Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Yes, once the main Russian fortification lines are breached I think we will see rapid gains similar to what we saw in Kherson, and possible mass surrenders of Russians too, as their Morale could well will be broken by that stage. The only reason it is taking the Ukranians as long as it is to breakthrough is because the Ukranians are effectively fighting with one arm tied behind their back without air support. As we all know the Americans do it the other way around- pummel the opposition from the air then send in the ground troops to advance against a greatly weakened foe.

That train line is very revealing. If Ukraine can get closer enough for fire control over it that will complicate Russian logistics big time.

If Russia were to be pushed out of Ukraine, yes I could see a fast track happening, but not while Russia currently occupies the eastern and southern fringe of the country. As things stand, you would have to introduce exceptions to A5 to make it in any way workable, but that opens a pandora's box of exceptions in other possible situations and pretty soon A5 is meaningless.

NATO would have to quite careful not to allow internal squabbles over Ukraine's possible accession to actually weaken the alliance.

If they have 36% alcoholics in the population that would fit life expectancy is 56 for males down from 62 in the 80s I believe.

Turkey could give a huge advantage to Ukraine if they supplied them with artillery + ammunition.

Rapid gains, mass surrenders.

When do you anticipate these?

Theres a nightly show on Tiktok, Youtube and some other platforms hosted by a guy called John Aravosis, called the Aravosis Report - See links below.

It starts at 23:00 Monday to Friday and for paid members theres a Saturday show where he has on some guests, usually including a Ukrainian military guy called "Vlad".

Vlad was giving his update today and he said that Ukrainian forces had pretty much broken through the mine fields in and around Zaphorisha this week and were currently concentrating their efforts on hammering the russian trenches, both manned trenches and anti tank trenches but was confident the Ukrainian military would get through the trench lines thus enabling a large scale influx of Ukrainian soldiers to cause major problems.

He said interestingly enough that the russians in some parts had laid too many mines too close to each other and by dropping bombs from drones and some cluster munitions, hitting a mine was setting of large amounts of other nearby mines and had effectively enabled the Ukrainians break open a clear path to drive their equipment through.

He also said that the British Challenger 2 tanks were supplied with a kit that basically makes it into a bulldozing tank and they are clearing the dragons teeth with those.

Hopefully this information is accurate and we'll see some major inroads towards Crimea etc shortly.

The Aravosis Report (@aravosis) | TikTok

John Aravosis - Wikipedia

Before we worry about reaching Crimea let's worry about Tokmak first. As far as I'm concerned they'll have to make a breakthrough in August otherwise Russia will be able to hold the lines until next summer.

Imagine the cost to Russia as a nation if Ukraine keep fighting for 10 or 20 years.

Up until now they've been largely going through stockpiles of already produced weapons. But if it goes on that long they'll have to rebuild those weapons and ammo over and over again. The cost of logistics alone their debt would be insane.

It has to happen. The risk otherwise is Russia trying again if there is a negotiated settlement. Putin will see that as a sign of weakness and probably renege on any deal.

Can’t happen. The existence of the EU is already on a knife edge and there is every chance if it falling apart as it is. Funnelling EU tax payers money into Ukraine for decades would not be wise. No way will it happen.

They probably won't get EU membership, but I think they will have to be allowed to join Nato. I can't see America going to all this trouble only to agree to a frozen conflict, with all the risk that brings of hostilities flaring up again in the future without the security guarantee of Nato Protection.

Putin had thrashed the Russian economy. He has dispelled any hint of real economics to keep it afloat. Oil and gas prices are so low it’s selling product at cost. Buying up debt and creating future borrowing that will never be repaid is the reality. Even at that it appears soldiers are not getting paid in a consistent way. A Collapse in FDI and a brain drain exodus are all factors ticking away. It’s just remains to be seen the extent of the sting of the dying wasp unfolds.

They are going to beholden to China just to stay afloat. I can actually see a situation developing whereby Putin is viewed in a worst light than Gorbachev by many Russians . The man who humiliated his country on the world stage and reduced it to an economic basket case in pursuit of deluded grand imperial ambitions to right the wrongs of the break up of the USSR. Sorry Francie I can't give you an exact date for all this.