Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Gatling · 06-10-2023 08:41AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121199765#Comment_121199765

Most of the areas occupied have large civilian populations , even areas on the front lines today contain civilian populations , bakmuth last year people were found living in homes despite heavy artillery strikes from both sides going back and forth

Field east · 06-10-2023 08:47AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200022#Comment_121200022

Good idea in principal. I would not think it right that FIFA should get involved in any way. BUT, BUT, BUT , for example , Turkey , Saudi Arabia , etc, could quietly ‘negotiate ‘a deal that ‘ swaps Russia players safe passage /safe return back to Russia on the condition that FOUR MORE TIMES UKr children than there are Ru players are returned to UKr one month BEFORE the tournament starts. The UN should be involved to ensure that the UKr children were ‘ GENUINELLY’ kidnapped and BeFORE A certain date - otherwise Ru could kidnap the required number shortly before the tournament starts

Gatling · 06-10-2023 10:05AM

You don't want FIFA or football in general getting involved in Ukraine or any other conflicts with tit for tat detaining players or teams to be swapped for civilians , that would get messy very quickly

Hande hoche! · 06-10-2023 10:06AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200022#Comment_121200022

They might not want to go home. Seek asylum, avoid being cannon fodder for the future offensives.

zv2 · 06-10-2023 10:42AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121199286#Comment_121199286

I'd be from the napalm school of thought meself. A bit old fashioned but sure...

rogber · 06-10-2023 10:55AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121199286#Comment_121199286

Nice idea but it's obviously never going to happen

macraignil · 06-10-2023 11:19AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200037#Comment_121200037

Any evidence you would like to share that these areas still have a "large" civilian population?

Paddigol · 06-10-2023 11:46AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200638#Comment_121200638

What areas are you referencing and what would you consider "large"?

Danzy · 06-10-2023 11:50AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200638#Comment_121200638

As of the Summer the Ukrainian ombudsman said there was 13 million under occupation/on the front line. The Oblasts occupied were among the highest population densities in Ukraine.

Off the top of my head there are about 9mn Ukrainians in Western Europe now and probably as many internally.

If the 9mn, mostly women and children, in Western Europe don't go home then Ukraine is finished as a country, regardless of how well the war goes.

The longer it drags on the more of some kind of victory comes closer for Russia, that being holding most of what they have, Ukraine's long term future as even a barely functional State, denied, even if Russia itself slips back to 3rd world status.

The trickle of arms to Ukraine is going to end up a long term problem for the West.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-under-occupation-face-deportation-loss-of-property-after-putins-new-order/

zv2 · 06-10-2023 12:05PM

Crimea

https://twitter.com/MotLaHai/status/1710245259375247458

TheRepentent · 06-10-2023 12:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121199307#Comment_121199307

wrapped in a gay pride scarf

zv2 · 06-10-2023 12:23PM

Russians go sightseeing

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1710253641951559774

jmreire · 06-10-2023 01:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200638#Comment_121200638

You would be very surprised by the nr's of civilians living in the bombed and burnt out husks of bombed Cities. In the rebel held areas of Damascus, thousands of citizens survived, as did thousands in Grozny and many other cities too. Leningrad was a case in point where people survived for more than 2 years. Survival is the strongest instinct of them all, and especially when there are no choices.

zv2 · 06-10-2023 03:05PM

Destroyed Russian artillery

Gatling · 06-10-2023 03:15PM

Looks like Russia has shot down its own aircraft for the 5th time recently....

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1710293101376352445?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1710290364819554587?s=20

I'm sure there will be demands for evidence ✈️

TheValeyard · 06-10-2023 03:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201802#Comment_121201802

The AA are probably getting a lot of flak for letting drones and missiles through, say they panicked.

More of this please!!

Wibbs · 06-10-2023 03:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200774#Comment_121200774

The singular advantage an autocrat like putin has is he can wait out the democracies of the west. He also heavily controls the home narrative. Democracies are sensitive to changes in public moods, even if it's just a general fatigue about the war and they're exposed to far more narratives. When people start to blame inflation etc on the war(and putin has been pushing this since early on for obvious reasons), that fatigue will grow. The Kremlin can leave that on the long finger for their own people for far longer and have more methods to quieten it down.

Russia is also a major exporter of food and energy so Russians won't go cold or hungry anytime soon(similar sanctions on somewhere like China would have really hurt on those two scores). While their gas exports (to Europe, majority of their previous market)have fallen off a cliff, they're still bringing enough in from oil to finance the war, at least currently. Outside the major urban centres Russians live far more frugal lives than the average say German. I'd be willing to bet a fair chunk of their deeply rural population barely noticed there's a war on(unless their non pale sons were called up).

As it stands Ukraine is screwed for the currently foreseeable because of Russia. Their agri sector is buggered, industry what there was of it, ditto and they've had a huge number of people leave westward and eastward when they were already facing a Russia style demographic purgatory. That's before the numbers killed and crippled by Russia. For over a year my understandably negative view was that Russia would 'keep' Donbas, Crimea wasn't even on the table, but the part up for grabs was the land bridge between the two. Sadly unless there's a massive upset I fear they'll hang onto that too.

Russia's next move? Odessa is major thing and goal for them and always has been. I could see them consolidate the front they have with the usual minefields and use the sheer numbers advantage of men and materiel they have over Ukraine to make a push there.

Russia's future? Cold war 2. Shut out and off from "The West", encouraging contact with the usual corrupt types in the developing world, while China and India will play both sides(wisely for their nations). In the parts of Ukraine they hold? They're facing decades of sectarian conflict even though they will try to in essence genocide Ukrainian loyalists and plant as many Russians they can and generations of Ukrainians that hate them. They claim Ukraine doesn't exist as a separate nation and people, but like all imperialist fcukwits with no sense of history or self awareness, they've only gone and created the Ukrainian people and nation with this war.

Gatling · 06-10-2023 03:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201878#Comment_121201878

Saves Ukraines air defences too

rogber · 06-10-2023 04:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201934#Comment_121201934

Yes quite a few of us predicted this grinding stalemate a year ago and that neither side would have the capacity to achieve outright victory. Sadly it's looking more and more likely and the hardcore posters predicting the ever imminent collapse of all Russian defences and Crimean beach party before end of 2024 seem to have completely disappeared.

It's a sad state and I've always held the only true hope is for Putin to be ousted from within. Right now that doesn't look likely either, but hope dies last...

Azza · 06-10-2023 04:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201934#Comment_121201934

I really can't see Russia having the capability in the short to medium term of getting anywhere near Odessa. They would have to get across the Dnieper River and Ukraine control the other bank which has the more advantageous high ground than the side Russia holds. The always unlikely amphibious attack option by the Black Sea Fleet is now absolutely a non runner for the Russian's considering the losses the Black Sea Fleet has sustained. The minefields are also a double edged sword for Russia, as it would inhibit their ability to attack northwards from anywhere in the land bridge. That would leave the Donbass as the most feasible/practical objective but even that's a big ask for Russia as I don't think they have the sheer manpower and material to overwhelm Ukraine, not without another wave of mobilization.

Virgil° · 06-10-2023 05:36PM

It took the more capable Wagner a year and tens of thousands of death just to take Bakhmut city with 70k pop. They couldn't take Odessa(pop 1mil) when they had the element of surprise and a 10:1 artillery advantage and Ukraine had none of the tech they do now.

The regular Russian military has failed to take much of anything since the beginning of the war. They've been doing ok'ish on defence so far. But that's about all they've shown they can do. I think the days of Russia making any more serious territorial gains has passed. Odessa is fantasy at this stage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qmd-QG7Ve0E

I've been subscribing to this guys ideas for a while now. Seems like a reasonable synopsis.

Danzy · 06-10-2023 05:56PM

I can't see them taking Odessa but holding most of what they have is now a distinctive possibility.

Unless the West becomes serious about it and who can see that happening.

The next offensive will be up against a more dug in, greater numbers.

This one might keep going at a low tempo, focused on very specific targets but the weather will bring the main thrusts to an end. Hopefully sheer determination and favourable conditions allow more than expected.

Gatling · 06-10-2023 05:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121202062#Comment_121202062

Odessa is completely off the table for the Russians , I believe it did heavily feature in there original plans if they succeeded in taken Odessa ealy on in the war that would have given them a foothold to attack Moldova,but more importantly cut off Ukrainian access to the blacksea ,it would take huge resources now in men ,boats and aircraft to launch any meaningful assault let alone hold it ,

Seanmadradubh · 06-10-2023 06:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201994#Comment_121201994

Thanks for the laugh.

weisses · 06-10-2023 08:03PM

"

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121201878#Comment_121201878

I see what you did there 😏

Jinglejangle69 · 06-10-2023 08:37PM

20,000 Wagners transferred to Bakhmut from Africa, Russias army really can’t do anything by themselves

briany · 06-10-2023 08:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121203073#Comment_121203073

Between the miserable time they had trying to capture Bakhmut in the first place and their leader's plane blowing up over Moscow, how motivated would your average Wagner merc be to really fight in Ukraine? They seemed pretty over the whole sorry business when Putin offered to let them return to Africa. I know that they're to be absorbed into the regular Russian military structure, but I thought the point of being a mercenary was that you weren't fighting on ideological grounds so much as you were out to make money. Surely the risk/reward is bigger in Africa where you can chew through poorly-armed rebel militias rather than a NATO-backed Ukrainian army.

Danzy · 06-10-2023 09:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121202574#Comment_121202574

It's probably nearer to what will happen though.

Denial is not just a river, short changing Ukrainian on what it needed was always going to be Risky.

The price of victory now will be significantly higher, the only chance Russia had once the Red Army failed in the first few months was to hold on, it has been allowed do that.

Will there be another 150k Russian soldiers in the occupied areas by next May, may be a lot more and the lads there now have gained a lot of combat experience.

They just have to hold it.

FishOnABike · 06-10-2023 09:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121203073#Comment_121203073

Is this referring to last Spring? I can't find anything more recent suggesting any Wagners transferred to Bakhmut. Do you have a source / reference?

macraignil · 06-10-2023 09:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121203184#Comment_121203184

Not sure I agree with putin's troops being called the red army, which was the title given to the forces of the Soviet Union which no longer exists. I don't agree that a stalemate is probably nearer what will happen in Ukraine as I don't think there will be any time limit on the willingness of Ukraine to free themselves from being relentlessly attacked by putin's terrorists. The supporters of Ukraine might have been able to send more but have sent a lot and even if there was more equipment in Ukrainian hands now would they have had enough highly trained troops and maintenance technicians to keep NATO equipment running to expel putin's troops from their territory this year? Who honestly believed in a fast victory for Ukraine?

I suspect the bravado about a Crimea beach party for Ukraine in the summer just gone was more to suck more of putin's forces into the areas of the occupied territories where they could be targeted and eliminated more easily and Ukraine knows they need to break putin's war machine if they are to ever see peace and they continue to make progress in doing this.

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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