Russia - threadbanned users in OP

The allies gave up East Germany and Eastern Europe for 45 years. So it’s not a huge stretch to imagine a scenario where eastern Ukraine becomes a Cold War type scenario. At the bare minimum Putin is sure that those territories will be sacrificed. But deep down in his delusion he probably thinks article 5 wont save the Baltics or the likes of Moldova either. And if he survives this current war I wouldn’t bet against him testing that at some point in the not too distant future. In fairness another viktor orban type character in another major European country would be a massive boost to those goals. Without a clear strategy to destroy Putin he will always be a danger to Europe. And there is no clear cohesive strategy. Russia are controlling the intensity of this war by default, by their incompetence. Ukraine just seem to be kept in the game with carefully calibrated weapons supplies to whatever the threat level Russia pose. But at no point are they allowed to up the intensity themselves and drive the Russians out and collapse the Putin regime .

In fairness, if Eastern European countries express some kind of democratic mandate to ally with Russia (i.e. by electing a pro-Russian government), then they should be allowed to do that, as much as I think it would be a bad idea, personally, and disagree with Putin's vision of how the world order should be. But if they're a member of the EU, their membership or benefits of being such, should be heavily reexamined, so long as the EU is opposed to Putin's Russia.

What I fundamentally object to is Putin's Russia attempting to exert its political will on surrounding countries through direct military intervention, especially where and when said countries' people and/or governments are not consenting to coming under increased Russian influence. We can see the Ukrainian people fighting tooth and nail to prevent this process for many years, now.

I don't think Russia has the stuff, militarily, to eat into Eastern Europe in any significant way. We already see how much they're being bogged down just against the NATO handmedowns that Ukraine have been receiving. A conventional war against a joint NATO force does not end in anything like the stalemate we're currently seeing in Ukraine. It ends with Russian forces scurrying back over their borders, saying blyat.

It's only if the NATO alliance ends up not being worth the paper it's printed on that Russia has some kind of a chance, but even then, Russia would have it's work cut out against an ad-hoc alliance of say Poland, Germany and France.

I'd say that every country in that region has given up on Russia ever changing, based on past history. Maybe 20 or 30 ( or more) years post Putin there might be a rethink, but currently? No, I doubt it. It will have to be dismantled and re-built from the ground up, and who knows if that's even possible?

You know probably better than I that he could easily declare "Mission Accomplished - We've killed all the Nazis" and the Russian public would have no choice but to accept this. His real problem at this point would be that all public attention would return to domestic issues and then the wheels totally fall off. Russia is in a tailspin economically, socially and demographically and even if all sanctions on them were removed the day after their withdrawal, that's not going to change. Revolution / Regime change will eventually come imo (it's pretty much inevitable when there stops being food on the shelves of the supermarkets) all Putin can do is try to delay it until after his own lifetime.

I thought we were long past the point of Ukraine needing Russian permission to join NATO or the EU? Finland pretty much imploded the concept of their namesake "Finlandisation" by joining NATO regardless of Russian sabre-rattling & threats. The only barriers to Ukraine's NATO membership now are the Russians on their territory and the approval of other NATO members. Apart from that, the AFU is being converted gradually into a de-facto NATO-grade force.

The Russian occupation will however not stop EU membership. That might still take a good few years, but as with the case of Cyprus having a hostile neighbour invading, it does not stop you from joining the economic union.

Also, we have been over this countless times in the thread, but awarding any territory to the Russians for what they have done is an invitation for them to try again later. Whatever "peace" won would be very temporary, and any treaty with Putin would be worthless. The best the Russians should hope for are a normalisation of relations with the West and the dropping of sanctions. The price of that has *at the very least* been withdrawal from all of Ukraine, and as time progresses that price could increase to include a shopping list of War-Criminals for The Hauge or varing degrees of dearming or even DMZs imposed within Russian territory.

UAF seem to be making surprising progress on the left bank..

A bit on skynews in regards to artillery shells going to Ukraine or lack of them since the Israel Gaza escalations since October.

Yes, Putin could well declare Mission Accomplished, and not only get away with it, but march in triumph all the way to the Kremlin, a newly popular re-elected Hero President. But his advisers don't want that.....and neither does he, so it will play out to the bitter end until the Russians will finally say ENOUGH. And while it's undoubtedly heading in that direction, it is still some time in the future, they haven't suffered enough yet. But even my Russian Friend, the one who is (or maybe not, but in Russia, you can't be too careful) an avid supporter of Putin, is complaining more and more about everyday life there. But never seems to make the connection between what's happening in society and Putin.

If anyone fancies the tough life in Spartan conditions, they can join Peskov's daughter in Paris.

Someone posted a link here a few days ago I think how Ukraine have made a big effort with counter battery fire to keep the Russian artillery back out of range of the UA bridgehead.