Russia - threadbanned users in OP

https://t.me/MishaDonbass/1048

A Russian mil blogger has died and could very well have been a victim of a cluster munition strike.

Basically, and in broad strokes for ordinary Russians, the everyday life is grim in almost every aspect. Rising cost of living, while the staples are available ( in most cases ) drop in the value of the Ruble is hitting people on fixed income very hard. Influx of people from Crimea etc. is causing shortages in accommodation, with the attendant price rises. ( now where have I heard that before?) Basically, in another Country, it would have people out on the streets. There's not much of an air of jollity about, with my friend anyway. Once I heard it said that if you want to gauge the mood of Russians, go on the Metro, and if there's lots of chatter and noise, all is well. But a sullen and silent crowd is an accurate measurement of Russians discontent. Apparently the Metro's are very quiet these days......

There was one Ukrainian report that in one day alone last week,750 Russians were killed or injured. If those kind of losses are being suffered by the Russians, for sure, they will have a manpower problem and pretty soon at that. They did not mention the Ukraine losses for the same time frame, but presumably,( hopefully) it was not as bad as the Russian figure's.

There was reports around Bakhmut that recent Russian losses were on par with Wagner losses earlier in the year. I think it was more a daily high rather than the cumulative figure. Loosing as much as Wagner etc...

Can't be any better/easier for them with the cluster shells now!

Ukraine said they killed 750 , but what are Ukrainian losses in that time

Ukraine killed 80,000 + Russians in bakmut but yet they took the City after 9 months ,we all seen the ratios of 10:1 being reported on here on a near daily basis,then came US reports that the loses was 1:1 to 1:2 ,we also have listened to the Western experts saying Ukraine are taking heavy losses ,but some on here will return and say no there not they changed tactics and they aren't taking heavy losses,we get another claim today of Ukraine smashing through the Russians a mile to half a mile a day ,yet looking at the maps they have barely moved in the last week or two ,this is why the Kirsch bridge was specifically targeted to divert attention away from the claims of the offensive having been stalled, we know there is a serious shortage of ammunition,tanks and IFVs ,the war has now turned into an artillery duel , if there Is no major break throughs that force the Russians out of Kherson we will be discussing the next counter offensive next may /June

Remind me please what month the rout of Kherson was last year.

Spoiler , it was November

Ukraine still reporting success at efforts to kill moskovytes near Bakhmut and move forward in places on the front lines where they continue to try to remove putin's invasion force from their country.

Also reports that moskovytes don't like the Ukrainians using cluster munitions on them:

The whole thing is, while we have experts and statistics drawing conclusions, and making various estimates about this position or outcome etc. we really don't have an accurate picture about what's happening on the ground in Russian cities, and Russian society in general. And given Putin's media paranoia, we are not going to find out anytime soon either. My guess is that the Russian people are suffering too, much more than is generally thought, and this needs to be included in the overall picture when assessing Russian capabilities.

General point: In this age of non-stop, real-time (or close to it) information, it's easy to forget how huge a percentage of it is just noise. Truth to be told, we have an accurate picture of feck all. We can't see what's happening on the front lines, not in the rear areas, not in Moscow, Brussels or Washington and even Kyiv is naturally going to keep its cards close to its chest. Likewise for unseen and back-channel communictations between the EU, Turkey, Russia. China and US and who knows who else. A lot of it won't be known until the thirty year rule or its various equivalents expire long after this war ends. Even when we see Leader X visiting Leader Y for discussions, the only glimpse you'll get of what was said, apart from the howayehs, will be a carefully-crafted press release. In the face of this fog of both politics and war (the most chaotic and unpredictable of all human activities), the ability of some posters on this thread to confidently predict this or that outcome or know this or that fact really does make me laugh sometimes.

When Russia illegally invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Putin declared the countries economic and financial data a state secret.

On 23 Apr 2022 Russia enacted legislation which means publishing data on banks, oil and debt, and publishing financial data became a state secrets crime overnight. The West's window into the Russian economy closed down.

The Russian Finance Ministry kept publishing “headline figures” every month on the government website, in what at first glance seems to be a direct breach of the regulations Putin enacted, in declaring the figures Top Secret. Is this just an oversight of intelligence, or is there a reason to it?

To anyone aware of the Russian tactic of Mashirovka, this continued publishing of headline figures immediately falls within scope of the centuries old practice of deception and disinformation.

If you don’t know about Mashirovka, one definition of it is - a ‘set of measures that consists of such actions as concealing true targets and installing simulated ones to deceive and confuse the enemy, and the use of disinformation.’

The “data: published by the Russian Ministry of Finance, is disinformation to lead analysts up the garden path, and tries to sell the message that the economy is doing just great. A simple understanding in economics will help you to immediately spot the fake “data”, being used without detail and evidence to suggest that the economic position is unaffected by the fall in oil an gas revenue from the same period in 2022.

A brief summary of Russia’s income:

Russia’s #Oil and #Gas #revenue is down year on year by 50% (conservative and evidenced in resources in next tweet).

Oil and gas represented 60% of the GDP for the country pre-invasion.

The practical impact of this:

Example, if your salary was $1000, and 60% of it ($600) was reduced by half (i.e$300), the net effect is your new pay packet will only be $1000 less the $300 = reduction of salary to $700, (30% drop in pay).

Russia suggests in it’s Finance Ministry misinformation that while it has realised a 50% reduction in 60% of all it’s income - it has made unrealistic amounts from “other” income, which is complete tosh, and is designed to mislead the true reduction in total state revenues in the first 6 months of 2023.

The #disinformation Russia is publishing, suggests that the other income it was making (non-oil and gas income), has miraculously grown, to lessen the impact of the loss in income from it’s oil and gas. It makes this ridiculous claim without offering any explanation for this “growth” in non oil and gas revenue.

What are Russia’s main revenue streams?:

Crude oil is Russia’s biggest export, accounting for $123 billion of its export revenues, data for 2019 shows. Next on the list are refined petroleum – things like petrol and diesel – at $66.2 billion, gas at $26.3 billion and coal at $17.6 billion.

So what is this “other income”?

Well prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia was the world’s largest exporter of wheat, bringing in $8.14 billion from sales in 2019. It is also a big exporter of semi-finished iron – this includes iron – with sales worth just under $7 billion in 2019, and a large supplier of nickel ($4.03 billion) and nitrogen-based fertilizers ($3.05 billion).

In summary - Putin is pushing out disinformation about the countries finances via his Finance Ministry, to mask the realities of it’s failing economy.

Just consider why Putin would ban the publication of all economic data by decree on one hand, and then allow a subjective set of unverifiable and wildly optimistic economic data to be published by an arm of the state on the other hand - if not to serve a propaganda objective?

The answer is, Mashirovka. In classic #Mashirovka playbook fashion invented and practiced by the Russians, mixing a little truth with a whole lot of disinformation without evidence and facts - is sufficient sow doubt and confusion about the reality of a failing economy.

That's the figures I assumed he was using but still impossible to get a 1:1 ratio from those figures, no matter how one tries. We also don't know if those Russian figures include Wagner or the Cannon fodder from the DPR etc...

The Ukrainian figure for KIA is broadly similar/ties into to the official figure that Ukraine announced late last year. Plenty on here dismissed that, saying Ukraine was massively downplaying the number.

Something quite kickass about this. 100% the Russians will be targeting it.