Russia - threadbanned users in OP

You mentioned Dagestan, have you ever been there? And as for weather and temp events, here's one or two for you, happened in Serbia last month. And prior to these event's, the temp was reaching 40c, and no, I didn't ask anyone, I did not need to because I was there. A lot of the devastation happened in Novi Sad, and I had been there too, but before the freak storm hit.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/291884893328189

I'm not "getting at anything" You mention Dagestan, so I asked have you ever been there? Have you? My Russian Friend tells me that its currently 47c where he is, you say its never been that temperature in Russia, so I say that the weather pattern's are changing, and I post a few examples to illustrate what I mean. Temperature records world wide will be broken this year.

Russians get interviewed

I've mentioned this several times before that there lies a deep dislike of ethnic Russian's in all the Republics, but in Chechnya, it goes far deeper than dislike, its down right hatred after what Putin did to the Chechens'. To this day, Kadyrov is regarded as a traitor, and there's plenty of Chechens would not only like to see him dead, but to take an active part in his demise. So there's no love lost between the two groups. Throw a few litres of vodka, a couple of AK47's into the mix, and the Chechens will start to have flashbacks of Samashki, Achkhoy-Martan and other places where Russians behaved as they do, murderously.

And hopefully that trickle will become a flood!!!

His older son is probably in Ukraine already, the 13yr old, probably not far off being drafted given the way they've ran things so far.

The thing is , Putin has such a latticework of layers of protection around himself, that everyone's health and well being ( not mention financial health and well being ) depends on keeping him alive, and presently the threat that may come from the ranks etc.is surpassed by the threat that would definitely come from Putin. Ultimately, I thing that's what scared Prigozhin. Because, the whole Country went on standby, not taking sies as they waited for the outcome, Putin or Prigozhin. Prigozhin folded. With hindsight, I'd say that maybe it's something he regrets. I think that maybe increasing economic hardship on the population, especially with the winter coming may trigger mass protests that even his brutality will not be able to control.

"Because, the whole Country went on standby, not taking sies as they waited for the outcome, Putin or Prigozhin."

With respect, you keep telling us the average Russian is a brainless chicken who is committed to the system and terrified at every turn, utterly incapable of thinking any other way? So how could they suddenly consider morphing and changing their loyalties? Prigozhin would have brought in his own chaotic systems and people.

Perhaps part of the truth is that they are too comfortable being told what to do but astute enough to consider changes in who tells them, that might line their own pockets with more roubles?

And we're back to the pov that are utterly morally corrupt, they could rise up and march in their hundreds of thousands and millions even and there would be sfa that Putin or Prigozhin could do about it. Russian society has many redeeming points in terms of thought, intellectual rigour, arts, invention, ambition and capacity to graft. I believe that's going down the tubes as it is.

Untrue. Where have I ever said that the average Russian is a brainless chicken? Because the reality is the average Russian is no more brainless than the average Irish or English man, and that's for sure! And they showed their intelligence by not taking sides in the recent Prigozhin / Putin affair. Same as most of the top brass ( after what happened to the aircraft sent to stop Prigozhin, they were in no hurry to send out more, ) They too, sat on the fence. Had Prigozhin succeeded, the whole Country would have erupted in celebrations. " The King is dead, Long live the King". But had they intervened on Prigozhin's side, and the coup failed, the bloodletting Putin would have unleashed would have been ferocious, and put Erdogan's revenge in the shade. So no, they very sensibly choose to wait and see. And lived. The distribution of wealth in Russia is strictly regulated by Putin, and most of is circulated within his circle of Silovicki and Oligarch's, with the general population only getting what they do get through the trickle down system. And and of course, while the Silovicki and Oligarchs are being looked after, they will remain loyal. As for your usual dream of a population rising up, marching on the Kremlin, its just not going to happen. And the main reason why that's not going to happen is that Putin will not have the slightest compunction in calling on his personal National Guard, sworn to protect him, and ordering them to open fire on the thousands and thousands of protesters marching on the Kremlin. And Russian Citizens know this only too well. The only way that it might happen is if it reached critical mass in the army ranks, and the officers led the coup, and supported the protesters,

When the best and brightest have already fled ( and have been fleeing quietly for years ,17 million pre- invasion plus 1.5-2 million draft dodgers ) Russian society is far gone down the tubes, even as it is.

Any reliable sources on how much Russia can produce per month or year?

Reading a lot how the counter offensive is a total failure and when you look at how much further there is to the Azov see you'd not feel very positive.

However with the fall of the village yesterday Ukraine have now punched through about 10Km on the road to Mariupol. If you follow the natural line of the river and villages it's about 38km until they reach a settlement which has a station on the train line. This is an important artery for Russian logistics. Another 5km or so past this is the motorway that runs along the South.

Forget reaching the coast this is where Ukraine needs to get to properly **** up Russian logistics in the south. So 10km down, 38km to go. I'm not sure how for they'll get before the mud season kicks in but even getting with 20km of that train station could be enough to permanently disable it with artillery fire. And considering how vital this is they might even continue pushing right through the winter until they finally take it.

This is why Russia has been throwing everything to stop Ukraine taking single villiages here. They know they must hold at all costs. We'll see what happens in the next week if they continue to push on but they'll also need to attack the flanks after making gains so the entire frontline can move up around them.

Zachativka is the name of the town with the train station and like I said it's about 38km to Urozhaine which they just liberated. There's about 6 large villiages along the way so every village they take will be huge progress to achieving this goal.

Whether or not they can capture Staromlynivka will be telling as it's the largest of all the small towns/villages on this path. But they will be slowed down by the fact they need to push sideways before they can continue pushing forward.

I think this is a good way to look at it. Ukraine don't actually need to fully penetrate all the way to the coast. They only need to make it so far across.

Even half way and any russians operating south of them are gonna be having a bad time. The south is effectively a throat. Close it halfway then force the Russians to fight with 50% oxygen intake. They may simply chose not to. This is why the Russians are throwing the kitchen sink at Ukraine for these first 20km. Ceding land in favour of better positions can only work to a point.

I'm pretty sure I can think of another factor that's caused the weakening of Russia.

As ever Putin remains a master strategist