Russia - threadbanned users in OP

This Prizoghin think is too off the wall to not have something behind it and the Russians are nutty enough to try anything.

I'm going to throw this out there, feel free to tear it asunder. Anyone who knows my posting history on this thread knows I'm first to shoot down anyone rattling the nuke sabre but theres a few things culiminating here that would worry me. So the story as it stands

1. Putin knows hes losing the war
2. Putin moves Nukes to Belarus
3. Prigozhin goes off the rails and supposedly stages a coup. Then backs down
4. Gets exiled to Belarus
5. Gets a camp built not far from nuke storage

So far that's the facts as we know them. So is Putin daft enough to think that if the war turns bad when the remaining battalions enter the fray, that he turns Prizoghin lose. Accuses him of going rogue again. Has him launch a WMD on the largest concentration of ukrainian troops, then condemn the attack. Believing it gives him plausible deniability and perhaps avoiding a retaliatory strike. What could we do, you saw him try to oust me last month? Would the west really respond with a proportional response?

More presents for Ukraine from the US

Hopefully not but this is Russia so you could be right unfortunately.

I can't see that type of scenario working as a free pass for putin and a bipartisan resolution in the USA has tried to clarify that any use of nuclear weapons by a proxy of russia or a nuclear accident that leads to radioactive fall out on NATO members would qualify as a trigger for Article 5 of NATO and russia would in this situation be at war with NATO and all of its military would be subject to NATO attack.

I'm worried that the moves by Wagner forces to take control of some russian airfields before the Prigozhiin - Putin deal led to some tactical nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Wagner and they now have the nuclear card to play if putin does what he would like to do and tries to have Prigozhin killed. It is only me speculating but I can't see how Prigozhin was so comfortable moving away from the bulk of his troops unless he had some sort of reassurance that he had a way to retaliate if putin moves against him.

There'll be no fallout on a nato country from any nuke if used. Putin may well have very loose deniability but we've seen how slow the west has been to react to all kind of atrocities.

He denied having little green me in crimea in 2014 and lied straight to the face of western leaders. They knew it was lies and the best they could muster was some sanctions and even that wasn't even close to being unanimous.

He denied being involved in MH17 and blocked the recovery of bodies. Nothing happened.

He denied he was going to war with Ukraine. Within 48hrs he did and again he wasn't really squeezed.

We have a history of not punishing him despite he continually crossing red lines.

I just think there is a back story to this Prizoghin tale that has yet to play out. The absolutely unopposed mutiny was just too convenient and easy.

Saw desperate scenes of a restaurant being hit in kramatorsk this evening . Involving an injured infant. Really shocking stuff. Unbelievable the depths that Russia has plummeted to. It’s a hell hole country with some really really **** people with nothing to offer the world only sh1t. We waste too much time and give them too much credit trying to understand them. It really is a country that is just stuck in medieval mode and it’s entirely its own fault. Guys talk on here of them leading a new world order . Jesus Christ.

Yeah saw that myself, awful stuff. As a father of a child about that age/size in the scene it would make you want to cry and fill you with rage seeing an infant with their head covered in blood and the mother shaking. Please god the little one will be ok. Absolutely shameful to see how low those dirty cowardly b@stards will stoop to. If the west/NATO don't want to supply Ukraine with their latest technology to really hurt the scum, so be it. Not ideal but it is what it is, however they really have to ensure every single Ukrainian city and town are covered with multiple AA systems that ensures anything the scum launch at innocent civilians is intercepted.

I agree that there must be more to this Prigozhin story and another possibility is that behind it all he is still working for putin and all this threat to russian security is playing up to the idea that they are still better off with putin in charge even with the mistakes he has made.

Don't agree that putin would get away with nuclear escalation in Ukraine however as if he was to get away with this once, there would be no end to the number of times he might use the tactic again. Chernobyl caused nuclear fall out across Europe and NATO was established to stop this from happening deliberately in the countries close to russia. I'm not saying they would immediately strike russia with nuclear weapons but a conventional response against their military has been hinted at. Would not be surprised if efforts to take out all of putin's military in UKraine and sink their navy were followed up with a move to take back Kaliningrad and disable their airforce to lessen the danger from putin's tactical nuclear weapons being used again.

Jesus I'm not the better after watching that. Poor sod jumping out of the carrier onto the clay patch like everyone would., Hope he makes it.

Still happening in Afghanistan to the present day, mines laid during the time the Russians were there are still killing and maiming people, Men Women and Children. And not only people, but animals too, and this can impose serious hardship on family's.

You'd have to imagine the east of Bahkmut is a real weak point. They won't have been able to build defences and mine it like other areas due to their own activity in the area so potentially a real breakthrough point. Go round it rather than through it

Yes, I think that he has successfully used plausible deniability in the sense that he has never been seriously punished for it. Prigozhin's murderous operation's world wide are still filling Putin's ( and Prigozhin's) coffers in Russia. And this "spat" with Gerasimov and Shoigu largely stemmed from them no longer supplying weapons and ammunition for Free ( supplied by the state) and he was having to use his own money. And of course, the outside world did not believe a word of Putin's deniability claims. As you said, it was all for home consumption. But now having admitted bankrolling Prigozhin, it seem that the Russian State can be sued for all the murder's, theft and depredations carried out in its name.

Just a suspicion, but part of me thinks China will get more explicitly involved in this conflict over time and in exchange, Putin has already agreed to give some territory to China (de facto through some form of regional autonomy, or real via official transfer to Chinese control).