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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    At the end of the day - is it really conceivable Russia ever vacate Crimea?


    If an agreement can be reached with regards to Crimea UN observed elections etc perhaps an end to the war can be reached.


    Soon Putin will want an out.


    Maybe Crimean elections can be the peacemaker



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,308 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Putin has always been obsessed with Crimea, he'll never give it up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,308 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    More heavy attacks on Odessa overnight. Russia not just using essential global food supply as a weapon, they are actively attempting to destroy the facilities where that food supply comes from.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    And Putin won't be round forever. Every dog has his day and then it's done.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,707 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    Unfortunately it doesn't seem possible to leave Russia in Sevastapol hampering Ukrainian grain ships. As we've seen in the past few days. Russia simply exiting the grain deal and it's unclear how interested Erdogan is in enforcing a new one.

    Now this may work out again this time. Erdogan may pull through and just decide unilaterally to hold Russia to the agreement. But this isn't a good long term solution. Erdogan is an old man who hasn't been in good health recently. He could be replaced by someone less interested or more sympathetic to Russia. Or he could simply decide to push the western world and Ukraine for concessions around this situation as he has post election with Sweden and NATO.

    Putin is an honourless rat. He will predictably bail on any agreement the second he isn't forced to keep his word or it doesn't suit. And Ukraine cannot exist as a state without its grain exports. So the only real solution is to evict Russia from Crimea.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,513 ✭✭✭✭josip


    If Ukraine can cut the landbridge and reach the Azov sea I can't see how Crimea can be held in the long term. The only access to it from Russia will be via ferry across the Kerch strait. There will be no tourism industry. The canal is again dry so the agriculture sector will disappear. Having to import more foodstuffs will raise the cost of living and a large part of the population will relocate back to Russia. It will be military outpost, albeit a very large one.

    Should Ukraine regain control of Kherson Oblast, Russia will undoubtedly fortify the isthmus further and try to defend the peninsula. But in 12 months time, with a much shorter front line to target, Ukraine can bring a lot more firepower to bear on that narrow isthmus. Coupled with increased air superiority, it will be a very uncomfortable place to be for Russian defenders. Ukraine can play the long game with Crimea.

    The Donbas I think will be much easier for Russia to defend and resupply. Retaking the Donbas within my lifetime will probably require a Russian collapse most likely brought about by internal power struggles in a collapsing economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,447 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Its not impossible for Russia to be made vacate Crimea, either by force or by agreement. By force is one hell of a job, but if the conditions were right, Ukraine might be able to advance onto Crimea. I suspect the Russians might even fear this as a possibility since some of their defensive lines appear to include the entrance to the Kerch peninsula. (A last ditch defence before the bridge?)

    Question is, beyond territory, what do the Russians want with Crimea? The naval port is the usual answer to that, but given how badly their navy has faired in this conflict, will they have much of a navy to even host there? The Baltic up north is destined to become a Nato Lake, and the Black Sea with a Nato-member Ukraine would nearly mirror the Baltic as a Southern Nato Lake (Especially if Georgia join, which they want to). This leaves the Russians with only their arctic and far east ports free of nearby Nato scrutiny.

    The Russians might eventually feel that the pains of being a pariah state are not worth the cost of a naval base that they might barely get any use of. It would however mean curtains for Putin, so he’d need to be out of office for that scenario to happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,308 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Came across a small collection of images from the early days of the war, I recognise these ones especially, very powerful images

    image.png


    image.png


    image.png image.png image.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,854 ✭✭✭zv2




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,308 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,976 ✭✭✭rogber


    If Trump wins US aid to Ukraine could and probably would rapidly end, no one knows what will happen next year...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,308 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    From the Guardian feed today:


    A gigantic pro-Russian mural realized by an Italian street artist on a bombed-out building in occupied Mariupol has sparked a row in Italy with the artist accused of plagiarism and spreading the Kremlin’s false information on the conflict in Ukraine.

    On 11 July, Italian street artist Ciro Cerullo, known as Jorit, announced on his Instagram profile that he had completed a mural in the devastated Ukrainian city. The mural features the little girl with the colours of the flag of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in her eyes. Behind her, bombs with the word “Nato” are falling.

    “They lied to us about Vietnam, they lied to us about Afghanistan, they lied to us about Iraq, and now I have proof: they are also lying to us about Donbas”, Jorit wrote in his post on Instagram. ‘’Be wary of those who would like to give us morals, their hands are covered in blood.’’

    In an interview with Giornale Radio, Jorit said he had painted “a living little girl from Donbas who spent her first years in Mariupol surrounded by war”.

    However, a number of users on Instagram and Twitter pointed out the striking resemblance to a photograph that appeared on the 2018 cover of the Australian photography magazine Capture, realised by Australian photographer Helen Whittle with the subject being her daughter, the very same little girl allegedly used as a model by Jorit in Mariupol.


    As noted by Valigia Blu, an Italian non-profit independent fact-checking and debunking website focusing on journalism, “before the full-scale Russian invasion there was a mural dedicated to a Ukrainian girl from Mariupol, Milana Abdurashytova.’’

    “In January 2015, she was hit by a missile strike launched by pro-Russian separatist forces, and she lost her mother and a leg” reports Valigia Blu. “Three years later, to commemorate Milana Abdurashytova’s story, street artist Sasha Korban dedicated a mural to her on the facade of a building on Prospekt Myru. But after the occupation, the Russians covered it up. For the Ukrainians — and the legitimate administration of Mariupol — the occupiers are “trying to erase the 2015 tragedy from the memory of the city’s residents”.

    Soon after the Russian invasion – in late February – Mariupol was one of the first major cities to be encircled. Viewed as a key Kremlin objective, the city was the scene of a siege that the Red Cross has defined as “apocalyptic”. The outskirts of the city became the site of a mass grave, and the bodies of many more men, women and children were either dumped in the streets or remain buried beneath the rubble.

    image.png



    As always, these people are "useful idiots" for Putin's regime, they bolster and support Putin's disinfo and propaganda.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    What stops them from giving up... Fear, pure and simple. Its something that they know since their childhood. for sure, its a somewhat milder version than Kim Jong Un uses in North Korea, but just as effective nonetheless. I mean when you have several rings of soldiers behind the front lines to "encourage" them to fight, knowing that what ever chance you have against the enemy, you have no chance if you retreat. Famously shown in the movie about Leningrad, Enemy at the Gate. The same fear permeates throughout Russian society, and its one treason why ethnic Russians are not liked in the republics. As for the financial side, yes, all that military material has to be paid for, so I guess a large % of oil cash is now diverted away from the pockets of the Silovicki and Oligarchs, something that they're not terrible happy about.



  • Site Banned Posts: 899 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    despicable you'd think an artist would know better



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    In Syria I met many older people, both men and women manning checkpoint's in what would not be considered hot zones, but needed monitoring none the less. They always had a younger military age person in charge. They served their purpose by freeing up military age soldiers for active war purposes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Turkey now saying that they won't be protecting grain shipments, due to fears of escalations from the Russians ..




    Post edited by Gatling on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭vixdname


    Hi all, is the "Telegraph" a traditionally anti Ukrainian paper or is there a feeling setting in in the media that the Ukrainian counter offensive has been a failure thus far ?

    Dont get me wrong, I'm 100% behind the Ukrainians and their war against the scum that is Russia but its disconcerting to see a number of headlines like the ones below in recent days online.

    Has the counter offensive been a failure up to now, in your opinion ?

    I'm reading about these "Probing attacks" for weeks now but the Russian defenses seem to have been under estimated, with Ukrainians not able, up to now, to achieve any relevant breakthrough.

    The Ukrainians are fighting with one arm tied behind their backs against the Orcs.

    Its obvious they are better equipped, better trained and more cohesive as a fighting force than the Russians are but the drip feed and stalling from the west seems to have given the Orcs the upper hand with lots of time given to them to prepare for the counter offensive, whilst the west decided whether to give Ukr Tanks, F16s, long range missiles etc etc etc.

    The equipment given this far to the Ukrainians is mostly suitable when it is complimented by sufficient air cover, but there basically is none...The western strategists in the US \ NATO etc all know this and would never allow their forces attempt such breakthroughs as Ukr is attempting without air cover, yet.. they expect the Ukrs to be able to do it ?

    Its all gone very strange and ones starting to think that the US in particular, under Biden, is doing one of two things.....A. Using the "expendable" Ukr troops as cannon fodder in order to diminish over time Russians military capabilities or B. Biden is genuinely "Afraid" of Putin and the possibility that if NATO "Upsets" Putin too much, the war will escalate into a much broader and globally serious war.

    To me, and boy could I be wrong, those two possibilities can be the only 2 reasons we're seeing this war continue in its current vein.

    Throw in a couple of miscalculations on the US \ NATOs part and we could indeed see Ukr having to concede land to the Orcs, irrespective of what bluster and defiance may emanate from Kyiv....the autumn is fast approaching, Ukr has not taken back anywhere near the land they and the rest of us had hoped they would have by mid July and a slowdown come the bad weather again will only allow the Russians dig even deeper to hold those lines.

    This is not a pretty picture for either side, but in my opinion, and I speak only for myself, I think we're at a very dangerous junction in this conflict, where time is quickly running out and if nothing substantial is gained within the next couple of months, this war will turn in to that stalemated attritional conflict we'd all hoped would not materialise, but even more dangerous, is how long the west will continue to back Ukr in such a protracted conflict before war fatigue, home audience discontent and financial issues become catalysts for mind changes in western powers

    image.png


    image.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,308 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    So much for "emboldened Erdogan"

    They may have to do it overland, but will be expensive as hell.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭jmreire


    I don't think that the new administration can "unwrite" laws and agreements made by the previous administration? Open to correction on this though. When the US left Afghanistan hurriedly, it was an agreement made by Trump 2 year's previously, but Biden had to follow through. Now it may have suited Bidens purpose to do just that, and blame Trump, that could have happened too and he could well have stopped the evacuation, I don't know.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,854 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,308 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    As Zelensky said, it's not an action movie, don't expect huge progress. They've also admitted progress is slower than expected, which is normal (the Russians dug in all winter). They have to get through a vast number of mines, dug in defences. Keep in mind that Ukraine are mainly conducting probing attacks and haven't committed the bulk of their forces. They also have no real airpower. F16 training has only just been greenlighted.

    Last estimate was that Ukraine had liberated around 250 square km of territory in the past weeks, roughly equal to what the Russians took in 6 months in their Bahkmut offensive.

    Some newspaper writers are capitalising on concern over the counter-offensive, which is normal.

    At the end of the day, it's a war, no one has a crystal ball, and last check Russia holds around 16% of Ukraine, which is slowly decreasing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,513 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Do you expect them to continue probing and targeting supply lines/ammo dumps behind the front lines for the next few months, which would be effectively the remainder of 2023?

    Or do you think they will feel compelled to try to breach the Russian lines at some point before the autumn mud returns? If it's difficult (high casualties) to breach the Russian lines during summer 2023, won't the cost be higher in Spring 2024 when the Russians will be even more entrenched?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Words would fail you, when you think our branch of Roman Catholicism has it's failings, the Orthodox leaders are scum.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,395 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Breaking news

    Leo varadker just arrived in Kiev Putin must be bricking it ,






  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,185 ✭✭✭Polar101


    "We are giving a further €5 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine – €3 million to be spent in Ukraine by the Red Cross for its vital work, and €2 million to the UN fund,” Mr Varadkar said."

    Big spender Leo - every little bit helps I guess.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But didn't give it to Ukraine directly....


    He must be afraid of something



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Because clearly had he given it to the Ukrainian government you'd have had everyone from campists to SF grousing that Ireland was funding the war effort - ergo - something something neutrality.

    I know it's kneejerk to immediately stink eye anything Varadkar does as suss, but it just looks like a simple bit of European solidarity to me.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    €2m to the UN, an organisation set up to avoid such catastrophic wars. But which is shown to be worthless when it's needed.



This discussion has been closed.
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