Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

FFG dont have a plan to deliver social housing directly. That is clear. But there is no evidence to say SF will do anything differently.

FFG are standing over a fair number of housing delivery at 30k, and again, there is no evidence that SF will even match the 30k, let alone beat it.

The liklehood is that SF wont get in to power anyway, as they will need FF to form a govt.

As long as FFG close ranks on them again, the current govt will be returned - with the Greens probably replaced by indies/Soc Dems as the third leg.

30k ish new homes over the next few years, possibly rising to 40k is as good as we will get for the next 5 years or so I would say.

Jim Powers is essentially the chief lobbyist for large builders in this country, so his views are inherently biased. Planning reform undoubtedly needs to happen, but its the construction industry leading the push to make judicial reviews against planning decisions more difficult.

Also when you say commercial development, are you actually referring to a subset of commercial being offices (and possibly retail?). Commercial itself is quite broad and includes others like pharma, logistics, data centre, education, hotels, medical etc. all of which are still quote strong.

SF's policy documents state they will very much do things differently. "Theres no evidence that SF will even match the 30k" is based on... what? Given they've never been in power? At present the only definitive evidence that we have is that FF&FG are either unwilling, or unable, to solve the housing crisis after over 12 years in power.

"a far number of housing delivery" is not an accurate way of describing 30k units per year, as as been discussed in this thread many, many times. We need 35k new housing units a year simply to hold the 100k population increase we've had every year now for multiple years. To account for existing unit replacement, and making a dent in the housing crisis, we'd need 60k+.

SF are polling at almost the same as FF&FG combined according to today's Irish Times, and rising. They're the massive favourites to be in power come 2024 or 2025 with every bookie, and according to every political analyst. We're going to find out what they can do very soon.

In the mid 2010s we were far from bankrupt as a country. By 2015 the Irish economy was very much back on track. HAP became operational in 2017, we could, and should, have been building social housing instead by that stage. As has now been proven.

There were TDs in the Dail, and think tanks, asking questions about the brewing housing crisis in social housing as early as 2014, so it very much was a problem that was visible in 2016.

"What we are currently experiencing is a rental and social housing crisis especially in Dublin" according to DNG of all people, back in 2015. http://pdf.dng.ie/pdf/DNG-Paper-Ireland-AHousingCrisisNov2015.pdf

For what it's worth the State does not want council housing because of the problems associated with providing it. How many council tenants are in arrears with their rents which are substantially below market rate? How maxny have been evicted?

Why do you think the housing of these people have been outsourced to approved housing bodies and the private sector?

I always find it funny how people think there is some conspiracy to inflate property prices. A property only has a value when it comes to selling it.

If there is a massive social housing building spree are we going to return to purely council estates? If there is anti social issues/rent arrears how will these be dealt with? Remember by and large these are the very members of the voting public who would vote SF.

They are not polling at a rate to form a majority govt. They still need FF.

There is no evidence to say SF can deliver more than 30k. They are unproven, but you seem to think its a given that they will deliver 60k or so per year.

I can all but assure you. They wont.

As I say, I think its largely a moot point, as long as FF hold their stance and dont let them in.

No, you're not understanding the problem at all. As things currently stand the Irish state is paying the rent of close to 60,000 households on HAP, keeping them in the private rental market. The state is also signing long term leases for entire apartment blocks that are already completed, to use for social housing, taking those apartments out of the private rental market. Both of these measures drastically reduce the supply of homes in the private rental market, and are being done because FG in particular have an ideological opposition to building social housing.

If the state instead had a large scale social housing construction program, as it has had in past decades, every household moved into a social house when it gets built by the state would be one less in the private rental market.

More social housing built by the state = fewer people in the private rental market = more housing supply in the private rental market for actual tax payers = a more functional rental market, is the fairly simple equation.

The workers that we will import......as soon as we find a place for them to rent!

An interesting question. I think times have changed considerably. Families are much much smaller. It would be interesting to try again

I heard Pearse Doherty speak at the DEW last week. This what he said:

See page 19 for housing.

He mentioned two tools:

using stamp duty changes to discourage construction of commercial property, so as to divert labour and capital to residential construction

he mentioned "emergency measures" twice, as in like the fast response to COVID.

I think the conspiracy is theory is that the government is spending 4 billion to help solve the housing issue.

The truth is that every measure introduced by government is inflationary. Imagine if most of that money was spent on new supply rather than stoking existing demand

You have picked a point and tried to use it out of context. The vast majority of people own a single property and it is not an investment. It is a place to live. By and large the vast majority of people who purchase a property to live in will maybe move two or three times throughout their life.

Most of the social housing demand also is for 2 beds, 1 beds, 3s and 4s, in that order. An example of family size demographics.

As for councils, I'd be very worried about their ability to deliver and manage property sensibly.

We need a much larger AHB sector and have done so for a number of years. Because of poor housing policy (hello FFG again) we are playing catch up.