Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

SF has plenty of policies, and will likely get a chance to exercise them after the next GE.

I suppose we'll both find out in 2025

There’s a big difference between a policy and a 30 second media clip or sound bite.

About 13k at last count which excludes

-the 23k of international refugees

-people coach surfing etc.

So in total you are talking about 35-40k people where the majority will be single individuals. That number would mushroom if social housing was easily available and wasn’t elsewhere in Europe.

Just to be clear this isn’t a post on immigration it just pointing out that any capacity created by building more social housing is unlikely to free up private rental accommodation unless the overall number of properties being built increases. Yes we badly need more social housing but this is needed in addition to what is already being built.

Its pushing the prices up think if they were not there houses would have to drop to a level that people could afford the price and the proof from the UK show these schemes push up prices, now imagine using that money to buy modular homes and take our poor and refugees out of the equation for the rest of the property market. When help to buy came in prices jumped by roughly the amount on offer. Why do landlords need incentivizing ?? They have 2 properties if its not working sell one and they still have one and let someone buy it from them.. Someone from our population still gets to live in it regardless of if they have bought it and It should not be up to private landlords to provide housing for people. So in real terms yes someone loses a rental but someone can buy it so its a zero sum game.

we all know your belief that we have to much housing and I’m not going near that and giving you the platform your looking for.

Yet again you put words in my mouth in an effort to get your platform. You have your own active thread for that.

nowhere did i say there were no solutions or justification in spending 4bn in the manor we currently do. I am just pointing out that building the same no of properties and just increasing social housing and reducing private builds is only moving the existing issues from one cohort to another and doesn’t solve the issue.

I think the slowdown in commercial will spread to residential. These rate hikes will cool the jets of the investment funds

Need projects ready to go if this occurs.

It is also putting (or should be) the kybosh on demand but watch for 2nd hand properties getting gov schemes chucked at them and the existing ones having more cash 40k FTBs and the likes and if that don't work I reckon they will up the lending limits again.

There are 10’s of thousands units with planning permission approved and not started because even at existing prices it’s not economically viable till prices increase by 15-25%. I know it’s crazy and a disgrace that they will not be built for at least 5-10 years (if ever). The only way to counteract this is a use it or loose it policy with planning revoked and land rezoned to agriculture etc for the underlying beneficial owners.

This stops them setting up new company to get around it and leaves them with two options sell land at a discount to someone that builds or build at reduced profit margin before planning is revoked and value of land plummets.

Modular homes wont get planning permission at scale. They wont be built in large towns and cities, where homes are needed. Because they wont get planning permission.

A landlord doesnt need to sell their property. They can hold it. Its not a zero sum game.

And every home a landlord removes from the rental market is one less home available to a growing population.

The repercussion is increased homelessness.

We need Landlords to stay in the market, especially when the govt buids f**k all social homes themselves.

There is effectivley no supply of rental property other than what is delivered by the private landlord.

If the govt actually built their own properties we could get tough on landlords.

But they don't. So we can't.

Asking prices are often guide price. I find given how long Ive been looking I can tell fairly easily now if something is priced low to get bidders in. I still personally would not do 50k jump bid as its not in me but I have been bidding on plenty of houses where I wish I had given where price ended up. Also if it is a house with lots of bidders it is likely a good few will pay what its worth but to decide who gets it means someone usually has to pay that bit more. Look at recent stats on volume and value of first time buyer mortgages...way up over last year despite rate rises. All chasing little supply and running away from high rents. Prices remain strong as result with exception of doer uppers maybe

Modular is not cost competitive in this country - unless its timber framed modular which do not last in this climate.

The maintenance costs will increase and increase over time - but thats a problem for 40 years from now so nobody cares

Indeed.

Another headwind that the resi sector faces.

Some people continie to believe thst SF will just magically move through the gears and enable construction of 60k+ homes from year 1 onwards.

It isnt going to happen and how sorry the youth will be when they realise they have gained no extra homes and have lost good job opportunities at home to boot.

As SF go after the multinationals and highearners with increased taxation and the targeted groups just move country.

Net result is fewer homes and fewer good employment prospects for everyone, including the 20 somethings.

Do you have any examples where modular homes have been built at scale in Dublin or other high price areas?