Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Back when we imported thousands of Eastern European builders.

These lads have all gone home, now Poland has a growth rate comparable to Ireland, and soon while cities in Ukraine will need to be rebuilt.

No one is coming to Ireland to pay massive cost of living and receive labourers wages.

Timothy Geithner (Obama's treasury secretary), the ECB and the Irish Gov insisted on paying back bondholders in full as the Irish government had signed us all up to that path. The UK the IMF, Vincent Browne and the village of Ballyhea in North Cork argued for relief

If you want to know what dread is, try an ffg government with eye-watering national debt and a blank cheque book pumping a property bubble. The day the IMF left was a sorry day for Irish people, in particular the generations to come.

Is that context enough for you?

Have they even been asked. You look at the likes of Oz or Dubai they are actively out recruiting our teachers, guards and nurses has anyone on our side gone and asked the question in other countries with a decent offer? I don't think they have. The one contradiction in your argument is we have a nett migration of people coming into the country (so we cannot be the sh1thole you paint us out to be) surely this inflow needs to be streamlined and people with skills that match our shortages should be welcomed with open arms and have them using their skills and those who offer naught and will be sitting on the dole for years or without any valid papers should be told to go back home. Also labourers wages are actually quite high here at the minute. I mean the gov can house every Tom, Dick Harrokavich who needs housing, could there not be a scheme of free housing for builders coming in from a different country for say 3-5 years who come to work here get them building enough modular homes to meet the current demand - problem solved it may cost money but we have a50Billion windfall in corpo tax coming over the next 5 years.

Ireland is not a sh*thole. Far from it, its an excellent country if you own a house and have your health, and the net migration we have is not for construction

And yes, the Irish govt has promoted Ireland abroad and gotten a poor response.

They have an action plan here https://www.gov.ie/pdf/?file=https://assets.gov.ie/268017/df0ab549-7e67-48e4-b551-ad6eb59048bc.pdf#page=null

The gist is that Ireland needs 50k builders and no one wants to do it.

Are the issues not present today with full employment?

SF has plenty of policies, and will likely get a chance to exercise them after the next GE.

I suppose we'll both find out in 2025

There’s a big difference between a policy and a 30 second media clip or sound bite.

About 13k at last count which excludes

-the 23k of international refugees

-people coach surfing etc.

So in total you are talking about 35-40k people where the majority will be single individuals. That number would mushroom if social housing was easily available and wasn’t elsewhere in Europe.

Just to be clear this isn’t a post on immigration it just pointing out that any capacity created by building more social housing is unlikely to free up private rental accommodation unless the overall number of properties being built increases. Yes we badly need more social housing but this is needed in addition to what is already being built.

Its pushing the prices up think if they were not there houses would have to drop to a level that people could afford the price and the proof from the UK show these schemes push up prices, now imagine using that money to buy modular homes and take our poor and refugees out of the equation for the rest of the property market. When help to buy came in prices jumped by roughly the amount on offer. Why do landlords need incentivizing ?? They have 2 properties if its not working sell one and they still have one and let someone buy it from them.. Someone from our population still gets to live in it regardless of if they have bought it and It should not be up to private landlords to provide housing for people. So in real terms yes someone loses a rental but someone can buy it so its a zero sum game.

we all know your belief that we have to much housing and I’m not going near that and giving you the platform your looking for.

Yet again you put words in my mouth in an effort to get your platform. You have your own active thread for that.

nowhere did i say there were no solutions or justification in spending 4bn in the manor we currently do. I am just pointing out that building the same no of properties and just increasing social housing and reducing private builds is only moving the existing issues from one cohort to another and doesn’t solve the issue.

I think the slowdown in commercial will spread to residential. These rate hikes will cool the jets of the investment funds

Need projects ready to go if this occurs.

It is also putting (or should be) the kybosh on demand but watch for 2nd hand properties getting gov schemes chucked at them and the existing ones having more cash 40k FTBs and the likes and if that don't work I reckon they will up the lending limits again.

There are 10’s of thousands units with planning permission approved and not started because even at existing prices it’s not economically viable till prices increase by 15-25%. I know it’s crazy and a disgrace that they will not be built for at least 5-10 years (if ever). The only way to counteract this is a use it or loose it policy with planning revoked and land rezoned to agriculture etc for the underlying beneficial owners.

This stops them setting up new company to get around it and leaves them with two options sell land at a discount to someone that builds or build at reduced profit margin before planning is revoked and value of land plummets.