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December 2023 Boards weather forecast contest _ enter to be fully involved in all 2024 contests

  • 28-11-2023 9:04am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭


    If you were perhaps thinking of joining in next year, this is the best month to get started because one component of the contest year is seasonal and that part begins with Dec 2023. The annual contest runs through the calendar year of 2024 ...


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website? ... and this includes 24th as well as 25th of December. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations with snow will bring in the "No" scores at 3.


    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Friday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 4h late to 1500h Saturday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 9 points accumulated to that time).


    Good luck !! (and welcome)



«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Tazio _________ 4.0 _ 11.5_ -6.5 _ 075 _ 105 __ No



    PS. Thank you again MT for fantastic input during the year; and for all the tutorials! Much appreciated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,709 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    SleetAndSnow _________ 5.1 _ 13.1_ -6.2 _ 070 _ 90 __ No


    May as well rejoin! Will try my best to keep up with it this year



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,738 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _________ 5.0 _ 14.8 _ -7.0 _ 110 _ 90 __ 8.2, 1.6, No

    Post edited by sryanbruen on

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,075 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo _________ 5.2 _ 13.7_ -6.8 _ 096 _ 102 __8.9, 3.4, No

    Post edited by Gonzo on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,445 ✭✭✭esposito


    esposito _________ 5.9 _ 15.0_ -6.1_105 _ 95 __ 15.0, 5.3 No



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Wolfeire _________ 4.9 _ 13.5_-7.1_95_105_.5.2_-3.5_yes (ballyhaise)

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,034 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 __________ 5.7 _ 14.6 _ -6.5 _ 95 _ 105 ___ 7.6 __ 2.8 __ No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,300 ✭✭✭pauldry



    Pauldry_________ 5.9 _ 17.0 _ -6_ 99_ 104 ___ 4.6 __ 0.8 __ Yes (Knock)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,781 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal _________ 5.3 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 95 _ 99 __ 8.0, 3.0, No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 579 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29_________ 5.5 _ 15.0 _ -4.0_ 110_ 100 ___ 4.0 __ -2.0 __ Yes (Mullingar)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 350 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 5.8 ___ 13.9 ___ -5.8 ___ 90 ___ 115 ___ 9.9° ___ 2.5° ___ No.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 382 ✭✭waterways


    waterways ___ 5.6 ___ 16.9 ___ -8.8 ___ 84 ___ 87 ___ 4.9 ___ 2.4 ___ Yes_ knockin' ... .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 845 ✭✭✭omicron


    omicron _________ 5.1 _ 14.9_ -5.5 _ 090 _ 105 __10.7, 4.5, No

    Post edited by omicron on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,241 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire _________ 5.5 _ 11.1_ -5.9 _ 085 _ 90 __ 10.0, 2.0 No

    Post edited by rameire on

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 196 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3__________ 5.2 _ 15.1_ -5.9 _ 105 _ 90 ___ 8.5, 1.2, No

    And just to add 'Go raibh maith agat' MT......or 'Thank you' in Canadian ☺️

    Your contributions are appreciated all year, every year....👍



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    A personal message is on its way to several entrants with no temps for Dub(A) on 25th ... will give them a few days into Dec to respond. Edit into posts if possible.


    m. t. cranium _______ 4.7 __ 15.0 __ -8.8 __ 110 __ 110 __ 7.2 _ 3.7 _ Yes (Cork)

    NormaL ____________5.3 __ 15.5 __ -6.5 __ 100 __ 100 __ 8.2 _ 2.2 _ No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 717 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Bazler __4.3__13.2__-9.4__90__112__6.2_-0.4

    YES Oak Park.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,709 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    SleetAndSnow _________ 5.1 _ 13.1_ -6.2 _ 070 _ 90 __8.2___-1.2 No


    Apologies received the PM but couldn't edit my original post @M.T. Cranium! Added the Dub(A) max and min!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____________4.6 __ 13.8 __ -7.5 __ 115 __ 110 __ 5.2 _ -1.5 _ Yes(Knock)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,965 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall____4.8__14.2__-7.2___98___115__5.9__1.6__no



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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _________ 5.2 _ 14.4_ -4.1 _ 75 _ 102 __4.8___-1.6 No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 50 ✭✭Cornerstonelad


    Cornerstonelad ____5___13.5____-6.5___120___85___9.2___4___No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public _________ 4.8 _ 14.4 _ -8.3 _ 96 _ 108 __ 6.3, -2.1, No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 843 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610___________5.3 __ 15.6 __ -7.5 __ 100 __ 100 __ 11.1 _ 3.1_ No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____________6.0 __ 14.6 __ -5.1 __ 121 __ 95 __ 9.1 _ 4.9 _ No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 400 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner_____6.0_____15.4_____-5.0_____100_____111_____(7.9……1.9…..No.)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,244 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    sdanseo _________ 4.6 _ 12.2_ -7.0 _ 112 _ 95 __ 12.2, 3.0, No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,987 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 ____________2.7__ 12.7 __ -13.3 __ 110 __ 120 __ 1.2 _ -7.2 _ Yes, Casement



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Note to late posters: As is customary in situations of early verifying stats, any entries for min after 0600 today will be subject to 15/20 score cap if it appears that a late forecast is using a known value already verified. It would be in addition to late penalty. To avoid it, a forecaster can go for a lower value expected later, or activate a self-adjusting score by posting a less extreme value than is already reported. This also applies to any late edits of earlier posted values, but in those cases no late penalty is assessed, just the scoring cap.

    Example: after it is posted on forum overnight low of -6.2, you predict -6.2 (at 1500 ), your late penalty is 3 and your min score will be 15/20 if -6.2 persists to end. If a later value is tied or lower, you score against that outcome. If a later value is within 0.5 and is not the min, your score is calculated against that value (your score will be better than 15/20 if so). If you post a value that is not quite accurate (e.g. -6.0), your score cap is still 15/20. If you post a value not within 0.5 of known value your score is calculated without reference to scoring cap.

    One other clarification, any Dub (A) 25th predictions should be on the thread or available by 3rd 18z after which contest deadline protocols apply to that forecast only.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,200 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Ah Jaysus I forgot. Appledrop 4.8____13.5 ___-6.9___85___110__8.2__2.0__No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,140 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac _________ 5.2 _ 14.6 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 98 __ 9.2, 2.6__No



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,845 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa____ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -7.7 _ 115 _ 89 __ 4.9_ -2.9, Yes (Mullingar)


    Apologies about the lateness! And a Merry Christmas to all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels---------- 5.3 _ 13.5 _ -5.9 _ 109 _ 97 __ 9.2, 2.4 no



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    -5.8c at Mount Dillon yesterday. Healthy kick off for low temp!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After one day IMT is 0.3 C about six degrees below average.

    Working on table of forecasts ... see notes on Nov contest scoring post, we are in for a very wild ending to contest, especially given range of possible DEC values.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium



    Table of forecasts for December 2023


    FORECASTER ____________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Dub(A) 25 Dec, snow? 24/25 Dec

    MrSkinner ______________ 6.0 _ 15.4 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 111 __ 7.9, 1.9 __ No

    Tae laidir _______________ 6.0 _ 14.6 _ -5.1 _ 121 _ 095 __ 9.1, 4.9 __ No

    Pauldry _________________5.9 _ 17.0 _ -6.0 _ 099 _ 104 __ 4.6, 0.8 __ Yes (Knock)

    esposito ________________ 5.9 _ 15.0 _ -6.1 _ 105 _ 095 __15.0, 5.3 __ No

    Kindred Spirit ____________5.8 _ 13.9 _ -5.8 _ 090 _ 115 __ 9.9° 2.5°__ No

    Artane2002 ______________5.7 _ 14.6 _ -6.5 _ 095 _ 105 __ 7.6, 2.8 __ No

    waterways ______________ 5.6 _ 16.9 _ -8.8 _ 084 _ 087 __ 4.9, 2.4 __ Yes _ knockin' ...

    Dasa29 _________________5.5 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 4.0, -2.0 __ Yes (Mullingar)

    Rameire ________________ 5.5 _ 11.1 _ -5.9 _ 085 _ 090 __10.0, 2.0 __ No

    ___ NormaL _____________5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 8.2, 2.2 __ No

    Adam240610 ____________ 5.3 _ 15.6 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 100 __11.1, 3.1 __ No

    Bsal ___________________ 5.3 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 099 __ 8.0, 3.0 __ No

    200motels _____(-2) _____ 5.3 _ 13.5 _ -5.9 _ 109 _ 097 __ 9.2, 2.4 __ No

    Sunflower3 ______________5.2 _ 15.1 _ -5.9 _ 105 _ 090 __ 8.5, 1.2 __ No

    john mac _____(-1) ______ 5.2 _ 14.6 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 098 __ 9.2, 2.6 __ No

    DOCARCH ______________ 5.2 _ 14.4 _ -4.1 _ 075 _ 102 __ 4.8, -1.6 __ No

    Gonzo __________________5.2 _ 13.7 _ -6.8 _ 096 _ 102 __ 8.9, 3.4 __ No

    ___ Con Sensus __________ 5.2 _ 14.2 _ -6.5 _ 099 _ 102 __ 8.0, 2.0 __ No (22/31)

    omicron ________________ 5.1 _ 14.9 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 105 __10.7, 4.5 __ No

    Dacogawa ____(-1) _______5.1 _ 14.2 _ -7.7 _ 115 _ 089 __ 4.9, -2.9 __ Yes (Mullingar)

    SleetAndSnow ___________ 5.1 _ 13.1 _ -6.2 _ 070 _ 090 __ 8.2, -1.2 __ No

    sryanbruen ______________5.0 _ 14.8 _ -7.0 _ 110 _ 090 __ 8.2, 1.6 __ No

    Cornerstonelad ___________5.0 _ 13.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 085 __ 9.2, 4.0 __ No

    Wolfeire ________________ 4.9 _ 13.5 _ -7.1 _ 095 _ 105 __ 5.2, -3.5 __ Yes (Ballyhaise)

    Joe Public _______________4.8 _ 14.4 _ -8.3 _ 096 _ 108 __ 6.3, -2.1 __ No

    Mr stonewall _____________4.8 _ 14.2 _ -7.2 _ 098 _ 115 __ 5.9, 1.6 __ No

    Appledrop __ (-1) ________ 4.8 _ 13.5 _ -6.9 _ 085 _ 110 __ 8.2, 2.0 __ No

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.7 _ 15.0 _ -8.8 _ 110 _ 110 __ 7.2, 3.7 __ Yes (Cork)

    Jpmarn _______________ 4.6 _ 13.8 _ -7.5 _ 115 _ 110 __ 5.2, -1.5 __ Yes (Knock)

    sdanseo ________________ 4.6 _ 12.2 _ -7.0 _ 112 _ 095 __12.2, 3.0 __ No

    Bazlers _________________4.3 _ 13.2 _ -9.4 _ 090 _ 112 __ 6.2, -0.4 __ Yes (Oak Park)

    Tazio ___________________4.0 _ 11.5_ -6.5 _ 075 _ 105 __ tbd _ tbd __ No

    BLIZZARD7 _____________ 2.7 _ 12.7 _ -13.3_ 110 _ 120 __1.2, -7.2 __ Yes (Casement)

    ===============================

    31 forecasts to date, still need 25 Dec Dub (A) from Tazio, but as not in annual contest will insert a reasonable guess of 7, 1 given context (if Tazio doesn't post by 3rd).

    Consensus for 31 forecasts is 16th ranked forecast.

    Good luck and enjoy the festive season ... let's hope it snows a bit anyway (it has here but that's no surprise)

    22 of 31 foresee a "green" Christmas, of 9 guesses for a location, it was Knock 3 times, 2 picked Mullingar and Cork, Casement, Oak Park and Ballyhaise each were in with a shout. (twice on the pipe if the answer is no ...)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT was 0.9 after two days, today's estimated value is around 1.5 C bringing it to 1.1 after 3 days. (Dec 2010 was 0.4 for 31d)

    Did you get a chance to look over the annual scoring? For best 10/12 it looks quite close and looking at forecasts above, top two sunflower3 and Artane2002 have a 22-point separation available, if either one was better situated on all five basic forecasts, and their bonus answers are likely to score within one, so overall they could alter current small margin by 22 points. Of course they could exchange points on different elements and see less of a shift. If you're top ten now, look at your own points separation in forecasts against either of them . In my case, it's around 30 points, and I would need just about all of those. (if not sure how to calculate, it's one point per 0.1 differentials on three temperature factors, then divide PRC differential by three, and SUN by five. Bonus you would need to consider the range and as their forecasts are fairly close to consensus, your separation can only be five on temps, and three on snow if you said yes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tazio would like 8.0, 3.0 for missing Dub(A) 25 Dec temps. Con Sensus will be okay as is. (I calculated it from 7, 1 but ties meant it did not really move).

    Looks like imt will rise steadily now but I do see occasional cold days in mix, may not soar too far up before levelling off around 5 C.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Both Moore Park and Casement recorded 13.3 yesterday.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,300 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Tomorrow the strong winds bring a 14c to the South id say.

    Dunno why I picked 17c (I thought it was June), prob coz I've no chance so 17c or 100c no odds.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After one week ...

    IMT _ 3.4 C, 2.7 below average.

    MAX _ 13.3

    MIN _ -5.8

    PRC _ 84% of average

    SUN _ 109% of average



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Valentia recorded 13.5 yesterday.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT _ 5.6 C, second week 7.6, 2.0 above average.

    MAX _ 13.5

    MIN _ -5.8

    PRC _ est 120%, second week average 156% (Shannon not included in weekly ag report)

    SUN _ est 100%, second week average 90% (ditto)

    Recent guidance for 25th all over the place, latest (06z) GFS would say 9 C but colder on 24 Dec so a large range and possibly bits of snow; earlier guidance was wintry, could return as guidance wobbly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Newport Furnace equaled 13.5 yesterday.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    High of 14.1c at Moore Park yesterday.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT _ 7.0 C, third week 9.7, 4.2 deg above average.

    MAX _ 14.1

    MIN _ -5.8

    PRC _ 100%, third week average 61% (The issue in week 2 with Shannon not included in weekly ag report did not repeat and I counter-checked est value by reviewing precip to date, in line with exactly 100% of expected for 21 of 31 days ... we are currently guaranteed about 66% plus whatever falls now to 31st ... if that is an average value for ten days, then we'll stay near 100%)

    SUN _ est 90%, third week average 61% east sunny, west cloudy ... (this is still based on one approx value in week two)

    outlook for 24-25 Dec, only a very slight chance of snow at Knock or Ballyhaise perhaps, Dub(A) 9-10 C, 3-5 C on 25 Dec (24h)

    IMT could back off a bit after adding another 0.2-0.3 by 24 Dec, but looks set to end up near top of our forecast range. Other values not likely to change a lot.

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    A roundup of our 25 Dec predictions, placed in order of max temps at Dub(A). We can assume max of at least 9 C as it is going to be close to 9 C at midnight. The min will probably be 24 hrs later at the following midnight.


    FORECASTER ____________Dub(A) 25 Dec, snow? 24/25 Dec

    esposito ________________15.0, 5.3 __ No

    sdanseo ________________12.2, 3.0 __ No

    Adam240610 ___________ 11.1, 3.1 __ No

    omicron ________________10.7, 4.5 __ No

    Rameire ________________10.0, 2.0 __ No

    Kindred Spirit ____________9.9, 2.5 __ No

    Cornerstonelad __________ 9.2, 4.0 __ No

    john mac _____(-1) ______ 9.2, 2.6 __ No

    200motels _____(-2) _____ 9.2, 2.4 __ No

    Tae laidir _______________ 9.1, 4.9 __ No

    Gonzo _________________ 8.9, 3.4 __ No

    Sunflower3 _____________ 8.5, 1.2 __ No

    ___ NormaL ___________8.2, 2.2 __ No

    Appledrop __ (-1) ________ 8.2, 2.0 __ No

    sryanbruen ______________8.2, 1.6 __ No

    SleetAndSnow ___________ 8.2, -1.2 __ No

    Bsal ___________________ 8.0, 3.0 __ No

    Tazio ___________________8.0, 3.0 ___ no

    ___ Con Sensus __________8.0, 2.0 __ No (22/31)

    MrSkinner ______________ 7.9, 1.9 __ No

    Artane2002 _____________ 7.6, 2.8 __ No

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 7.2, 3.7 __ Yes (Cork)

    Joe Public _______________6.3, -2.1 __ No

    Bazlers _________________6.2, -0.4 __ Yes (Oak Park)

    Mr stonewall ____________ 5.9, 1.6 __ No

    Jpmarn _______________5.2, -1.5 __ Yes (Knock)

    Wolfeire ________________5.2, -3.5 __ Yes (Ballyhaise)

    waterways ______________4.9, 2.4 __ Yes _ knockin' ...

    Dacogawa ____(-1) ______ 4.9, -2.9 __ Yes (Mullingar)

    DOCARCH ______________ 4.8, -1.6 __ No

    Pauldry _________________4.6, 0.8 __ Yes (Knock)

    Dasa29 _________________4.0, -2.0 __ Yes (Mullingar)

    BLIZZARD7 _____________ 1.2, -7.2 __ Yes (Casement)

    ===============================

    As to snow, obviously none to at least mid-day Christmas Day, and probably none after that, but a faint hope for some at Knock possibly towards late evening. We may have to send Pauldry on a scouting mission. I will score these on 26th. You will get 1-5 points for each of the two, in equal groups (as far as possible given a few tied forecasts). Yes/no bonus is 3, if you chose "no" you get 2/3 for that and another 1 if your location is correct.

    The IMT is now 7.4 C (est), likely its peak value but it will only come down slowly and will definitely be well above our top forecast of 6.0, so will score from minimum progression, preserving differentials ... probably giving 6.0 23/25 points and working down from it. All other elements are likely to be okay for raw scoring, especially if max got a boost earlier today (yesterday?) for me it is today for 8 more hrs. I hope you all have a very enjoyable Christmas and/or holiday season. Back on Tuesday afternoon probably with scoring for bonus.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Moore Park did indeed boost it to 14.4.

    Many Happy Returns to you and your gang!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    9.7, 6.5, no.

    Scoring for Dec 2023 bonus

    FORECASTER ____________Dub(A) 25 Dec, snow? 24/25 Dec

    esposito ________________15.0, 5.3 __ No _____ _____ 1 5 3 ___ 9

    sdanseo ________________12.2, 3.0 __ No _____ _____ 3 4 3 ___10

    Adam240610 ___________ 11.1, 3.1 __ No _____ _____ 4 4 3 ___11

    omicron ________________10.7, 4.5 __ No _____ _____ 5 5 3 ___13

    Rameire ________________10.0, 2.0 __ No _____ _____5 3 3 ___11

    Kindred Spirit ____________9.9, 2.5 __ No _____ _____ 5 4 3 ___12

    Cornerstonelad __________ 9.2, 4.0 __ No _____ _____ 5 5 3 ___13

    john mac _____(-1) ______ 9.2, 2.6 __ No _____ _____ 5 4 3 ___12

    200motels _____(-2) _____ 9.2, 2.4 __ No _____ _____ 5 3 3 ___11

    Tae laidir _______________ 9.1, 4.9 __ No _____ _____ 5 5 3 ___13

    Gonzo _________________ 8.9, 3.4 __ No _____ _____ 5 5 3 ___13

    Sunflower3 _____________ 8.5, 1.2 __ No _____ _____ 4 2 3 ___ 9

    ___ NormaL ___________8.2, 2.2 __ No _____ _____ 4 3 3 ___10

    Appledrop __ (-1) ________8.2, 2.0 __ No _____ _____ 4 3 3 ___10

    sryanbruen ______________8.2, 1.6 __ No _____ _____ 4 2 3 ___ 9

    SleetAndSnow ___________ 8.2, -1.2 __ No _____ _____4 1 3 ___ 8

    Bsal ___________________ 8.0, 3.0 __ No _____ _____ 4 4 3 ___11

    Tazio ___________________8.0, 3.0 __ no _____ _____ 4 4 3 ___11

    ___ Con Sensus __________8.0, 2.0 __ No _____ _____ 4 3 3 ___10

    MrSkinner ______________ 7.9, 1.9 __ No _____ _____ 4 3 3 ___10

    Artane2002 _____________ 7.6, 2.8 __ No _____ _____ 3 4 3 ___10

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 7.2, 3.7 __ Yes (Cork) _____3 5 0 ___ 8

    Joe Public _______________6.3, -2.1 __ No _____ _____2 1 3 ___ 6

    Bazlers _________________6.2, -0.4 __ Yes (Oak Park)_ 2 2 0 ___ 4

    Mr stonewall ____________ 5.9, 1.6 __ No _____ _____ 2 2 3 ___ 7

    Jpmarn _______________5.2, -1.5 __ Yes (Knock) ____2 1 0 ___ 3

    Wolfeire ________________5.2, -3.5 __ Yes (Ballyhaise) _2 1 0 ___ 3

    waterways ______________4.9, 2.4 __ Yes _ knockin' ... _1 3 0 ___ 4

    Dacogawa ____(-1) ______ 4.9, -2.9 __ Yes (Mullingar) __1 1 0 ___ 2

    DOCARCH ______________ 4.8, -1.6 __ No _____ _____ 1 1 3 ___ 5

    Pauldry _________________4.6, 0.8 __ Yes (Knock) ____ 1 2 0 ___ 3

    Dasa29 _________________4.0, -2.0 __ Yes (Mullingar) __1 1 0 ___ 2

    BLIZZARD7 _____________ 1.2, -7.2 __ Yes (Casement)__1 1 0 ___ 2

    ===============================

    Best forecasts:

    max _ Kindred Spirit 9.9, Rameire 10.0, several 9.2

    min _ esposito 5.3, tae laidir 4.9, omicron 4.5

    lowest total error _ tae laidir 2.2, omicron and cornerstonelad 3.0



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,744 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It will be quite an interesting end to contest year ... just to review, I have retrieved the annual scoring update from the NOV contest thread.

    The Boards Award is based on best 10/12 scores, and I have added in brackets where each forecaster stands in terms of guaranteed best 10, taking the higher of two excluded scores (which is now easier to spot, in bold italic), in case you don't surpass that score in Dec (then the second highest excluded score would go into your best 10/12).

    The award for total score (M.T. Cranium Award) _ no you don't have to put up with me for a year LOL _ is easier to figure out, just add your DEC score to the current TOTAL.

    I really have no idea how this is going to work out, very close at the top for best 10 out of 11 or 12, anyone coming from below Con Sensus is going to need to score 80 to 90 even if two leaders do not improve on second lowest score, and based on info below, anyone below current 6th place cannot catch the leaders.

    Sunflower3 is probably on safer ground with the total score category, as the closest three all need at least 30 points extra in Dec.

    This table will be edited to show final results in a few days from now.


    Rank (prv) best 9/11__FORECASTER__ J__F__M__A__M__J__J__A__S__O__N__D__TOTAL_Rank NOV <

    _ ___ ___ __ (best 10/11) _ _ __ ___ __ _ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ ____ __(OCT)>

    01 (02) _643_(690)__ Sunflower3 ___47_69_39_84_72_55_73_73_73_67_77_xx__ 729 (1) _ (2)

    02 (01) _641_(691)__ Artane2002* _ 50_71_78_---_71_66_68_90_72_68_57_xx__ 691 (t5) _ (4)


    (2.7) (3.2)_621_(680)_ Con Sensus _ 65_74_58_64_66_68_60_79_68_77_59_xx__ 738 00.7 (00.7)


    03 (04) _612_(656)__ M.T. Cranium _ 67_70_44_54_61_59_89_63_63_86_42_xx__ 698 (2) _ (1)

    04 (03) _610_(653)__ tae laidir _____38_64_72_80_68_43_64_70_78_66_48_xx__ 691 (t5) _ (3)

    05 (05) _601_(649)__ sryanbruen ___46_76_68_55_70_76_55_48_57_83_61_xx__ 695 (4) _ (5)

    06 (09) _587_(640)__ Kindred Spirit _58_74_74_62_54_77_37_55_53_57_76_xx__ 677 (7) _ (8)

    07 (06) _584_(640)__ adam240610 _ 61_61_65_57_62_72_67_57_56_74_65_xx__ 697 (3) _ (6)

    08 (07) _573_(622)__ Jpmarn* ____ 61_49_50_51_---_69_70_75_75_65_57_xx__ 622 (16)_(t13)

    t09 (11) _568_(615)__ john mac* __ 58_47_71_72_61_---_51_71_54_63_68_xx__ 615 (t18)_(21)

    t09 (t12)_568_(602)__ MrSkinner ___25_69_34_53_72_65_47_69_58_65_70_xx__ 627 _(t13)_(t19)

    11 (17) _566_(615)__ Cornerstonelad_49_61_25_58_56_49_56_76_68_64_77_xx__ 640 (11)_ (t13)

    12 (10) _563_(615)__ Appledrop ____53_64_73_64_33_72_56_52_60_64_57_xx__ 648 (10) _ (9)

    13 (08) _562_(610)__ DOCARCH ____77_67_69_48_51_58_45_55_57_78_50_xx__ 655 (8) _ (7)

    t14 (t12)_559_(605)__ Gonzo ______46_69_52_58_60_44_84_52_65_58_61_xx__ 649 (9) _(10)

    t14 (15)_ 559_(600)__ waterways ___52_27_41_76_53_59_68_65_67_54_65_xx__ 627 (t13)_(15)

    16 (14) _549_(596)__ Rameire _____ 10_68_52_53_61_57_69_59_60_70_47_xx__ 606 (21)_(18)

    (16.7)(18.1)_547 (589) NormaL ___67_44_76_77_42_38_65_60_46_47_65_xx__ 627 (13.0)(16.0)

    17 (16) _546_(597)__ Dacogawa ____63_58_54_51_39_79_51_55_66_65_55_xx__ 636 (12)_(11)

    18 (23) _545_(586)__ Joe Public ____46_48_53_63_42_54_41_71_85_41_83_xx__ 627 (t13)_(22)

    19 (19) _536_(577)__ 200 motels____41_74_38_66_68_50_51_47_66_59_55_xx__ 615 (t18)_(17)

    t20 (18) _526_(568)__ Bsal*________71_49_42_68_46_54_62_61_44_71_---_xx__ 568 (23)_(12)

    t20 (21) _526_(574)__ Pauldry _____ 50_62_66_50_48_64_56_51_46_68_59_xx__ 620 (17)_(16)

    22 (20) _524_(568)__ Dasa29 _____ 61_54_42_45_63_51_44_65_66_66_53_xx__ 610 (20)_(t19)

    23 (24) _513_(558)__ Mr.stonewall _ 45_30_54_48_48_57_61_72_57_55_61_xx__ 588 (22)_(23)

    24 (22) _510_(510)__ esposito** ___54_57_45_---_---_49_50_72_66_73_44_xx__ 510 (24)_(24)

    ================== above can still qualify for best 10/12 =====================

    25 (25) _WolfeEire (4/11) _________ 76_47_59_52 _---_---_ ---_---_---_---_---_xx__ 234

    26 (26) _ sdanseo (2/11) __________---_---_--_-- _ -- _ 59_---_---_---_ 86_ ---_xx__145

    27 (27)_Rebelbrowser(1/11) _______ 78__---_--_--_-- _---_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 78

    28 (28) _ JCX BXC (1/11) _________ --- _ ---_--_--_-- _ 65_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 65

    29 (29) _Aah yes (1/11) ___________--- _ ---_--_-- 60 _---_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 60

    30 (30) _ Danno (1/11) ___________ 58__---_--_--_-- _---_ ---_---_---_---_---_---___ 58

    31 (31) _ Tazio (1/11) ____________ --- _ ---_--_--_-- _ 51_ ---_---_---_---_---_xx___ 51

    ___________________________________



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