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30k speed limits for all urban areas on the way

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    No, that doesn't properly reflect what I did at all.

    I did not take "the deliberate number of fatal crashes", as that number cannot be determined. What I used instead was a postulated number stemming from an academic hypothesis which was formulated in the USA almost two decades ago.

    Nor did I make "a foolish assumption" that all non-fatal crashes are non-deliberate. I've already twice pointed out how I allowed an equal number of these as I did for deliberately-caused fatal crashes.

    If you still don't understand, I'm at a loss as to how I can make it any clearer for you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    You lean back in your chair in satisfaction after showing that tiresome Uncle Pierre up for some of what you perceive to be his nonsense.

    The chair topples over, and you fall off.

    Have you fallen accidentally or not?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,379 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,843 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Where are the deliberate non-fatal crashes in your 0.16% calculation please?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 52,492 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    i'm surprised it's only so recently the guidelines were issued in the UK, i thought this was decided long before covid.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    Absolutely. Many people worldwide kill either themselves or others through the accidental outcomes of deliberate foolish and/or reckless decisions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    Right here, highlighted in yellow, so hopefully you don't miss it this time:

    image.png

    "Unsuccessful suicide attempts" = non-fatal deliberate collisions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,843 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    So out of the 48,700 approx non-fatal crashes, you decided that 39 of these were deliberate?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    I didn't decide, as I've no reliable data. Instead, I made an allowance, to illustrate a point.

    And in fact, 39 is surely vastly overstating the real number of unsuccessful vehicular suicide attempts, but I was being generous to you.

    A vehicular suicide attempt is likely to involve high speed, a conscious decision not to wear a seat belt, and a deliberate head-on collision.

    So 39 successful suicide attempts and 39 unsuccessful ones would mean a 50% chance of surviving a crash in those circumstances. The actual chance of surviving a such a crash is miniscule.

    If you can find figures or a hypothesis regarding what proportion of all crashes are deliberately caused for reasons other than vehicular suicide attempts, then I'm happy to recalculate.



  • Posts: 15,362 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Next up, Wexford town looking to roll out 30k limits




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    Well.....more the case that it's one of the things that may have been suggested by one or more people at a drop-in consultation event that was held in the town library today, as part of the pre-draft process. See https://consult.wexfordcoco.ie/en/consultation/new-local-area-plan-wexford-town

    Work on actually drafting the Local Area Plan hasn't even started yet. And when it's drafted, the elected members will accept some portions of it, amend some sections, and reject some sections.

    It's not "Wexford town looking to roll out 30k limits" in the sense that a resolution to introduce such speed limits has already been agreed. It's just one of the things that may be considered in the years ahead.



  • Posts: 15,362 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Cool, as I said, Wexford town looking to roll out 30k limits



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    Or......"some in Wexford town area suggest that a proposal for 30km/h speed limits could be included in the upcoming draft Local Area Plan, so that it can be considered by the elected members of the Council in the years ahead".

    One is a short and snappy "clickbait" headline, while the other is a more accurate summation of the true current situation.



  • Posts: 15,362 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Word it whatever way suits you, still doesn't make my statement any less accurate

    I look forward to seeing the final LAP



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    Yes, as a resident of County Wexford and one who works in Wexford town, I look forward to seeing it too, for a whole host of reasons.

    Wouldn't surprise me if the finalised draft does include a suggestion of 30km/h limits, and at that stage, it will indeed be accurate to say "Wexford town looking to roll out 30km/h limits".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,843 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    So you decided that 50% of fatal crashes were suicides and 0.16% of non-fatal crashes were suicide attempts, and you wonder why I talk about statistical misdirection?



  • Posts: 15,362 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Anyone else think its nuts that the current process, which takes years, requires councils to change bye-laws to enact 30k zones and 30k limits in housing estates

    I was going over the proposal from earlier in the year for Limerick housing estates and there are a load slated to get 30k but there's a huge amount also not due to get them. It looks like, from start to finish, the entire process will take about 4-5 years.

    I know DCC and others have made direct contact with Transport, Housing etc Ministers in an effort to make 30k the default in urban areas with the exception of main roads. With any luck that will happen soon, but as with anything political, its likely to still take years to bring in even if they announced it in the morning



  • Posts: 15,362 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Speaking of Limerick, here's the 30k zone they are proposing for the city center

    image.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    Andrew, you seem to have serious trouble in keeping up with things here - even with things that you introduce yourself.

    I did not decide that 50% of fatal crashes were suicides. You presented a figure that suggested 30% of single-vehicle collisions which occur under a very particular set of circumstances are suicides. You misdirected from the overall conclusion of that hypothesis that "Only 1.7% of the total fatal crashes were considered to have been suicides, and 1% of the nonfatal crashes were deemed suicide attempts", and also that the study focused on only 278 crashes in the USA over a six-year period - an almost infinitesimally small figure from the total of more than five million crashes that occur in the USA per year (source: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/legal/car-accident-statistics/). 278 crashes out of approximately 30 million means only about 0.0001% of all crashes were the subject of that study.

    By the way, think we should let it pass how Forbes uses the term "accident".

    Being exceedingly generous to you, I overlooked your misdirection and ran with this 30% figure anyway, applying it to all fatal collisions in Ireland over the course of a year - not just the ones that met the criteria outlined in the academic paper you presented. This is where the figure of 39 deliberate fatal crashes came from (129 fatal crashes x 30% = 38.7).

    I then made an allowance that an equal number of non-fatal crashes were also deliberate. This would allow for unsucccessful suicide attempts, and staged car crashes for insurance scam purposes.

    So, an overall summary:

    • I allowed that 30% of fatal crashes were suicides. This was the proportion you presented, and this gave a figure of 39.
    • Allowing that a further 39 non-fatal crashes were also deliberate, to give a total of 78 deliberate crashes, would mean that 50% of all deliberate crashes were fatal. It does not mean that 50% of fatal crashes were deliberate. Please read this line as often as necessary, because this is fundamental to your first misunderstanding.
    • The total number of deliberate crashes according to these calculations (78) represents 0.16% of all crashes. It does not mean that 0.16% of non-fatal crashes were suicide attempts. Again, please read this as often as necessary, as it's fundamental to your second misunderstanding.
    • The total number of non-fatal crashes reported in Ireland that year was 48,714. The allowance being made is that the number of deliberate non-fatal crashes was 39. Therefore, (39/48,714) x 100 = 0.08% of non-fatal crashes would have been deliberate.

    Again, if you can find actual figures for the number of non-fatal deliberate crashes per year, I'm happy to recalculate. I have thus far been unable to find such figures myself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,843 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    I then made an allowance that an equal number of non-fatal crashes were also deliberate. This would allow for unsucccessful suicide attempts, and staged car crashes for insurance scam purposes.

    This absolute statistical misdirection, regardless of how hard you work to obfuscate things.

    Allowing for an equal number of a cohort that is more than three hundred times larger is nonsense. If you wanted to allow for an equal percentage, that would make some sense. But allowing an 'equal number' out of 150 crashes and out of 48,714 crashes is clear misdirection.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    Even if that's the case, you're currently misdirecting from how you completely misunderstood and/or misinterpreted the results of those calculations.

    Anyway, I'm currently packing for a two-week holiday. I don't expect to be on Boards much during my time away. But again, if you can find figures showing what proportion of all non-fatal crashes are deliberately caused, I'm happy to recalculate upon my return.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,843 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Good to see that we finally got there. “Even if that’s the case “ 🤣🤣🤣



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,379 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    You're both a long way from defining crash vs accident. Give it up for the love of mike.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,751 ✭✭✭Uncle Pierre


    Greetings from sunny Portugal.

    I will indeed leave it now, for the love of Mike and everybody else.

    Main point remains the simple English that any crash, collision, mishap, injury or anything else is an accident unless it's been caused deliberately. The fact that the mishap may have occurred as an unintended consequence of a deliberate action does not mean that the mishap itself was not an accident.

    Again, for example - you lean back in your chair, despite knowing this will make the chair unsteady and more likely to topple over. The chair does indeed topple, and you fall off. Unless you've actually set out to fall, for some strange reason known only to yourself, you haven't deliberately fallen. Instead, you've accidentally fallen.

    A small minority of road crashes may indeed be deliberate, and therefore not accidents. Unfortunately I allowed myself to be dragged into a discussion with Andrew on trying to establish what exactly that small proportion might be. Truth told, it was becoming as tiresome for myself as for others here.

    I've finished with this particular discussion now. Over and out.



  • Posts: 15,362 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I will indeed leave it now....

    Followed by 3 paragraphs of the same again

    Mike is not feeling the love



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,379 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    People are only fooling themselves if they think using special language, words to imply a narrative of of no responsibility for their actions. This isn't an issue of stats or language. It's an issue of culture and habits.

    Would people prefer Grafton Street with a 50k limit and traffic running through it. Because at the end of day it's about what you want those urban spaces to be.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,938 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    So after a number of paragraphs of waffle, we now can take it that you agree with the idea that if someone swings a baseball bat around and manages to make contact with another person's head, well it was an unfortunate accident because the person swinging the bat never intended it to happen and really is only a bit of a mishap!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,379 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    The question is do you want to walk down a pavement with people swinging bats.

    Batty.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,938 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Sure if I get a belt from one, I really shouldn't take it personally, wasn't it just an unfortunate mishap?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,379 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Consider in baseball, they wear helmets, gloves body padding, they don't do that for no reason.

    So if you are walking you need to wear similar equipment in case you meet someone with a bat. It implied it's your responsibility to protect yourself, not the person swinging a bat. (which might be illegal, but no one cares). It might even be a requirement to wear bright clothes to the person with the bat can see you. They being as blind as a bat.



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