Russia - threadbanned users in OP

pcardin · 21-08-2023 11:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006804#Comment_121006804

people will...you are only 5 posts in and have not said yet anything bar trolling and smart comments. Be patient

pcardin · 21-08-2023 12:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006840#Comment_121006840

go to my post, there is a flag button. click on that and then whine about me while another ruSSian rocket is hitting another hospital, theatre, shopping mall, or any other 'vital military object' in Ukraine. And if your timing is right, both things could happen at the same time.

Dohnjoe · 21-08-2023 12:01PM

As a reminder.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1693287417090879841

pcardin · 21-08-2023 12:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006903#Comment_121006903

are you confused lad?

pcardin · 21-08-2023 12:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006940#Comment_121006940

you can if you want, or not if you don't. Why would I care? Now...back to discussions.

21-08-2023 12:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006693#Comment_121006693

S-300 and S-400 are capable of shooting down a 4th gen fighter from a considerable distance, Russia have tonnes of them. They have a number of 220km kills already with the older S-300, these are world-records. They can put them inside the Russian border - where Ukraine are not allowed to attack with Western weapons - and easily shoot down any F-16 within a range of several hundred km. That limits what Ukraine can actually do (where they can go) with an F-16, and it only gets worse for them if they succeed in pushing the front-line East.

The MiG-31 is equipped with a powerful look-down radar and R-37 missiles with a range of 400km. The F-16 has no missiles with a comparable range, there is nothing even close in Western arsenals. Russia fly a high patrol just within their border, quite safe from any threat, and make mincemeat of any aircraft within range. They have been using these tactics successfully in Ukraine already.

From a 25-year US airforce veteran:

https://www.businessinsider.com/former-f-16-pilot-aircraft-no-fighting-chance-over-ukraine-2023-5?r=US&IR=T

he wouldn't want to fly missions over Ukraine right now, saying that the aircraft can't outmatch Russia's air-defense systems.

Fourth-generation fighters "have no business in a modern-day battlefield.

The capable SAM systems "have proven extremely lethal" against Ukrainian aircraft and are the "primary killer" of Ukrainian jets, helicopters, and drones, the report notes.

Fourth- and fourth-plus-generation fighter jets — like the F-16 — that lack stealth features are "completely outmatched in high-threat environments" because of advanced air-defense systems like Russia's S-400

maebee · 21-08-2023 12:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006804#Comment_121006804

Hello @ AerLingus747

Igotadose · 21-08-2023 12:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006671#Comment_121006671

Tell that to the Uighyurs and Tibetans.

roosterman71 · 21-08-2023 12:44PM

Why the sudden worry on the F-16s being shot down? Are Ukraine not flying as it is with different aircraft? How many of those are being taken down? Would the F-16s not be better than what's currently there?

Wolf359f · 21-08-2023 12:46PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121007051#Comment_121007051

Good in theory if Ukraine are dumb enough to fly at 30k feet towards the border.

They would be flying fast and low which massively reduces the radar range of Russian SAM sites.

Also Ukraine has been attacking Russian SAM sites based within Russia with western supplied HARM missiles for months now.

Have Russia been fielding MIG-31's in an Air to Air role at all in this war? Anytime they are mentioned is for launching Kinzhal missiles.

astrofool · 21-08-2023 12:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121007120#Comment_121007120

A lot of this is step by step (and the F-16 is better than what they have), get the pilots trained on NATO systems and craft and then start supplying later generation as well. At some point Ukraine will be getting F-35 but it could be post conflict and as a NATO member.

Again, russia is powerless to stop the flow of better and better weapons to Ukraine.

Virgil° · 21-08-2023 12:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121007120#Comment_121007120

It's very hard to imagine that the US, Denmark and the Netherlands would be handing over a few squadrons of extremely expensive aircraft, training the pilots, setting up runways and maintenance if they believed these things are just gonna be shot down in short order. Maybe some posters on here need to inform the Ukrainian military that they're making a huge mistake?

I'm certain some will be lost. It's a war. But there's an almost unlimited supply of them in the west. Once the pilots are there and logistics train set up, what are Russia going to do? They haven't been able to suppress Ukraines ancient airforce so far. How is that going to change?

21-08-2023 01:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121007127#Comment_121007127

Flying low and fast nullifies the superior sensors of the F-16. Its also undesirable from a combat perspective for energy reasons - a missile shooting down from a high & fast jet has more energy than a missile shooting up from a slow & low F-16. Combined with the inherent range advantage that Russia already has, the F-16 will lose in these circumstances.

The obvious solution is don't go close to any threats, which is what they will do. But it limits what use they can be.

Russia have been using the MiG-31 as described above. Patrolling inside their border and making long-range kills with the R-37M. See page 18

I would need to see sources on Ukraine attacking inside Russia with Western missiles. I don't believe it to be the case.

threeball · 21-08-2023 01:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006526#Comment_121006526

F16s won't be going there to Dogfight Russian aircraft. Their main usefullness is to get full utilisation of the HARM anti radar missiles that Ukraine currently fire but in a vastly reduced capability mode in order to take out Russian radar. Taking out 1 Russian radar is worth taking out 5 BUK or other SAM systems or even a MIG as without the radar the rest are basically blind and open to not only getting taken out personally but also being unable to protect whatever they were set up to protect. For example, take out the right radars round Mariupol and Crimea and the Kerch bridge is basically toast. Stick up a KA52 without adequate radar support and they're toast too.

21-08-2023 01:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121007339#Comment_121007339

This war is not being fought on paper. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian casualties are testament to the fact that Russia have some offensive capabilities.

Sitting on your arse in safety thousands of miles away and saying haha those Russians have no capability... apart from being stupid it's insulting to Ukraine. If Russia completely suck at everything then it doesn't say much about Ukraine that Russia invaded (which requires superiority), took 20% of their land, destroyed most of their best equipment and they're still there 18 months later despite Ukraine being materially (and otherwise) assisted by the best militaries in the world.

Oh yeah but they totally suck, fight with shovels etc and to say otherwise is "drinking the cool-aid". Incredible indeed 🙄

Retr0gamer · 21-08-2023 01:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006526#Comment_121006526

They won't be operating deep in enemy territory I imagine. I'd say they will be delivering precision strikes from behind the ukrainian front and ensuring that the KA-52's either aren't being used anymore or deleting any the Russians are stupid enough to send out. I imagine any MiG-31's will be exposed to SAM fire themselves if they try to engage.

The JAS-39's don't seem to be far off either.

pcardin · 21-08-2023 01:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121007339#Comment_121007339

on paper and in cartoons

Yeah_Right · 21-08-2023 02:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121007492#Comment_121007492

You ok? You seem a bit upset. Is it because Russia is losing and Ukraine is getting better equipment? It's ok. It'll be over soon and you can tell us how Russia actually won the war.

fly_agaric · 21-08-2023 02:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121007051#Comment_121007051

I am not a military tech geek so won't get into stats and (publically available or guessed) performance and capability of weapons.

As far as I know from paying attention daily to coverage of the war, Russia's air defence and Russia's airforce has not yet destroyed all of Ukraine's small airforce (since supplemented with donations of E. European Soviet aircraft), despite having this better equipment from day 1 (they had more of it then I expect) and a huge numerical advantage.

I think they are therefore unlikely to easily shoot down all the donated F16s once Ukraine does whatever it is doing to keep its current airforce flying.

I expect this aircraft and weapons it can carry will be an upgrade for the Ukrainian airforce and cause a lot more trouble for Russia in Ukraine, once there are a decent number of them operating (hopefully that will happen some time next year). They are a weapon that I think has been specifically named by the Russian spokes~~people~~creatures?! as "escalatory", so that is a good sign in my view.

I don't doubt US/NATO pilots would not like to be operating in Ukraine, and it is very dangerous. Very few of them (if any?) have gone up against what the Ukrainian pilots must be facing.

edit: I suppose I am kind of guided by Ukraine here. They are still looking to get them (or some kind of Western aircraft), think they will help, and at this stage (again over 1 year into the war) they must have idea what the logistics burdens, training, personnel requirements etc. will be for their military to run them, and what use they can put them to.

Manic Moran · 21-08-2023 03:02PM

I'm also in the camp that I don't see F-16s being much other than an incremental add.

There is a bit of a misunderstanding on the application of modern air power. After all, movies love to show the traditional close air support operation, where a JTAC gets on the radio to aid troops in contact. In actuality, the US Air Force allocates something under 5% of its capability to such things (Categorized as dynamic targeting), which can these days be normally better done more rapidly with artillery or other ground-based systems. Even attack helicopters don't like 'over the shoulder' engagements any more, preferring to conduct "attacks out of contact", away from the battle.

Instead, targeting is normally conducted starting several ATO cycles out. i.e. 3-4 days, with nomination of high payoff targets. It takes that long to assess the threats to the mission and aggregate a package. Be it jammers, airborne warning, SEAD, tankers, whatever is necessary to safely get in, drop payload, and get out. This means that the targets in question normally have to be relatively stationary. So you're talking logistics, major command/control nodes, things like that, which are also normally further behind the front line (and thus also further away from the density of air defense systems). In such a role, they would be doing the job currently done by cruise missiles, except they will make a substantially bigger, more effective, and more accurate bang at the far end.

Now, if you consider a US or RAF strike package, and then look at what the Ukrainians have to fill that requirement, you must, I think, conclude that the expectations and goals have to be more limited. They'll help, certainly, but no more than the arrival of Leopards or Archers or any other system taken in isolation.

Sleepy · 21-08-2023 03:04PM

I'd have assumed the Black Sea Fleet would be a primary target for the F16s once they're up and running?

jmreire · 21-08-2023 03:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121006748#Comment_121006748

I have not one iota of sympathy for what ever happens to any Russians in Ukraine, any part of it. And the point I was trying to make was not to express any sympathy for them, but to point out the sheer evil propaganda that Putin's factory of lies are capable of. Making fun of the death of a little girl that they murdered. It doesn't get any sicker than that. While on the other hand ignoring the hundreds of thousands of Russians who will never need their shoes again either. Like I said, pure evil is the only way to describe it, and next time I see videos of the rotting bodies of dead Russians, or Ukrainians clearing trenches with tanks, or cluster munitions shredding them, all I will say is "Slave Ukraine", same as I have been doing all along, and will continue to do.

zv2 · 21-08-2023 03:24PM

Russian soldiers not liked in Moscow Russian Soldiers Say They Are Viewed With Disgust in Moscow (kyivpost.com)

Manic Moran · 21-08-2023 03:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121008006#Comment_121008006

Why? They don't seem to be doing a hell of a lot right now to be worth the risk.

Sleepy · 21-08-2023 03:48PM

I'll defer to your military expertise but I'd have thought the fleet would be worth sinking for a number of reasons:

Huge morale win when sunk

A sunk ship is a very visible large loss of life - much harder for Putin's regime to hide from their citizens and with sailors being more likely to have been recruited from wealthier parts of Russia than infantry (particularly those recruited from the penal system), I'm assuming it would put more pressure on the regime at home.

Russian have been using them to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine and the closer the counter-offensive gets to the south and Crimea, the more viable the fleet becomes as an offensive threat.

Assuming the Kerch bridge will eventually get taken out, Russia will be relying on the fleet to supply Crimea. Without the fleet, Crimea should be easier to take back.

Dohnjoe · 21-08-2023 03:52PM

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1693610010209661181

At this stage I've learnt to trust the Ukrainians who are doing the actual fighting.

Polar101 · 21-08-2023 04:04PM

Re: Russia having tons of S-300 AA missiles that will insta-down any F-16s in the region - I thought they fired most of them at civilian targets in Ukraine already.

Dohnjoe · 21-08-2023 04:04PM

Not too bad actually, very approximately only around 10% losses of NATO equipment (visually confirmed) in Ukraine.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/10/how-is-russia-faring-against-nato.html

TheValeyard · 21-08-2023 04:24PM

This is a pity

https://kyivindependent.com/swedish-pm-no-new-commitments-to-provide-swedish-aircraft-to-ukraine/

thomil · 21-08-2023 04:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121008212#Comment_121008212

I have to agree and disagree here. A fleet that is sunk is definitely a massive PR win, I agree with you on that, especially given that Ukraine has effectively no navy. However, a number of the launching platforms for cruise missiles are Kilo-class submarines, against which Ukraine only has limited countermeasures. Even the F-16s are not able to attack submerged submarines, and Russian sub skippers are generally smart enough not to remain on the surface in broad daylight unless in port. Frigates or corvettes are more vulnerable, but the Black Sea Fleet doesn't have too many of them. Now granted, the fleet can be attacked while in port. It's been done before, Port Arthur, Taranto, or Pearl Harbor are some prime examples. However, the defenses of the likes of Novorossiysk or Sevastopol are pretty extensive and the type of strike package necessary would probably be way beyond Ukraine's capabilities.

Given that, I believe Ukraine's current strategy actually makes sense. The ongoing threat of Ukrainian marine drones, combined with some high-profile attacks, is keeping the majority of Russian navy assets in the Black Sea effectively bottled up in port with comparatively low effort on the Ukrainian side. Any ship that moves beyond the protective barrier nets of the base is vulnerable to attack, which the recent highly effective attack on a Ropucha-Class LST showed. While Russia may be able to send out the occasional submarine or frigate, the current situation effectively has the Black Sea Fleet under blockade. Why risk a massive strike package to attack such a blockaded force when the odd Storm Shadow or marine drone is enough the keep their heads down?

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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