Unseasonable weather with warnings Fri 4th / Sat 5th Aug 2023

Meteorite58 · 02-08-2023 08:19PM #1

Thinking that the weather system later Fri 4th into Sat 5th is noteworthy enough to have it's own thread to keep an eye on it and later for reports for future reference. A deepening small Lp system as it transits Ireland getting down to a modest 995mb but travelling at fair speed being propelled by a fast jet. Quick moving overland but given that it is in the height of summer it is bound to cause damage with trees in full leaf. Could be hazardous to camping sites and caravan parks or to temporary summer structures related to festivals / trading etc.

Sat morning could see a lot of branches and trees down from the strong winds and given that soils might be saturated in places. Currently looks like producing wind gusts of up to 90 to 100km/h overland ( strong enough in Winter but very strong for Summer ) in the early hours of Sat morning. Highest wind track currently mainly through Munster, parts of Connaught and S Leinster but this is subject to change as the models tweak this over the next couple of days. Rainfall totals look a factor also with high totals in places in a relatively short time, some places potentially getting 40 to 50mm and a wide enough area getting between 25 and 35mm in 12- 14 hrs going by the current charts. The models have being upping the wind speeds over the last few runs. There is time for the models to moderate of course but seems to be good cross model agreement for a sharp short wind and rain event.

Cluedo Monopoly · 02-08-2023 09:09PM

Galway Bay could see some decent swells in that run.

Niall145 · 02-08-2023 09:11PM

Best summer ever

Sammy2012 · 02-08-2023 09:29PM

My trampoline!! What a **** summer!!

aisling86 · 02-08-2023 10:11PM

Looks like we’ve at least 1 caravan awning to take down Friday morning. We have season pitches in eagle point & my parents are very exposed to the west & north. My own caravan is more sheltered so I’ll see it any warnings come before dismantling mine. We escaped the freak winds that came through the campsite a few weeks ago which toppled 1 caravan and there was at least 20 awnings damaged. The joys of being so exposed on the south coast.

adocholiday · 02-08-2023 10:12PM

Summer 2023 just keeps on giving eh!

Danzy · 02-08-2023 10:15PM

What direction will the wind be blowing.

NIMAN · 02-08-2023 10:16PM

It is quite windy tonight even, although the weekend might be on a different level.

adocholiday · 02-08-2023 10:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120932778#Comment_120932778

Seems to be from the N/NW direction looking at Met Eireann forecast which is also somewhat unusual. Last time we had a strong wind event from the north I was mostly sheltered from it, I'm at the base of a hill to my north whose peak is about 150m above my house so be interesting to see if I get the same wind break effect.

pauldry · 02-08-2023 10:51PM

Looks about 25mm to 35mm most places in that middle third though that area could shift slightly North. Most of rain overnight in the West so probably a repeat of last night here with higher totals. So we may be at 50mm for August by the 1st weekend of August.

ongarite · 02-08-2023 11:07PM

Yet another music festival facing possible cancellation or stage shutdowns due to this terrible summer.

Danzy · 03-08-2023 09:45AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120932805#Comment_120932805

Thanks, that was what I think the charts were implying.

I live in fear of due south wind's,

TedBundysDriver · 03-08-2023 09:58AM

My friends family decided they'd do a staycation this summer for the first time and have been away since last Friday camping in Kerry and where moving onto Connemara today for next week. They've tried their best but have had a miserable time and are just going to call it a day and head home today instead given the frankly ridiculous forecast for the next few days piled on top of the constant rain for the last week.

The wife in particular feels awful about the whole experience as she let the husband talk the family into doing it instead of a sun break abroad and it's been a disaster. I'm frankly amazed they lasted this long as they had to move the tent twice due to flooding in the space of 2 days.

Personally i'd never take the chance of a staycation especially with kids as without good weather Ireland has very little to offer in terms of relaxation unless you pay big money for luxury hotels/activities etc... Thankfully we got away for 2 weeks to Lanzarote in July because it must be the worst summer i can ever remember bar 2 good weeks in June.

adocholiday · 03-08-2023 11:47AM

Some models backing off the strongest winds now except maybe for Cork, Waterford and Wexford.

Akrasia · 03-08-2023 11:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120933849#Comment_120933849

We've 'staycationed' every year since our children were born. 14 summers, mostly in tents and a caravan,and have had plenty of really good times with plenty to do even when the sun wasn't shining

Your friends got unlucky this year with the bad weather

.Donegal. · 03-08-2023 12:25PM

Yellow - Rain Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry

Unseasonably wet and windy conditions may lead to some disruption on Saturday morning.

Widely, totals of 20-30mm are possible, however the heaviest and most persistent rain is more likely in the south and perhaps also east of the country, affecting parts of County Down and Belfast. Here, there is a small chance of 40-60mm, with perhaps as much as 20-30mm of this falling in just a couple of hours. This will be coupled with some strong winds, widely gusts of 30-35mph are likely, with the risk in some areas, especially exposed coasts in the east, of gusts up to 45-50mph, perhaps bringing some coastal impacts in places. The persistent rain will pull away east into the afternoon, however it will remain generally windy, with a mix of sunshine and blustery showers following.

Valid: 00:00 Saturday 05/08/2023 to 12:00 Saturday 05/08/2023

Oscar Bravo · 03-08-2023 04:46PM

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Connacht, Cavan

Met Éireann Weather Warning
Spells of heavy rain from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning.
Possible impacts:
Spot flooding,
Poor visibility,
Difficult travelling conditions
Valid: 14:00 Friday 04/08/2023 to 09:00 Saturday 05/08/2023

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Meath, Offaly, Westmeath, Wicklow, Monaghan

Met Éireann Weather Warning
Spells of heavy rain from Friday evening to Saturday afternoon.
Possible impacts:
Spot flooding,
Poor visibility,
Difficult travelling conditions
Valid: 18:00 Friday 04/08/2023 to 13:00 Saturday 05/08/2023

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Cork, Kerry, Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning
Overnight Friday and Saturday Morning
Very strong north to northwest winds with gusts of up to 110 km/hr
Possible impacts:
Falling branches.
Damage to temporary structures
Difficult travelling conditions
Valid: 01:00 Saturday 05/08/2023 to 12:00 Saturday 05/08/2023
Issued: 15:53 Thursday 03/08/2023

pauldry · 03-08-2023 05:01PM

We seem to get yellow rain every weekend and the see-through variety during the week.

Yellow rain is pi££ing rain

alentejo · 03-08-2023 05:30PM

ME according to their ap don't have substantial rain reaching Dublin till around 9pm on Friday. Would value any thoughts how likely this is?

Oscar Bravo · 03-08-2023 05:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120935882#Comment_120935882

Yes ,it will be well into the evening/early night before rain reaches the east. Nice day tomorrow, Friday,for most.

.Donegal. · 03-08-2023 05:45PM

An unseasonably wet and windy start to the August Bank Holiday weekend

https://www.met.ie/an-unseasonably-wet-and-windy-start-to-the-august-bank-holiday-weekend

gandalfio · 03-08-2023 06:22PM

Could this possibly cancel All Together Now festival until the Saturday given the warning mentions danger of falling branches and damage to temporary structures?

acequion · 03-08-2023 07:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120933849#Comment_120933849

This 1000 per cent!

I've never understood the mentality of a staycation, except maybe during the pandemic when needs must. While flights abroad in summer can be expensive, bargains can be found by planning well ahead. And once abroad there's much better value to be had. So my point is that anybody or any family who can afford a staycation in this exorbitantly priced country can afford to go away if they plan it carefully.

Also fully agree that there's little to give relaxation to the tired worker if weather is shyte. Some hardy souls might be happy to don the rain gear and get stuck into to rainy outdoors activities, but many nowadays are burned out from their jobs and need half way decent weather at a minimum, or like you say, fork out for a luxury resort in Ireland and how many can do that!

Irish tourism and businesses won't thank me for this kind of post, but there is no denying the advantages of flying out of this country for your well earned break. I would feel sorry for that family and all those who will have to endure a bad bank holiday weekend if the weather warnings pan out as forecast.

mcburns07 · 03-08-2023 08:22PM

Is any thread safe from discussions of holidays? Absolutely sick of listening to people going on about how much better the weather is country x. Nobody cares.

Barnaboy · 03-08-2023 08:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120936599#Comment_120936599

In fairness this is peak summer with kids off school. Most people get 2 weeks off for well earned breaks. Not everyone can afford to get away. This summer is the worst I ever remember for weather here. I'm someone who enjoys getting into the garden in the evenings and weekends. Having barbeques. Can't even remember the last time it came out. It's bloody depressing weather for the time of year. It's only natural people are peeved.

nacho libre · 03-08-2023 09:53PM

So it looks like the strongest winds will just be in Munster now. Going off topic a bit, It seems Deer in Kerry are very friendly by the way. Perhaps they could be coaxed into playing for the county:)

I saw a class picture on Facebook of people right up close to a Deer in Killarney. Now back to the weather again, there could be a bit of warmth around for a couple of days during the second week of August.

acequion · 03-08-2023 09:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120936599#Comment_120936599

Nobody??? By nobody I take it you mean you. As in just one person. A great many people care, actually.

DOCARCH · 03-08-2023 10:01PM

Mod Note: Can we please stay on topic.

igCorcaigh · 03-08-2023 10:12PM

I'd love a good storm. That's how jaded I am with this "summer". Can ye blame me?

nacho libre · 03-08-2023 10:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120937066#Comment_120937066

Well, with a strong El Nino due more wind storms are likely this Autumn and Winter.

Meteorite58 · 03-08-2023 11:03PM

All the models have this system less deep than previous shown not getting below 1000mb in general and on a more Southerly track, strongest winds through SW, S and perhaps the SE coastal counties, current models showing getting gusts up to around 80 or 90 km/h, maybe a bit higher on the Kerry coast, Wexford could be brought into the yellow wind warning, could get very windy along the Wexford coast for a short time tomorrow late morning / early afternoon.

High rainfall totals in a fairly short timeframe.

ICON-EU about average, in the middle, between the models showing the strongest and less strong winds atm. it's track is slightly more North of some of the other models but very like the ECM.

Will see if there is much of a change in tomorrows model output. Not a particularly strong system but just it being summer there is some added risks especially Southern coasts and more exposed or elevated ground.

It looks like the triple point in the system transits the counties highlighted in the charts below to get the most rainfall, hard to predict, might see changes upwards in accumulation predictions tomorrow in the models, will see if there is much of a change.