Russia - threadbanned users in OP

New round of American military assistance has now been confirmed

How effective would a MOAB be vs. a MCLC at the same job?

I miss bad asian animation

Are you saying the American intelligence services knew what was going on in Russia last Sunday (when the world thought a homicidal lunatic might get his hands on Russia's nuclear arsenal) but that they preferred their President and senior officials to look like deer caught in the headlights rather than re-assuring the American people because that would give the impression that they had better sources of information in the Kremlin?

I am saying the opposite and that one of the most important aspects of this episode is the weakness of Western intelligence in Russia. Everyone knew Prigozhin was angry and unstable but he caught everyone with their pants down last weekend and it is hard even for media close to the Biden Administration to disguise this -

I don't blame the CIA etc. for not anticipating Prigozhin's mutiny - that took everyone by surprise, especially the Russian MoD. But the element of surprise was gone by Saturday evening when Lukashenko announced the "deal". As far as I can see, no Western power seems to know what is happening in Russia even now e.g. is Putin's power secure? what becomes of Prigozhin and the Wagner mercenaries? how will it affect the war in Ukraine? I doubt if they even know whether General Gerasimov is even still alive [I assume so and expect him to re-emerge shortly, but who knows?]

All the Western media analysts, including those who are known to be linked to Western intelligence services, are just speculating with whatever crumbs of information become public. They don't even pretend to have sources in the Kremlin (and the media always boast about any high-level contacts).

I say we are back in the depths of the Cold War when Western intelligence had no high-level source in the Kremlin. Ditto with Beijing. The internet gives Americans a huge advantage in SigInt but not in Russia, it seems, nor in China (which may have turned the tables on the Americans in that area).

We are going to experience many more unpleasant surprises from Russia and China.

Intelligence may have learned what Prig was planning, but like Prig, Putin, Luk, Shoigu, etc they didn't know exactly what would happen next until it happened. It was a 22 hour event, Biden wasn't going to stand up and second guess what even the Russians didn't know was going to happen next. When the deal was struck, we learnt about it quickly and it ended quickly.

It's intelligence, not clairvoyance

..

I understand the need to probe, but they not only have to find a gap in the mines, but find a gap which isn't covered by other forms of defence, or if it is covered by other forms, then comparatively weak forms. The Russians could conceivably have essentially mined every bit of open ground which sits between their defensive positions and advancing Ukrainian forces, especially if they themselves have no imminent intention of pressing forward on that front themselves, and in order to advance, Ukraine will simply have to clear a path, which makes it trickier to make a sudden drive at a point in the Russian lines which they believe to be weak.

If I had to guess, I'd say the first serious gains will be around Bakhmut.

Which would be fittingly ironic.

Watching Lukashenko's televised remarks today, he made Putin look very weak, not a strong man. He made it sound like he was the calm and measured one on Saturday whilst Putin was in a state of panic and depression.

I heard a report earlier the AFU have re-established positions within the perimeter of the town itself. If there's another protracted battle for control of the town, not even the blackened husks of the buildings may be standing by the end of it. As long as it remains worthwhile in terms of the ratio of Ukrainian losses to Russian ones, and as long as the Russians are boneheaded enough to keep committing forces there, then crack on, I suppose.

Well for the deniability stunt that Putin has used successfully up to now, I don't think that it will work when it comes to Nuclear weapons. Any kind of Nuclear attack will be blamed fairly and squarely on Putin, as he is considered to be responsible for all Nuclear events in that part of the world. And it would be the correct decision, as only Putin would have the codes needed to fire them, So no matter where they are launched from, the trail leads back to Putin.

Has Putin successfully used deniability? Seems to me that the only people who believe Putin's attempts to deny things that were very clearly Russia's doing are Russian citizens and a gaggle of western contrarians. A low enough bar, imo. I absolutely agree that Putin would be bang to right if he ever launched nukes, not that who's to blame would any longer be a pressing concern when doomsday is in the offing.

Its quite disturbing that RT are publishing more of this type of story, getting the Russian public more accepting of the idea ?

https://www.rt.com/russia/578814-russia-has-to-consider-launching-nuclear-strike/