Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Fireworks

Thank you for posting this. Now, I know Ukraine is winning. Last year, you posted something similar but added that Russia was going to counterattack and destroy Ukraine. This time, you didn’t which shows they are weaker.

Although Girkin says he is not revealing information that Ukraine doesn't know already, what he is potentially doing is setting up a psychological 'win' for Russia if/when this attack doesn't materialise, even if Ukraine weren't planning to launch one in the first place.

That didn't take long.

I don't see anything that suggests to me Russia won't win.

Why are you adamant Ukraine can win?

I'm willing to listen to a logical and reasonable opinion as to why you think they can.

I don't see it. With the best will in the world I don't see how Ukraine can win (assuming 'win' means getting back all territory). I have no doubt with western support they may be able to take back some territory.

I never said Ireland would be kicked out of the SM. I said without a resolution to the northern border we would leave by default which was inevitable until the recent agreement.

That's not the same as being kicked out.

Of course he does. He's just the most recent iteration of the scutterbots. We need to break out the Putinbot bingo again.

The West won't allow Ukraine to lose. End of story. We've had over a year of continued and unanimous support for Ukraine, and I believe Poland will step in if Ukraine looks like it may falter.

How many of Putin's "red lines" have been crossed by NATO countries? Russia is a paper tiger, and that's for all to see. As Ukraine's weapons and systems are getting more complex, Russia's are getting worse.

My prediction is a new political structure in Russia by this time next year with Putin either dead or imprisoned. There are only so many body bags that can come back before the population ousts him.

How and with what though? They could struggle to hang on to what they have in Ukraine over next few months (you admitted that I think). I don't think the Western support of Ukraine is as fickle as you believe either (hasn't been any evidence of this).

Russia will need more manpower. I mean they could mobilise more of the economy and population for war in Ukraine. Maybe that is possible, but it is a political risk to do it, and more of their young economically active population they light on fire for nothing in this war (turned over to support the war industries, or actively fighting on front lines, or driven away out of the country) the worse future prospects for Russia will become. Even Putin must know this deep down somewhere.

They need more (and better, more modern) materiel too to replace vast amounts (must be multiple decades worth of inherited Soviet weapons?) they have been burning up.

Don't think their industry is up to replacing this without major outside help, no matter what edicts govt. draft to up production (Stakhanovite 25 hr days, 8 day weeks, moving workers around by order). The only way to get the second need fully met, I think is for China to come off the bench in a big way that the US/EU/West won't be able to ignore any more for sake of maintaining peace & economic stability.

Do you think that is likely? I don't myself.

"My lot"? I have no skin in this game. It doesn't matter to me who wins or not. I take an entirely dispassionate view of a regional conflict that I, and most people, know little about the real issues involved.

What I do know is this will end with a negotiation and it's almost certain Ukraine is going to lose territory in the east. It's a question of how much.

We probably would'nt be in this situation had Crimea been defended when the war actually began in 2014. Unfortunately it wasn't and that leads to where we are now.

I see no way Ukraine can 'win' from here. They may take back small slivers of territory away from the Russian main line of defence. The Russian positions are just too well fortified. It's proving to be an impossible task.

Maybe that is the point.

Offer limited support to slow progress and bleed Russia further than a short sharp victory would?

Or a fear that if Ukraine was suitably equipped and won, it would emerge as a military power in Eastern Europe?

Or more likely that Western countries simply cannot afford politically or economically to move to a war footing for a war they are not in.

Or maybe as zv2 says, they want the Afghan strategy, where the goal is not to beat the Russians, just outlast them.

A nice infographic of pledged supplies to Ukraine as a result of the NATO conference.

Based on what we've seen in the last month and a half, this doesn't seem enough.

The British and French contribution in particular seems miserable (50 missiles from France, 70 support vehicles + Challenger ammo from Britain). Germany isn't much better, 20k artillery rounds is a few days of usage for Ukraine.

The US donations seem to be mostly replacement for things destroyed or already expended.

Why do you assume it's all once off pledges?

It's ongoing equipment, it was just all announced the same day jointly.

In another month there will be more individual announcements from individual countries as per the last year and a half.

I'm not sure why you assume the American pledges are replacements for destroyed equipment.

There's some silly assumptions going around that Ukraine only have 100 western IFV's and ~38 have been damaged/destroyed.

The second figure is visually confirmed, but people only look at the Bradley figures, there's still 40 MARDER's, 90x Strykers and an unknown number of CV90's in Ukraine with zero visually confirmed damaged or destroyed. Same for the Challenger tanks.

Be nice to know exactly what and how many shells Russia had. 😂 I don’t think for a minute that those are the correct figures after all it is a war.

Ukraine will only win with help, otherwise it will drag on for years. They've made no huge gains, they need air support from afar,

It will probably drag on for another year.

At the end of the day, Western countries have zero obligation to Ukraine. They're not in the EU and not in NATO. Western countries will only offer help so long as their own self-interests are satisfied. For the US this means the second most powerful army in the world (lol) is destroyed, and for Europe it means the threat of Russian expansion is nullified.

As it stands this has been achieved.

Ukraine is making incremental gains and Russia is exhausting their men and materiel.

I get that we're all emotionally invested in a Ukranian victory, but talk is cheap and practically many would place our and our family's comfort above any restrictions which may arise from increasing support to Ukraine. Politicians see this and are acting accordingly. There's a lot of disquiet in the US over the billions spent so far, and Biden's approval rating is abysmal.

IMO there's a greater chance the war will end due to political changes in Russia than a Ukrainian military victory.