Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Thats a non answer.

More stating the obvious - can you try to score it next time? I'm sure that would help.

The contradiction is

You cant say on the one hand it that it was a really really basic mistake, if on the other hand you dont know how to fix it. The latter says you dont understand it, which you would be able to do if it was actually so basic. Sorry I have to spell that out.....

I'd view it differently.

Thats a kick that Sexton scores, in normal circumstances maybe 9 times out of 10. Maybe 19 times out of 20.

However it wasnt normal circumstances, far from it, which reduces that probability to 7 or 8 out of 10. Which means it happens. And it did.

I’m sure we could through tape and find Ireland benefiting from just as many lucky calls. If people want to believe that SA and NZ have 7 WCs between them and it’s because of luck rather than something else they produce, well, more power to you. Maybe we need a Shaman rather than a S&C coach in that case.

This is the risk of extrapolating from the specific, refs miss many incidents in a game that are/look decisive after the fact. Ireland made more mistakes than NZ, end of story. The question to ask is why and how to avoid such mistakes in future. NZ made NO handling errors in the match, that is not magic, it’s discipline, skill and composure. If we made no mistakes in that game we’d have gone to a semi final and then who knows.

I have no evidence for this as it's just a gut feeling, but I think that despite most of the squad still being available and the talent coming through, I believe we are going to struggle for the next year or so. I think this failure (along with the core group of Leinster players who have continually failed to get over the line in Europe since 2018) is going to cause some mental scaring. I just see how they pick themselves up and go again. Add to this the coaching changes at Leinster (with a guy who couldn't be any more different in approach to his predecessor), I believe Leinster will struggle too this year.

I think this years 6 nations will be 2 away losses and maybe 3 home wins. I don't see us winning the upcoming 6 nations never mind getting a grand slam.

After the 2015 WC (in which we were all talking about the best depth we'd ever had) we showed that we had very little actual depth that year. 2019 is not worth going into as the writing was on the wall long before that tournament, but this year we really thought we had squad depth. Did we really? Unfortunately unless you have proper depth across all positions you are not going to win a world cup. Front row had been an issue for a while now. We have gotten by just about but we always seems to struggle there. Furlong is not close to being the player he was and Porter was forced to play far too many minutes. It is clear Farrell did not trust our back up 10's as has been said by many Sexton could hardly walk for the last 15 minutes and was left one the pitch. I believe the loss of Cian Healy was the difference in us wining a world cup. You might think that is an exaggeration but we had to flog Porter so much because we had no other option even when he was getting destroyed in the scrum against New Zealand. The fact that the loss of one player had much a seismic effect on our chances speaks volumes. I also think it was foolhardy to not replace some of our injured players with Healy for the quarter final. You can't keep someone in the squad in the hope he might be ok for a semi when the quarter final was such an important game. Henshaw had picked up the same niggle twice. Earls was a 36 year old winger who probably was going to play no further part in the tournament anyway as JOB had come back into fitness. James Ryan couldn't even hold his hand up after the Scotland game so I have my doubts that he could have even featured 6 days after the quarter final anyway.

I really thought this year was finally the year we would do something. I travelled over to Paris for the South Africa group game and thought so even more then. The loss to New Zealand hit me as hard as anything I've ever experienced. So much so I avoided looking or reading anything rugby related for a week after and am still avoiding any highlights of the game etc or talk about it.

Now what is the solution? Build more depth obviously. But that is not going to happen in Ireland. Look at South Africa in this year Rugby Championship. They literally split their squad in half and played completely different teams week on week in proper matches. Fast forward 2 months and they lean on that squad depth to win the world cup? Coincidence?

The argument has been done to death, but the 6 nations keeps the lights on. If we sacrificed the 6 nations every year for the change of making a world cup semi or final the IRFU would go broke. We just don't do squad rotation in the 6 nations or even November tests against the big teams because they are all "must win" games.

I just don't think the IRFU structures allow for a coach to target a World Cup. That's fine, but I think we just need to accept that and move on. No number of talented U20's are gong to make a blind bit of difference when the only action they are going to get at club level over the next few years is during the international windows, never mind breaking into the Ireland squad and even getting some proper game time (no playing against a minnow in November is not giving them experience, those game have less intensity than a decent URC game).

Maybe I'm being overly negative about the future but we seen this before with many teams at different sports and grades.

i would imagine if the NH teams dont go south then the SH teams also wouldnt come north and those games are generally pretty important for generating revenue

not that i completely disagree though. i would like to see ireland experiment a little more when touring, id also like to see games against T2 nations - maybe something similar to last years NZ tour but with games against 'smaller' nations instead of nz maori

agreed, having said that since SA is the only big tour Ireland havent won so far, i wouldnt be surprised if its all out next summer. getting one over on the rwc winners wouldnt be a bad thing either tbh

I don't think we'll suffer too much. Sexton will be tough to replace and they've identified Crowley as next up. There are lads about to be eased out of the squad but, there's great talent waiting for their chance.

I think there has to be an inevitable mental hangover from the tournament. Fortunately, we play France first and they're in the exact same boat. We've lost Sexton but they've lost Atonio who has always given us problems.

I reckon that game will be a huge moment for us. Win it, and we're talking about another Grand Slam. Lose it, and we'll have a lot of talk about rebuilding and the need to move on from certain players. There will be some significant ages in the squad by the start of next season: POM (35) , Murray (35), Kilcoyne (35), Bundee (34), Herring (34). As it stands, only Aki and Herring are signed up beyond 2024 and I'd almost be surprised at this point if the first three signed up again.

I don't think talent is the problem but mentality and leadership could well be. I will never see POM as being the most talented player in the world (although his skill set is significantly underrated) but he is incredibly combative, determined and committed. Baird is comfortably a better athlete and more powerful than POM but I never expect him to reach the levels of POM because of the difference in mentality and influence.

Not only the players, but the coaching team will come under a little scrutiny. Farrell is obviously rock solid at the moment as is Easterby. Catt's contract was only up to the RWC and there has been no mention of any replacement or new contract which is curious. I'd have thought they'd have someone lined up at this stage already unless Farrell is looking to take charge of things himself. Prendergast is the obvious choice but he's just in the door overall so I'd be surprised if he left Munster at this point in their project. Richie Murphy is also someone that has barely been mentioned and is within the system and more easily moved as well as having experience as a coach with the senior team previously.

Mick Kearney has already departed from the set up. Not influential in terms of coaching but I'm sure there's influence in terms of the camp.

The two set piece/forward coaches are potentially going to be under a little pressure after the RWC. Both line out and scrum were fairly poor right through the warm ups and the tournament. The line out in particular was fairly atrocious. POC strikes me as someone who would walk away if he felt he wasn't meeting his own standards/expectations. I think the line out will be under huge scrutiny in the 6N. It wasn't a personnel issue either. It collapsed in multiple games regardless of who was throwing/calling/jumping.

Fogarty probably has a little more leeway as the scrum got away with it at times until the NZ game and the line out malfunctions overshadowed the scrum shortcomings. We were lucky against SA where they shot themselves in the foot conceding a free kick and penalty for early shoves when they were fairly roasting us there overall.

Kpi's?