Russia - threadbanned users in OP

But the west is backing out, otherwise they would be supplying far more advanced and longer range weapons, along with the f16s a long time ago.

A Russian victory is subjective. At the start of the war a Russian victory might have been the complete surrender of Ukraine.

If their was to be negotiations and it led to similar to pre invasion status being resumed that would be far from any victory for Russia, no matter how anyone trys to paint it.

But it would take negotiations for this to happen. People who say only a Ukrainian victory and retaking Crimea is the only option are living under some delusion that this is a remote possibility.

Backing out implies the west have stopped giving Ukraine weapons though. In fact it you look month to month you can see a trend:

Those listed are just new announcements for a new weapon system. Each month Ukraine receives more stingers/HIMARS rockets/shells etc... But goes under the radar as it's not new announcements.

I'm baffled how you can claim the west is backing out.

Because Ukraine does have 300 F-35's and 200 F-22's in the air right this minute, or something.

If you told someone a year ago that Ukraine would be getting Western tanks, IFVs and F-16s by the end of 2023, you would be laughed at. Not laughing now.

Nah it's not backing out. It's just entering slowly. A year and a half ago Himars and western artillery was off the table. Then they got it. Then modern air defense, they got those now. Then western tanks were off the table. Then they got them. Then long range missiles. Now they have Storm shadow/SCALP. Then hundreds of thousands of Cluster shells. Now F16s and ATACMS are off the table...... want to guess what the end result will be here? Its a shame how slowly its happening. And it's costing Ukranian lives while the bureaucracy catches up but ostensibly the west is not "backing out".

Haha. A subjective Russian victory? Might wanna have a word with Putin there so chap. Because he'd disagree with you. Putin may have had dreams of running over all Ukraine and failed but he hasn't been wishy washy about what he wants since then. He's annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia by Russian law. Noone of which he completely controls. And neither is he ever likely to. So by his own lines on the map hes failed.

Right so we give over the territories that were stolen and we're right back to pre Feb 2022. Minus a few more chunks of Ukraine and still having to deal with a belligerent imperial Russia who's motives still extend to taking over Ukraine(and probably the Baltics) and further to that with aims of setting up a new competing world order in which democracy and freedom of speech are secondary concerns. You see this as a positive?

Care to flesh out that thought a bit? Or should we just take your word for it yeah?

They could do more, there's definitely an argument to be made in that respect. However Europe, as a whole, has done better than I expected, Germany has gone from reluctantly sending a few helmets, to sending Leopard tanks. The US equipment under Biden can't be faulted much. It also takes a long time to prep equipment, get it transported, train Ukrainians, etc. In that respect they've also been relatively speedy.

Putin's nuclear weapons are the only thing keeping him in the game, if he didn't have those his army would have been crushed by a NATO force in weeks.

Europe or the world has not done enough not even close to enough. Ukraine is in ruins and it looks to be unable to push the Russians out. We all know why the weapons and planes haven't been supplied in the numbers required and that is simply because Putin has nuclear weapons and is probably stupid enough to use them. Without that threat the much wanted Crimea beach party would have happened last summer.

There's certainly something to be said for the fact the western world isn't giving ukraine enough to completely overpower Russia and win all their territory back by force.

But if the counter offensive in the south is even moderately successful. Even through to Tokmak. Then Crimea is a dead end. The kerch bridge is nothing but a future underwater tourist sightseeing adventure. Ukraine have shown that the Russians can't protect it or repair it quickly. And once it goes then how does Crimea get resupplied?

Russia knows this. Ukraine knows this. Which is why the south is so heavily mined and the fighting such a tough slog. It's also why i suspect that Russia is throwing men at Ukranian lines in the north.They're not really gonna retake Luhansk so they're trying so hard to distract. But no-one here has a crystal ball. We don't know how this will pan out.

One thing is for sure though. If Ukraine give up where they are they'll never get ANY territory back. Negotiation is useless with Putins Russia.

But "the West" is providing more and more equipment and better and more lethal armaments. Things are arriving this year which were not on the table last year.

I get that Ukraine could do with x10 of everything, but that was never offered or promised.

Luhansk is full of Natural Gas an Oil. It's certainly in Russia's interests to reclaim it.

At the moment, I think Ukraine took their eye off the ball a bit as the accumulation of forces was flagged a few weeks back. They haven't made as many mistakes as Russia in the invasion but they're not unflappable and have made some.

What happens when Russia accumulates large forces? They've shown they're not just there to conduct military excercises, which was the precursor to the invasion in the first place. And Russia have also shown they place attack over defence, even when it's just a mindless meat grinder. I suspect that's what's happened in Luhansk. No master strategy by the Russians. Accumulate forces and push forward. They have probably surprised themselves with making ground so easily. I really hope it was intentional by Ukraine to try and allow a salient develop before hammering it.... we'll see. But for the moment it looks like they haven't learned from Russian tactics for now. Their own soldiers have commented on the size of Russia's trenches. They could have adopted some of the deployed Russian defence methods which are proving difficult to breach. I'm hoping to be proven wrong and see the salient squashed from 3 sides.

Progress being reported in Staromaiorske.

Some are saying it's liberated but not seeing that claim being widespread. I think Ukraine are only in the Northern part of the settlement.

So what are you insinuating here?

The only country at war with Russia is Ukraine. There is zero obligation for any other country to provide aid, except in self-interest.

European countries will be happy if Russian advances are halted, and the US seems to be happy to bleed Russia white. We can argue about the humanitarian impact on Ukrainians, but when has human suffering ever ended a war,