Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Wars do not continue in stalemate forever. It is time to consider the outcome of different scenarios. Most people on this thread have speculated on their preferred outcome of a Putin regime collapse, are very reluctant for obvious reasons to consider a Ukrainian collapse. That nettle must be grasped.

Scenario 1: Zelensky regime collapses.

• Middle east war spreads, direct conflict with Iran, oil and gas shortage affects China and Western Europe
• China is now directly in the war, it's oil and gas supply lines are affected, it fact every country is.
• US election, domestic concerns, no support among American public for unwinnable wars, US political crisis, debt and inflation issues.
• Series of losses on battlefield, Russians consolidate the southern corridor to Crimea and expand into the remaining territory of the oblasts they annexed.
• Internal chaos in Kiev, blame game for losses, generals fired and army revolts or stops functioning rather than accumulate more losses.

Scenario 2: Putin regime collapses.

• WW I play. Putin cannot change course, more Russians dragged into frontline, morale collapses.
• No Bolsheviks to seize power this time, enough resources wasted, new internal armies fight it out with scraps for power (warlords) and civil war. 
• China provides security guarantee to the 'stan countries to protect them from the instability in Russia and protect supply lines.   
• Middle east is still a mess, Pakistan collapses, which it may do whatever outcome.   
• War expands, there is a territory grab while the opportunity presents itself. Turkey uses the opportunity to expand its borders, Syria collapses.

Scenario 3: China and United States come to an agreement on Middle East and new world order.

• Neocons sidelined, domestic economy issues (debt collapse) overhang both countries. 
• Cooler American heads prevail & compute the consequences of direct war with Iran, decide no. 
• China and USA agree on timeout direction of the new world order for the next decade.  
• China pulls Putin aside, USA pulls Zelensky aside. Domestic opinion inside both countries is amenable to compromise.
• Political change happens globally reflecting the new world order.

The possibility of collapse in Zelenskys government is not zero. Knowing that wars are too expensive to continue indefinitely, and must come to an end with either a victory for one party or a compromise among both. How could it happen? and what would be the fallout?

I'd say your scenario #2 is most likely and after that #1.

Your third option would require a helluva lot of wheels to turn and change direction.

yeah, they just can't help themselves. 😁 Propaganda TV works well. Note how they set the order in their scenarios list. Ukraine first to fall. As always.

Did you live in some form of anarchy? Presumably you expect your government follows some rules, social customs and behaviours i.e. a régime. If you want to use the term as exclusively meaning authoritarian government, well, Ukraine is in a state of war right now, as a consequence Zelenskys government has become authoritarian and people in Ukraine must live under the new rules imposed by Zelenskys regime.

Are you not able to confront your fears that the good guys don't always win wars? Is that why you refuse to consider the possibility, however abhorrent to you, that the war situation has developed not necessarily to Ukraine's advantage. Even with your bias in favour of Ukrainian victory, are you not capable of holding a second opinion that the outcome of the war may be different than you expect and should it come about what the consequences may be?

Are you so paranoid you are reduced to shouting "reds under the bed", You write off the worst scenario as Russian propaganda, why then put faith in other propaganda about the next wunderwaffen to deliver victory? These don't deliver victory, the other side has them as well.

Zelensky was democratically elected in normal elections, bizarre use of the word "regime" there. Likewise some strange tangents.

It's widely assumed that if neither side's will/ability to fight doesn't completely collapse then the war will come to a negotiated end or (semi) frozen stalemate (like N/S Korea)

apart from yourself, I have not seen anyone using "reds under the bed". That is a very strange sentence you keep shouting. Reminds me of something... EPA, EPA, EPA

It's easy say all that from the safety of the Varadkar Regime (or is it the Mikey D regime?)

Mikey D regime, which of course is influenced by that evil Zelensky regime 😀

The assumption is baseless unless external powers agree to freeze the conflict, one side or the other will collapse. The Korean situation only became possible because the major powers had enough and the US had the muscle to keep an army in place on the peninsula. North and South Vietnam, did not work there, once the US withdrew support, the South fell. Once the US withdrew from Afghanistan, the Taliban quickly seized power in a very successful operation.

Right now, it does not look good for the Ukrainian army, a key issue, they are running out of men and cannot sustain offense. See New Raft of Articles Tighten the Screws on Zelensky, Plead for Course Correction.

Perhaps the 'Reds' are under the bed..

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