __ No

___ Con Sensus __________ 5.2 _ 14.2 _ -6.5 _ 099 _ 102 __ 8.0, 2.0 __ No (22/31)

omicron ________________ 5.1 _ 14.9 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 105 __10.7, 4.5 __ No

Dacogawa ____(-1) _______5.1 _ 14.2 _ -7.7 _ 115 _ 089 __ 4.9, -2.9 __ Yes (Mullingar)

SleetAndSnow ___________ 5.1 _ 13.1 _ -6.2 _ 070 _ 090 __ 8.2, -1.2 __ No

sryanbruen ______________5.0 _ 14.8 _ -7.0 _ 110 _ 090 __ 8.2, 1.6 __ No

Cornerstonelad ___________5.0 _ 13.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 085 __ 9.2, 4.0 __ No

Wolfeire ________________ 4.9 _ 13.5 _ -7.1 _ 095 _ 105 __ 5.2, -3.5 __ Yes (Ballyhaise)

Joe Public _______________4.8 _ 14.4 _ -8.3 _ 096 _ 108 __ 6.3, -2.1 __ No

Mr stonewall _____________4.8 _ 14.2 _ -7.2 _ 098 _ 115 __ 5.9, 1.6 __ No

Appledrop __ (-1) ________ 4.8 _ 13.5 _ -6.9 _ 085 _ 110 __ 8.2, 2.0 __ No

M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.7 _ 15.0 _ -8.8 _ 110 _ 110 __ 7.2, 3.7 __ Yes (Cork)

Jpmarn _______________ 4.6 _ 13.8 _ -7.5 _ 115 _ 110 __ 5.2, -1.5 __ Yes (Knock)

sdanseo ________________ 4.6 _ 12.2 _ -7.0 _ 112 _ 095 __12.2, 3.0 __ No

Bazlers _________________4.3 _ 13.2 _ -9.4 _ 090 _ 112 __ 6.2, -0.4 __ Yes (Oak Park)

Tazio ___________________4.0 _ 11.5_ -6.5 _ 075 _ 105 __ 8.0, 3.0 ___ No

BLIZZARD7 _____________ 2.7 _ 12.7 _ -13.3_ 110 _ 120 __1.2, -7.2 __ Yes (Casement)

===============================

M.T. Cranium

Looks like it's IMT 7.3 and PRC 139% as final values (lots of rain last few days), but the IMT was already boosted, and I was prepared to boost PRC if it ended up above the level of 124%, as it did -- basically everyone has received (now) 11 points on the IMT and 5 points on PRC. SUN did not add anything of note last two days of Dec so the value used there will likely be okay or even a bit over (it was already below all forecasts). So I think the scoring will probably not change on 3rd or 4th whenever the folks produce the summary. I won't work on annual scoring until I feel sure these DEC scores are okay, as you can see, it will be close at the top of the table. Both sunflower3 and Artane2002 have had a great year and tae laidir really made them earn top spots with a score that would have toppled any less worthy final entries. I sort of slunk out the back door into an alley, but hey, nobody's perfect right?

So I am not sure when annual scoring will appear, but it could be a few days yet.

M.T. Cranium

For now, work on scoring ... to be confirmed at some point tomorrow, I trust ... not expecting to make any significant adjustments.

Will leave any commentary until I can confirm Dec scoring ...

(3 Jan 1100 ... adjusting SUN scores, rest of data confirmed)

Scoring for December 2023

FORECASTER ____________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Dub(A) 25 Dec, snow? 24/25 Dec

___ Confirmed values ____ 7.3_ 14.4_-5.8_139_090__ 9.7 6.5 no __ TOTAL SCORE

Tae laidir _______________ 23*_ 18 _ 13 _ 14*_ 09 ___ 13 _____ 90

esposito ________________22*_ 14 _ 17 _ 09*_ 09 ___ 09 _____ 80

Kindred Spirit ____________21*_ 15 _ 20 _ 04*_ 05 ___ 12 _____ 77

Sunflower3 ______________15*_ 13 _ 19 _ 09*_ 10 ___ 09 _____ 75

john mac _____(-1) _______15*_ 18 _ 13 _ 10*_ 08 ___ 12 _76-1=75

Bsal ___________________ 16*_ 16 _ 18 _ 05*_ 08 ___ 11 _____ 74

200motels _____(-2) ______16*_ 11 _ 19 _ 10*_ 09 ___ 11 _76-2=74

Cornerstonelad ___________13*_ 11 _ 13 _ 14*_ 09 ___ 13 _____ 73

Artane2002 _____________ 20*_ 18 _ 13 _ 05*_ 07 ___ 10 _____ 73

___ Con Sensus __________15*_ 18 _ 13 _ 07*_ 08 ___ 10 _____ 71

MrSkinner ______________ 23*_ 10 _ 12 _ 07*_ 08 ___ 10 _____ 70

omicron ________________ 14*_ 15 _ 17 _ 04*_ 07 ___ 13 _____ 70

sryanbruen ______________13*_ 16 _ 08 _ 10*_ 10 ___ 09 _____ 66

Gonzo __________________15*_ 13 _ 10 _ 06*_ 08 ___ 13 _____ 65

___ NormaL ___________ 17*_ 09 _ 13 _ 07*_ 08 ___ 10 _____ 64

Rameire ________________18*_ 00 _ 19 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 11 _____ 60

Pauldry _________________22*_ 00 _ 18 _ 07*_ 07 ___ 03 _____ 57

Dacogawa ____(-1) _______14*_ 18 _ 01 _ 12*_ 10 ___ 02 _57-1=56

SleetAndSnow ___________ 14*_ 07 _ 16 _ 01*_ 10 ___ 08 _____ 56

Dasa29 _________________18*_ 14 _ 02 _ 10*_ 08 ___ 02 _____ 54

Adam240610 ____________ 16*_ 08 _ 03 _ 07*_ 08 ___ 11 _____ 53

Mr stonewall _____________11*_ 18 _ 06 _ 06*_ 05 ___ 07 _____ 53

DOCARCH _______________15*_ 20 _ 03 _ 01*_ 08 ___ 05 _____ 52

Joe Public _______________ 11*_ 20 _ 00 _ 06*_ 06 ___ 06 _____ 49

Appledrop __ (-1) ________ 11*_ 11 _ 09 _ 02*_ 06 ___ 10 _49-1=48

M.T. Cranium ____________ 10*_ 14 _ 00 _ 10*_ 06 ___ 08 _____ 48

Jpmarn _______________ 09*_ 14 _ 03 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 03 _____ 47

sdanseo ________________ 09*_ 00 _ 08 _ 11*_ 09 ___ 10 _____ 47

Wolfeire ________________ 12*_ 11 _ 07 _ 05*_ 07 ___ 03 _____ 45

waterways ______________ 19*_ 00 _ 00 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 04 _____ 35

Tazio ___________________03*_ 00 _ 13 _ 01*_ 07 ___ 11 _____ 35

Bazlers _________________06*_ 08 _ 00 _ 04*_ 06 ___ 04 _____ 28

BLIZZARD7 ______________00 _ 03 _ 00 _ 10*_ 04 ___ 02 _____ 19

________________________

_ * __ scored by minimum progression (from 6.2 and 124%)

= = ================================================ = =

<<< Annual scoring report _ 2023 >>>

Rank (prv) ____ FORECASTER__ J__F__M__A__M__J__J__A__S__O__N__D__TOTAL_Rank

_ ___ (best 10/12) _ _ __ _____J__F__M__A__M__J__J__A__S__O__N__D _(all)_DEC_(NOV)

01 (01) _718__ Sunflower3 ___47_69_39_84_72_55_73_73_73_67_77_75__ 804 (1) _ (1)

02 (02) _712__ Artane2002* _ 50_71_78_---_71_66_68_90_72_68_57_71__ 762 (3) _ (t5)

03 (04) _700___ tae laidir ____38_64_72_80_68_43_64_70_78_66_48_90__ 781 (2) _ (t5)

(3.3)(2.7)_692_ Con Sensus __ 65_74_58_64_66_68_60_79_68_77_59_71__ 809 00.8 (00.7)

04 (05) _667___ sryanbruen ___46_76_68_55_70_76_55_48_57_83_61_66__ 761 (4) _ (4)

05 (06) _664___ Kindred Spirit _58_74_74_62_54_77_37_55_53_57_76_77__ 754 (5) _ (7)

06 (03) _660___ M.T. Cranium _ 67_70_44_54_61_59_89_63_63_86_42_48__ 746 (7) _ (2)

07 (t09)_643___ john mac* __ 58_47_71_72_61_---_51_71_54_63_68_75__ 690 (14)_(t18)

08 (07)_641___ adam240610 _ 61_61_65_57_62_72_67_57_56_74_65_53__ 750 (6) _ (3)

09 (11) _639___ Cornerstonelad_49_61_25_58_56_49_56_76_68_64_77_73__713 (9)_ (11)

10 (t09)_638___ MrSkinner ___ 25_69_34_53_72_65_47_69_58_65_70_70__ 697 (11)_(t13)

11 (t14)_624___ Gonzo ______ 46_69_52_58_60_44_84_52_65_58_61_65__ 714 (8) _ (9)

12 (08)_622___ Jpmarn* ____ 61_49_50_51_---_69_70_75_75_65_57_47__ 669 (18)_(16)

13 (12) _615___ Appledrop ____53_64_73_64_33_72_56_52_60_64_57_48__ 696 (12)_(10)

14 (13) _614___ DOCARCH ____77_67_69_48_51_58_45_55_57_78_50_52__ 707 (10) _(8)

(14.8)(18.1)_611 NormaL ___67_44_76_77_42_38_65_60_46_47_65_64__ 691 (13.5)(13.0)

15 (19) _610___ 200 motels___41_74_38_66_68_50_51_47_66_59_55_74__ 689 (15)_(t18)

16 (16) _609___ Rameire _____10_68_52_53_61_57_69_59_60_70_47_60__ 666 (19)_(21)

17 (17) _ 602___Dacogawa ___ 63_58_54_51_39_79_51_55_66_65_55_56__ 692 (13)_(12)

t18(t14)_ 600__ waterways ___ 52_27_41_76_53_59_68_65_67_54_65_35__ 662 (21)_(t13)

t18(t20) _600__ Bsal*________71_49_42_68_46_54_62_61_44_71_---_74__ 642 (22)_(23)

20 (18) _594__ Joe Public ____ 46_48_53_63_42_54_41_71_85_41_83_49__ 676 (17)_(t13)

21 (24) _590 __ esposito** ___54_57_45_---_---_49_50_72_66_73_44_80__ 590 (24)_(24)

22 (t20) _583__ Pauldry _____ 50_62_66_50_48_64_56_51_46_68_59_57__ 677 (16)_(17)

23 (22) _578__ Dasa29 ______61_54_42_45_63_51_44_65_66_66_53_54__ 664 (20)_(20)

24 (23) _566__ Mr.stonewall __ 45_30_54_48_48_57_61_72_57_55_61_53__ 641 (23)_(22)

================== = = = = = = = = = = = = =====================

25 (25) _WolfeEire (5/12) _____ 76_47_59_52 _---_---_ ---_---_---_---_---_45__ 279

26 (26) _ sdanseo (3/12) ______---_---_--_-- _ -- _ 59_---_---_---_ 86_ ---_47__192

27 (31) _ Tazio (2/12) ________ --- _ ---_--_--_-- _ 51_ ---_---_---_---_---_35___ 86

28 (27)_ Rebelbrowser(1/12) ___ 78__---_--_--_-- _---_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 78

29 (---) _omicron (1/12) _______ --- _ ---_--_-- _---_---_ ---_---_---_---_---_70___ 70

30 (28) _ JCX BXC (1/12) _____ --- _ ---_--_--_-- _ 65_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 65

31 (29) _Aah yes (1/12) _______--- _ ---_--_-- 60 _---_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 60

32 (30) _ Danno (1/12) _______ 58__---_--_--_-- _---_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 58

33 (---) _ SleetAndSnow (1/12) --- _ ---_--_-- _---_---_ ---_---_---_---_---_56___ 56

34 (---) _ Bazlers (1/12) ______--- _ ---_--_-- _---_---_ ---_---_---_---_---_28___ 28

35 (---) _ BLIZZARD7 (1/12) ___--- _ ---_--_--_---_---_ ---_---_---_---_---_19___ 19

___________________________________

___________________________________

<<< Category scoring for 2023 >>>

FORECASTER ____ IMT _MAX _MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS __ TOTAL (total before late pens)

Max Possible _____300 _240 _240 _180 _120 __120 ____1200

_ Con Sensus ____ 223 _159 _136 _104 _ 97 __ 90 ____ 809

Sunflower3 ______224 _144 _153 _105 _93 __ 85 ____ 804

Tae laidir_________252 _111 _147 _ 90 _ 93 __ 88 ____ 781

Artane2002(11/12)_214 _149 _147 _ 91 _ 85 __ 80 ____ 764 (766)

sryanbruen ______ 213 _144 _133 _107 _ 91 __ 78 ____ 761 (766)

Kindred Spirit _____212 _139 _142 _ 92 _ 80 __ 89 ____ 754

adam240610______227 _128 _122 _101 _ 87 __ 88 ____ 750 (753)

M.T. Cranium _____ 225 _100 _125 _110 _ 98__ 88 ____ 746

Gonzo ___________215 _124 _108 _ 98 _ 87 __ 87 ____ 714 (719)

Cornerstonelad ____213 _145 _113 _101 _ 80 __ 78 ____ 713 (730)

DOCARCH _______ 182 _146 _110 _114 _90__ 65 ____ 707

MrSkinner ________227 _117 _100 _ 93 _ 82 __ 80 ____ 697 (699)

Appledrop ________217 _ 82 _131 _100 _ 95 __ 72 ____ 696 (697)

Dacogawa _______ 228 _119 _101 _ 84 _ 93 __ 68 ____ 692 (693)

_ NormaL _______163 _123 _111 _114 _89 __ 91 ____ 691

john mac (11/12) __188 _123 _109 _109 _ 83 __81 ____ 690 (693)

200 motels _______213 _126 _114 _ 98 _ 87 __ 67 ____ 689 (705)

Pauldry __________218 _103 _103 _106 _ 88 __ 59 ____ 677

Joe Public ________209 _139 _ 89 _104 _ 86 __ 53 ____ 676 (680) 

Jpmarn __(11/12)__190 _107 _125 _100 _ 80 __ 67 ____669

Rameire _________ 210 _121 _114 _ 83 _ 85 __ 83 ____ 666 (696)

Dasa29 __________201 _ 87 _105 _107 _ 89 __ 75 ____ 664

waterways _______ 200 _128 _ 77 _ 84 _ 96 __ 77 ____ 662

Bsal (11/12) _____ 187 _117 _ 89 _108 _ 76 __ 75 ____ 642 (652)

Mr.stonewall ______209 _107 _118 _ 53 _ 77 __83 ____ 641 (647)

esposito _ (10/12) _ 197 _123 _ 62 _ 73 _ 74 __ 61 ____ 588 (590)

WolfeEire (5/12) ___ 73 _ 46 _ 56 _ 48 _ 31 __ 25 ____ 279

sdanseo ___(3/12) _ 44 _ 34 _ 42 _ 22 _ 26 __ 24 _____192

Tazio _____ (2/12) _ 24 _ 00 _ 30 _ 08 _ 11 __ 13 _____ 86

Rebelbrowser (1/12)_15 _ 16 _ 18 _ 12 _ 08 __ 09 _____ 78

omicron (1/12) ____ 14 _ 15 _ 17 _ 04 _ 07 __ 13 _____ 70

JCX BXC ___ (1/12)_ 25 _ 12 _ 16 _ 00 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 65

aah yes____(1/12)__17 _ 12 _ 04 _ 13 _ 10 __ 07 _____ 60 (63)

Danno ____ (1/12) _ 13 _ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 __ 08 _____ 58

SleetAndSnow (1/12) 14 _ 07 _ 16 _ 01 _ 10 __ 08 _____ 56

Bazlers (1/12) _____ 06 _ 08 _ 00 _ 04 _ 06 __ 04 _____ 28

BLIZZARD7 (1/12) __00 _ 03 _ 00 _ 10 _ 04 __ 02 _____ 19

___________________________________

In category scoring (Jan to Nov totals), high score is bold, 2nd is bold italic and 3rd plain italic.

(ranks are given to top three forecasters, regardless of position of NormaL or Con Sensus as noted below)

IMT _ three top ranks -- tie for third place. Top score tae laidir.

MAX three top ranks -- no ties. Con Sensus would be first. Top score Artane2002

MIN _ three top ranks -- two tied for second, no third place awarded. Top score sunflower3

PRC _ three top ranks -- no ties. Normal would be tied first. Top score DOCARCH

SUN _ three top ranks -- no ties. Con Sensus would be second. Top score M.T. Cranium

BONUS _ Three forecasters tied second, no third place awarded. Con Sensus and Normal both one, two points ahead of first. Top score Kindred Spirit

Order in category scoring is same as determined by total scores in annual scoring summary above this table.

Not all have any late penalties, but those who do will have their contest score (after penalties) in the TOTAL column and the total before penalties (the sum of the category scores) in brackets and italic font, after their contest score.

============ ========================= ============

=======[][][] <<<<< Contest Archives Section >>>>>[][][]=======

• Best monthly forecasts (all scores 83+ appear here) 2010 to 2023
• 
  
• FORECASTER _______Month _____ Score ___ Rank for this forecaster
• 
  
• John mac _________ 06 2013 _____ 94 ____ 1
• BLIZZARD7 ________05 2018 _____ 92 ____ 1
• Con Sensus ________03 2014 _____ 92 ____ 1
• Artane2002 ________07 2019 _____ 91 ____ 1
• Con Sensus ________11 2017 _____ 91 ____ 2
• tae laidir __________12 2023 _____ 90 ____ 1
• Artane2002 ________08 2023 _____ 90 ____ 2
• mickger844posts ___ 12 2019 _____ 90 _____t1
• dacogawa _________07 2017 _____ 90 ____ 1
• NormaL ___________12 2017 _____ 90 ____ 1
• mickger844posts ___ 02 2015 _____ 90 _____t1
• Schadenfreudia _____11 2015 _____ 90 ____ 1
• M.T. Cranium _______07 2023 _____ 89 ____ 1
• Appledrop _________06 2022 _____ 89 ____ 1
• Pauldry ___________03 2018 _____ 89 ____ 1
• Western Storm _____11 2017 _____ 89 ____ 1
• Lumi, dacogawa and_(03 2016) ____89, 89 __ 1,2(dac)
• ___ mickger844posts_03 2016 _____89 _____3
• sunflower3 ________ 12 2016 _____ 89 ____ 1
• Bsal ______________12 2021 _____ 88 ____ 1
• sryanbruen ________ 04 2020 _____ 88 ____ 1
• MrSkinner _________ 12 2019 _____ 88 ____ 1
• Rameire ___________07 2018 _____ 88 ____ 1
• M.T. Cranium _______11 2016 _____ 88 _____2
• Kindred spirit _______12 2014 _____ 88 ____ 1
• Strasser ___________12 2011 _____ 88 ____ 1
• MrSkinner, Kindred Sp 12 2021 _____ 87 ____ 2, 2
• waterways _________12 2019 _____ 87 _____1
• Kindred spirit _______11 2018 _____ 87 ____ 3
• Joe Public __________05 2017 _____ 87 ____ 1
• Sponge Bob ________11 2012 _____ 87 ____ 1
• M.T. Cranium _______10 2023 _____ 86 ____ 3
• sdanseo ___________10 2023 _____ 86 ____ 1
• Adam240610 _______12 2022 _____ 86 ____ 1
• MrSkinner __________01 2020 _____86 ____ 3
• JPmarn ____________01 2020 _____86 ____ 1
• M.T. Cranium _______05 2018 _____ 86 ____t4
• Tae laidir __________ 01 2016 _____ 86 ____ 2
• M.T. Cranium _______04 2015 _____ 86 ____t4
• Joe Public __________09 2023 _____ 85 ____2
• dasa29 ____________03 2019 _____ 85 ____1
• Pauldry ___________ 07 2019 _____ 85 ____ 2
• 200motels _________05 2018 _____ 85 ____ 1
• sryanbruen ________ 07 2018 _____ 85 ____ 2
• NormaL ___________ 08 2018 _____ 85 ____ 2
• MrSkinner _________ 03 2015 _____ 85 ____ 4
• Tae laidir __________ 02 2014 _____ 85 ____ 3
• omicron ___________03 2014 _____ 85 _____1
• Gonzo ____________ 07 2023 _____ 84 _____1t
• sunflower3 ________ 04 2023 _____ 84 _____ 2
• dasa29, Artane 2002_ 11 2020 _____ 84 ____ 1, 3 (Artane2002)
• Gonzo ____________ 07 2020 _____ 84 _____1t
• waterways _________06 2019 _____ 84 _____2
• rikand ____________ 01 2015 _____ 84 _____1
• JPmarn ___________ 12 2013 _____ 84 _____2
• Con Sensus ________11 2012 _____ 84 ____ 3
• Tae laidir __________12 2011 _____ 84 ____ 4
• Joe Public _________ 11 2023 _____ 83 ____ 3t
• Sryanbruen ________10 2023 _____ 83 ____ 3t
• Sryanbruen ________ 07 2022 _____83 ____ 3t
• Gonzo ____________03 2021 _____ 83 ____ 2
• Tae laidir ________ 03,07 2019 ____83 _____4t
• John mac _________ 06 2019 _____ 83 ____ 2
• dasa29 ___________ 03 2018 _____ 83 ____ 2
• Rougies ___________11 2017 _____ 83 ____ 1
• John mac _________ 10 2016 _____ 83 ____ 3
• DOCARCH _________10 2015 _____ 83 ____ 1t
• Con Sensus ________04 2014 _____ 83 ____ 4
• DOCARCH _________ 10 2013 _____83 ____ 1t
• Joe Public _________ 04 2010 _____83 _____3t
• 
  
• note: 82 Dec 2018 for Adam240610 noted before the above 87 in Dec 2022.
• 
  
• also updating this table of all-time performances from 2020 results (partial annual participation not used as it would distort full-time averages from earlier) ... and note, this table has used only "best 10/12" ranks which tend to discount differences based on number of contests between the qualifying 10 and 12 limits.

• FORECASTER ___ YEARS (with 10-12 contests) ___ Average Rank to 2023 (2022)
• 
  
• Forecasters active now _ Average ranks (best 10 of 12)
• 
  
• _________________ years __________________ avg _ (after 2022)
• 
  
• Artane2002 _________ 5 ____________________3.8 ___ 4.3 (2, 4, 3, 8, 2)
• 
  
• ___ Con Sensus _____ 14 ___________________ 3.8 ___ 3.9
• 
  
• Tae laidir ___________13 ___________________ 6.5 ___ 6.8
• Appledrop __________ 3 ____________________6.7 ___ 3.5
• MrSkinner __________ 9 ____________________7.0 ___ 6.6
• Sunflower3 _________ 9 ____________________7.1 ___ 7.9
• sryanbruen _________ 8 ____________________7.9 ___ 8.4
• JPmarn __________ 11__________________ 8.7 ___ 8.5
• Cornerstonelad ______ 1 ____________________9.0 ___ ---
• Pauldry ____________13____________________ 9.7 ___ 8.7
• kindred spirit _______ 15 ____________________9.9 __ 10.2
• DOCARCH _________ 15 ____________________10.1 ___ 9.9
• bsal ______________ 11 ____________________10.7 ___ 9.9
• Adam240610 _______ 5 ____________________ 11.8 __ 12.8
• MrStonewall ________ 3 ____________________ 12.0 ___ 6.0
• Gonzo _____________ 3 ____________________ 12.3 __ 13.0
• John mac __________14 ____________________ 12.8 __ 13.3
• Rameire (2011-19,23)_10____________________ 13.5 __ 13.2 (in 2019)
• dacogawa _________ 13 ____________________ 13.6 __ 13.5
• M.T. Cranium _______15 ____________________ 13.7 __ 14.1
• waterways _________13 ____________________ 14.5 __ 14.2
• dasa29 ___________ 15 ____________________ 16.0 __ 15.5
• Joe Public _________ 14 ____________________ 17.0 __ 16.7
• 200motels ________ 15 _____________________17.2 __ 17.4
• BLIZZARD7 ________ 3*_____________________20.3 __ 20.0
• * did not change stats. 2021-23 part-time entrant only
• 
  
• 
  
• Legends of the past
• 
  
• Jerry Seinfeld (2010-13)____4 ________________ 5.25 (3, 3, 3, 12)
• Lumi (2010-12,15-17) _____ 6 ________________ 6.5
• nilhg (2009-13) __________ 5 ________________ 8.0
• Mickger844posts (2011-20) _10 ________________ 8.8
• Rikand (2012-20) _________ 9 _______________11.6
• harps (2011-15) __________ 5 _______________12.6
• Danno (2009-13, 2022) _____6 _______________15.2
• Strasser (2009-13) ________ 5 _______________16.6
• JD (2009-16) _____________8 _______________17.4
• _________________________________________________
• 
  

• my avatar photo at a viewable size, Capitol Reef NP, Utah, April 2019, incipient funnel cloud passing in front of a reef (rock formation).
• (non sequitur award)
• 
  
• The next table was first posted in Dec 2019 and was next updated in 2021, and here's a further update for the leaderboard. ...
• (2019 text) ... winners from every year we've had this contest. This table does not show the position of Con Sensus (we've had enough of his or her bragging). I show the top three for each year. To make for an easier fit, mickger844posts is shortened to mickger in this table.
• 
  
• Highest scores of all time are in bold highlights. They were both in 2016.
• Scores in 2023 included a new all time record value (best 10 of 12). It may be because I am more
• generous now. Also, Con Sensus was high score in best 12 of 12 (809).
• 
  
• YEAR _ Boards Award (best 10 of 12) __________
• ______________________________"MTC Award" (total score)

2023 _ Sunflower3 (718), Artane2002 (714), tae laidir (700)

_________________________________ Sunflower (804), tae laidir (781), Artane2002 (764)

2022 _ Appledrop (704), Tae laidir Sryanbruen & Mr Stonewall (t680)

_________________________________ Appledrop (812), Artane2002 (775), Sryanbruen (773)

2021 _ Sunflower3 (702), Tae laidir, (679) Artane2002 (668)

________________________________ Sunflower3 (791), Artane2002 (759), Tae laidir (753)

2020 _ JPmarn (675), dasa29 (670), Artane2002 (663)

________________________________ JPmarn (764), dasa29 (756), Pauldry (738)

2019 _ Tae laidir (711) Artane 2002 (695) waterways (694)

_______________________________ Tae laidir (810) sunflower3 (766) mickger (765)

2018 _ Pauldry (708) sryanbruen (683) DOCARCH (672)

_______________________________ Pauldry (814) sryanbruen (765) DOCARCH, JPmarn (761)

2017 _ Pauldry (700) MrSkinner (t2-687), tae laidir (t2-687)

_______________________________ Pauldry (816) mickger (789) MrSkinner (782)

2016 _ sunflower3 (717) MrSkinner (702) Lumi (689)

_______________________________ MrSkinner (818) sunflower3 (802) dacogawa (769)

2015 _ JPmarn (669) M.T. Cranium (661) Lumi (659)

________________________________ Lumi (761) Rikand (745) JPmarn (744)

2014 _ Rikand (689) harps (688) Bsal (651)

________________________________Rikand (791) harps*(737) kindred spirit (720)

2013 _ Tae laidir (602) harps (579) kindred spirit (566)

_______________________________ Tae laidir (683) harps (646) kindred spirit (641)

2012 _ Sponge Bob (605) Lumi (599) Jerry Seinfeld (585)

_______________________________ Sponge Bob (692) Lumi (670) Jerry Seinfeld (654)

2011 _ nilhg (560) kindred spirit (529) Jerry Seinfeld (521)

______________________________ nilhg (636) mickger (584) kindred spirit (583)

2010 _ Danno (549) Joe Public (509) Jerry Seinfeld** (502)

______________________________Danno (613) Joe Public (568) DOCARCH (541)

2009^^ Danno avg 62.6, JD avg 59.4, dasa29 avg 59.3

_____________________________ Danno (751) dasa29 (712) Nacho libre (708)

____________________________________________________________________

• *In 2014 harps managed second place total score off eleven entries.
• ** In 2010 Jerry Seinfeld played 11 of 12 which is why he missed out on second or third in the total scoring.
• ^^ In 2009 we did not track best ten of twelve and the main contest award was by average score as shown.
• ===============================================================
• 
  
• From the above it can be seen that Sunflower3 has now won the Boards award three times, and Tae laidir, JPmarn and Pauldry have each won the award twice, Sunflower3 in 2016, 2021 and 2023, Tae Laidir in 2013 and 2019, JPmarn in 2015 and 2020, and Pauldry in 2017 and 2018. Also, Danno won twice in 2009 and 2010. Tae laidir added a T-2 in the Boards award for 2017 and finished second again in 2021, 2022; and then third in 2023.
• Most of the Boards award winners also won the secondary (total score) MTC award when they won the Boards award, but not always. There were different winners of total score in the 2015 and 2016 contests. Other Boards award winners have been Rikand (2014), nilhg (2011) and Sponge Bob (2012). The two winners of the total score (MTC) award who were not also Boards award winners were MrSkinner and Lumi.
• A few other names show up more than once, including Lumi, mickger844posts, kindred spirit, harps, MrSkinner and Jerry Seinfeld.
• By the way, it's not that scoring has improved, I don't think we had minimum progression before 2014.
• Three have played every contest from 2010 to the present time: Dasa29, DOCARCH and M.T. Cranium; kindred spirit has missed only four. 200motels also joined later in 2009 and played almost all the contests from 2010 to 2021 and eight more in 2022. Dacogawa and John mac have been very frequent entrants also since some time around 2009-10. Joe Public also quite a lengthy record (so I'm told).
• It is interesting how many people do about the same in most contest years but almost everyone has that one year where they break out and have a chance at a win or at least a top three finish.

M.T. Cranium

So I am just waiting to see if Dec monthly summary pops up around 1100h today, if so, I just need to verify our assumed values for DEC, in particular SUN, worked out that the six locations should average 45h SUN in December, so my estimate of 80% would imply an average of 36h.

If there are any problems with the scoring I will edit the long post above as fast as possible, and if no problems I will post a few comments. One I could post now regardless, concerns the log of all-time scoring, there were a few years back in the day when 35-40 forecasters participated so a higher average rank (lower? a larger number anyway) can be expected for those with the longest participation. But I find it interesting to track anyway.

I added cornerstonelad to table of long-term scoring, even though he (please no lawsuits, lad = he in my mostly empty cranium) has only one year in the contest, I've noticed a steady improvement in scoring and it continued right into the last month of the contest.

Anyone in top ten of this 2023 contest had a solid year and even down to 15th the scores are beating normal which is one test of skill in long-range forecasting. So back to waiting and dozing, if I don't return around 1115 to noon it probably means I fell asleep and will deal with it later.

M.T. Cranium

A review of the monthly summary revealed SUN was actually 90%, all other data used for scoring were accurate. Cork had about 20% higher sun values than the rest, so perhaps they scored fairly well in those last three days. Anyway, it made no difference to scoring except to give almost all two more points. Where it did encroach slightly was to adjust some middle ranks, if DEC was a month you dropped from total score (10 of 12) then your previous value did not go up by two, where if you counted Dec, it did go up. This had a few minor effects on annual ranks.

So now it's official and I can congratulate sunflower3 on a very good year, a third Boards award since 2016, and by one point beating the high score (718 vs 717) for that category. Artane2002 was in lead position several times and was just a few points back at end of year for second, and tae laidir had another great year and forced the leaders to do very well to stay ahead of his added 90 score in DEC. Artane2002 also had a 90 during the year.

Sryanbruen was a very solid fourth in both scoring groups. Well done to all who got into top ten positions and good luck in 2024 as we all start with a clean slate and a fair chance. I think the category scoring report can help any of us to work out what needs improving, and it also helps e figure out what scoring requirements need a closer look ( for example, minimum temperatures seem to score low overall, and perhaps I am at fault by missing opportunities to boost them so that overall they will average same as other categories).

Tae laidir had a very good score in the IMT category, well ahead of second place. Six different forecasters captured a top score in a category, so it's a very competitive forecast contest.

appledrop

Well down Sunflower3 a great win!

Also to congrat to Artane 2002 and Tae Laidir at the top of the table.

I was woeful this year. Way out on IMT and rainfall nearly every month. I just kept thinking this month has to be colder and drier and it just never happened!

Let's hope 2024 brings a lot less rain, although 3 days in its not looking good!

sunflower3

Hey all! Delighted and excited to hold out in the end. It was so close with Artane2002. I was sure he / she (don't want to assume either) would pip me at the post!

I know I don't post much but I do read a lot and learn from you all. I have found over recent years, weather patterns seem to become more embedded and hard to shift which can be quite depressing at times. Therefore, I'm usually quite conservative with my forecasts. Hoping for more exciting weather in 2024... anything other than this constant grey dullness that seems to dominate a lot of our weather.

Thanks MT as usual for running the competition every year. Forecasting is so exciting....like trying to predict the future.....lotto numbers anyone??

Wishing you all the best for 2024.