Beef price tracker 2

It was believed by many that the only way that cattle prices were going was up with no limits. Why the price falls? There is still the same amount of cattle in the Country. Friesian bullocks were hot property early in the year someone led people to believe that they were worth the prices achieved. The Farmer is always their own worst enemy.

Commodities in general have decreased - milk, grain. Any reason to believe beef is any different?

Any farmer should have reflected some( if that a lot) of last year's costs into there replacement strategy. In 2021 I was costing the finishing costs in my system at 350/ head. Last year I rose that to 450 to reflect extra cost within the system. When I went replacing last year I was allowing 450 as my costs and 250/ head as my expected margin a total of 700 euro.

When I was buying I looked at an animal or bunch of animals estimated there hook price @ a base of 4.6-4.8 subtracted 700 euro and was willing to follow to that price.

While the bales they eat were more expensive last winter, store feed costs went for 85-90c/day to about 1.2/ days over jast winter. My mean turnout day reduced by 3-4 days. First bunch killed 3 weeks earlier than last year. Grass has been better to grow this year compared to last year.

Fertilizer bill will be back by 20-30/ head. Ration bill will probably be back by 20/ head( I expect to have less cattle going into the shed cattle finishing earlier off grass). Bakes silage cost is back by 5-6/ bale ( 18-20/ head next winter). Diesel is back by about 25-30% compared to last year.

All.in all looking at replacement next autumn I will again set my 700 euro target as cost/margin strategy

over the past couple of years, you’ve argued that high costs fertiliser meal, diesel is good for the farmer.

well you’ve certainly got your wish so at what point does it actually get good for the farmer as I’m certainly still waiting.

now don’t really buy (pardon the pun) that beef is an unforgiving business and we need to mind the pennies but quite a lot of farmers have been minding the pennies for many a year but still farm incomes have been on the floor for years.

I was wondering what he was going to say because costs are down this year on last year for me.

For me last year and the year before were better years than average for my system. This year is looking good as well.

You have sucklers. Your system is incompatible with decent profitability. The quite simple reason is that half the animals you keep are costing you with little or no return from them.

On 100 acres what amount of suckler cows will you keep and finish there progeny. 38ish even to do that the heifers and bullock's have to be finished at 20-24 months out of a shed and shed cattle cost money. Some may finish earlier off grass but you compromise on carcase weight.

After a dairy calf gets to 10-12 weeks of age cost of production decreases sharply. From that to the finishing period the average variable cost per day will be in the region of 60-80c/ day maybe even lower.

You can probably keep 1.6-1.9 units of them where you keep a suckler unit depending on you system.

On output allowing for losses and cows not getting in calf, calf losses etc out of 38 will you have 36-37 calves on average each year. Assuming an average price of 1800/ head it gives a turnover if 66k.

On a calf to beef system depending system slaughtering traditional breeds at the end of the second grazing season to shed finishing bullocks to turning out friesians after second winter turnover will be 110-120k. Most of that if not all of that money that money remains in the beef system.

Recently a suckler farmer's son told me that (60 cow operation on 150 ISH acres) that there meal bill last winter was 25k. They finish all makes as bulls. Even if you allow for increased output of bulls take 25k from the top line ( or 2/3 of it for a 35-40 cow unit) it a significant input spend.

I got 4.85 off Larry this morning...

I think Rathdowney was giving 4.85 for bullocks...4.90 for heifers...

What the score for the coming week??

guessing another 5 cent drop!!

Cows o/p were back to E3.90 lasr week

The big issue ATM seems to be Australian beef in the UK. Going forward it's not good with this trade agreement. The Australians can really undermine Irish beef let alone British.

The supermarkets have instructed the factories to reduce the price of beef or volume will dilute. Factories say gives us a few weeks and we will be buying at 4.50 for prime. The factory margin is maintained all the time as contracts are negotiated on the AHDB. This benchmark ensures processors don't loose. As regards the supermarkets its lotto numbers. I saw this week a major super market reduce prime steak by 33% which was now selling at 13e per kg. I know its a prime cut but it's some profit when Joe farmer can't get 5e per kg on the carcass never mind the offal.

Where supermarket A has an 'offer' supermarket B cries to the factory and demands an 'offer' so they can get a third off in their adverts too. I'm not painting the processors as saints before the avalanche.

Stock must not be that plentiful

I sold a 20 month old bullock last week and I see he’s been killed already

It seems a bit of a hatchet job TBF. However unfortunately the reality is the days of live export of calves is numbered

Not necessarily you'll be able to pick up nearly reared calves for peanuts next year onwards from dairy farmers with new calf welfare rules, if suckler numbers keep up their steady decline the actual kilos of beef produced yearly won't go up by much if anything, if the dairy reduction scheme comes to pass their will be 200k dairy calves born yearly which is another plus, the English/Australian free trade deal re beef is a much bigger elephant in the room