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How long until we see €2 a litre and will it push more to EV's faster?

19698100101102

Comments

  • Posts: 15,801 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Carbon tax increase goes ahead as planned, will add about 2/3 cents to a litre

    The remaining excise restoration due in Oct has been split and pushed back to Apr & Aug next year



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,561 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Far too little and far too late. But I suppose better than nothing.

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    If you really cared you could get rid of your cars.

    Nobody cares really.

    OPEC quite bullish about annual demand increasing until 2045.

    Coal production this year expected to exceed last year's record.

    Climate change is a fair accompli at this point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,561 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    @waterwelly - "If you really cared you could get rid of your cars."

    I produce far more electricity from solar PV than I use, remember? That includes driving both my cars. If the average person in the world did half of what I have done, the climate problem would have been fixed. And that was out of my free will, I didn't get any subsidies for installing any solar PV / battery or buying my electric cars.

    But you are right, most people don't care, that's why they need a tremendous kick up their hole and a big carrot to nudge them to stop burning fossil fuels and start becoming greener

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    The problem is the average person just can't do what you did.

    For example all the people from war zones to those living in tents at the Electric Picnic site can't do it.

    I've PV in myself, 9kW, and it's an absolute dream, but not every can do it.

    All our food comes mostly from fossil fuels, fertilizer, delivery, harvesting etc.

    It's really wrong to be penalising people who have no choice but to drive an ICE when the outcome will be the same anyway.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,561 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    You can buy a perfectly good 2015 Nissan Leaf for €3k. The vast majority of cars in Ireland do a daily range less than what it can do. And tbh we are beyond the point of saying ah sorry, poor people don't have enough money to buy clean cars, so let them drive for 100k miles per year in a cancerous diesel with zero financial consequences. If we did, then our children and grand children will be screwed.

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 479 ✭✭cal naughton


    Cheapest 2015 leaf on carzone is 7.5k

    The rest of your arguments have zero credibility when you consistently claim you can get a leaf for 3k.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,561 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Please pay attention before making accusations like that, I mentioned above Leaf in this thread a few pages back and I put a link up to it, asking price was €3.5k. It sold quickly.

    It is your credibility that is the problem here. Not mine. Have a look at my contributions to the thread "This week's EV bargain that I'm not buying" over the years. It is a thread I started myself, 7 years ago.


    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    There are no EV's out there for the "poor" people as you call them. If we are to make these cars we need to mine them out of the ground and ship them around the world using fossil fuels.

    Then we have aviation, I don't think any of the Irish fans in Paris really care about carbon emissions.

    Then we have agriculture. I like my steak, not giving that up to reduce cattle numbers.

    Then there's Santa, all shipped in from China made from plastic derived from fossil fuels. Can't see anybody wanting to cancel Santa.

    I've said it already coal production is increasing. OPEC are bullish.

    A few EV's on dondeal won't change the outcome here.



  • Posts: 15,801 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'm not sure whataboutery is a strong position to argue from, regardless of the topic



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 479 ✭✭cal naughton


    That Leaf was the exception rather than the norm.It had 350km done so that's why it was being given away for 3.5k.

    My point stands 2015 leaf's are going for double what you have claimed.

    Reply to me when you see 2015 leafs being consistently sold for 3k.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,561 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Something consistently sold for a certain value by definition isn't a bargain 😉

    For anyone who wants to stop moaning and whinging about how expensive everything is and that there is nothing we all can do about climate change, and wants to make a positive change in their life, keep a close look at the above thread. Some great bargains posted in it in the last few months. For every budget there is a bargain EV. The above Leaf I posted has a cheaper total cost of ownership than any diesel banger someone would give you for free.

    There are currently 10 EVs on DoneDeal with asking prices of €5k or less.

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    You really think 10 EV's on dondeal will change the course of history.

    You are deluded.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,561 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Ah sure stick your head in the sand. Nothing anyone can do right? Or get off your arse and try and make a difference. Hopefully there aren't too many of you, or indeed the world will be fukced for the generations that come after us.

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    Well I've installed panels. As an investment though. Its great tech.

    But it won't change the outcome, same as 10 second hand EV's on donedeal won't change it.

    I've pointed out to you several times that global coal production is increasing. OPEC are expecting growth in consumption to 2045.

    There's really no stopping climate change at this point. Nothing you or I do will alter it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,357 ✭✭✭OfflerCrocGod


    We can't stop it but we can change the curve. As for OPEC expecting oil consumption growth until 2045... I think I'll take that with a grain of salt. At a certain point there will be an inflection point. I'd be amazed if it took over 20 years. Solar/wind/EVs/batteries/new nuclear tech will combine to push down consumption before then if I had to guess.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,561 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    We've already got critical speed / mass. This will be very quick now. Even in conservative Ireland, fully electric cars outsold petrols, (plug in) hybrids and diesels last month for the very first time. In just another few years time almost nobody will buy new cars with combustion engines. There is no need for any ban in 2030 or 2035, people will have switched way before then

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    It's pointless window dressing though.

    All we are doing is freeing up oil for other countries to use more of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60,561 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    You don't seem to understand this global transition. The likes of China is far ahead of Europe and the USA in terms of adoption of renewable electricity and electric cars. Even if climate change wasn't a factor, this transition would go ahead anyway.

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,918 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    China generated over 5,000TWh of electricity from coal last year, up from 2,700TWh in 2008. Their share of renewables has increased 4x in the same time, but their use of coal is setting new high records due to ever increasing demand.

    That's quite a lot of coal.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,061 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Unkept- I don’t mean this in a bad way- but how much did that setup of two EVS plus enough solar panels and I presume a battery in the house, cost you?

    How much debt did you take on for that setup?

    Do you think most people would have access to that debt? Do you think “the average person in the world” could do “half of what you’ve done”?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,007 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    No need for carbon tax/ vrt etc incentives so, just let the market take it's course....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    What's your 10 year global forecast for coal, oil and gas consumption please?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    Exactly. Electric driving will suit people with a certain profile, PV, own driveway etc.

    But for people in apartments etc. it's ICE all day long if the taxation / incentive profile was the same.



  • Posts: 15,801 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That will come in time. We've already seen the removal of grants for hybrids, and the pairing back of grants for EV's.

    As the %'s creep higher, there will no longer be a need to incentivize the switch.

    Hell the price of petrol/diesel alone is as big of an incentive as you're likely to see



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,007 ✭✭✭Widdensushi




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    Duty and vat must be above €1/litte.

    Level the playing field and who will be switching?

    We are engaging in costly windowdressing here.

    Perfectly fine ICE cars will be scrapped and replaced with freshly mined EV's.



  • Posts: 15,801 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Correct

    Level the playing field and who will be switching?

    Won't happen. The state has been taxing fossil fuels for decades and there is no indication that is going to change. Well it will change in that they will increase the taxation at higher and higher rates

    Perfectly fine ICE cars will be scrapped and replaced with freshly mined EV's.

    Any "perfectly fine ICE cars" that are traded in for EV's will simply be sold on again and driven until its no longer viable to keep running, same as every other car. Only a moron would scrap a "perfectly fine ICE".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    But you said there won't be a need to incentivise a switch.

    Now you are admitting it's higher and higher taxes on ICE's that will keep the switch going.

    I've seen perfectly fine ICE's scrapped in the past, when the motor tax on big 2.0+ engines was around €1000.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,686 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    I can't speak for Unkel but here's my setup.

    EVs:

    2011 Nissan Leaf - Cost 2.5k, bought for cash, no debt

    2023 Ora Funky Car - Cost 34k, 10k cash deposit, rest financed at approx 300 p/m on approx 3.5% interest (promo, that rate is no longer available)

    2022 Tesla Model 3 - Cost 54k, 5k cash deposit + some cash from trade in of Model X, remainder financed at 850 p/m at approx 3% interest

    Home Solar:

    8.2kWp solar panels, 6kW solis inverter cost 15k all in, bought for cash with no debt

    Home storage:

    20kWh of Dyness batteries - bought for 10k for cash, bad deal, have agreed to trade these on with a loss of 50% due to market prices dropping and me overpaying at the time

    45kWh of pylontech batteries - bought for 8.5k cash on a a discount pallet deal. Could have gone cheaper with cells etc from aliexpress but had prior bad experiences and didnt fancy explaining to the mrs the amount of wiring etc.

    Other storage and stuff, odds and ends, homemade lead acid storage with UPSs, cabling, boxes, equipment etc, etc, approx 2k all in, all bought for cash.

    So the only debt I have is for the cars, which we can easily afford and is less than our fuel bill used to be.

    My next plan is for a lot more panels, this would be an investment with short ROI due to the FIT payment and my upcoming RM108 meter.

    The average person could buy a used EV and install 5-6kWp of solar with a 5kW inverter and 5kWh battery to minimise their bills and emissions, for a heck of a lot less than I spent.



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