Has Putin successfully used deniability? Seems to me that the only people who believe Putin's attempts to deny things that were very clearly Russia's doing are Russian citizens and a gaggle of western contrarians. A low enough bar, imo. I absolutely agree that Putin would be bang to right if he ever launched nukes, not that who's to blame would any longer be a pressing concern when doomsday is in the offing.
I can't see that type of scenario working as a free pass for putin and a bipartisan resolution in the USA has tried to clarify that any use of nuclear weapons by a proxy of russia or a nuclear accident that leads to radioactive fall out on NATO members would qualify as a trigger for Article 5 of NATO and russia would in this situation be at war with NATO and all of its military would be subject to NATO attack.
I'm worried that the moves by Wagner forces to take control of some russian airfields before the Prigozhiin - Putin deal led to some tactical nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Wagner and they now have the nuclear card to play if putin does what he would like to do and tries to have Prigozhin killed. It is only me speculating but I can't see how Prigozhin was so comfortable moving away from the bulk of his troops unless he had some sort of reassurance that he had a way to retaliate if putin moves against him.
Well for the deniability stunt that Putin has used successfully up to now, I don't think that it will work when it comes to Nuclear weapons. Any kind of Nuclear attack will be blamed fairly and squarely on Putin, as he is considered to be responsible for all Nuclear events in that part of the world. And it would be the correct decision, as only Putin would have the codes needed to fire them, So no matter where they are launched from, the trail leads back to Putin.
Hopefully not but this is Russia so you could be right unfortunately.
I heard a report earlier the AFU have re-established positions within the perimeter of the town itself. If there's another protracted battle for control of the town, not even the blackened husks of the buildings may be standing by the end of it. As long as it remains worthwhile in terms of the ratio of Ukrainian losses to Russian ones, and as long as the Russians are boneheaded enough to keep committing forces there, then crack on, I suppose.
More presents for Ukraine from the US
Watching Lukashenko's televised remarks today, he made Putin look very weak, not a strong man. He made it sound like he was the calm and measured one on Saturday whilst Putin was in a state of panic and depression.
This Prizoghin think is too off the wall to not have something behind it and the Russians are nutty enough to try anything.
I'm going to throw this out there, feel free to tear it asunder. Anyone who knows my posting history on this thread knows I'm first to shoot down anyone rattling the nuke sabre but theres a few things culiminating here that would worry me. So the story as it stands
So far that's the facts as we know them. So is Putin daft enough to think that if the war turns bad when the remaining battalions enter the fray, that he turns Prizoghin lose. Accuses him of going rogue again. Has him launch a WMD on the largest concentration of ukrainian troops, then condemn the attack. Believing it gives him plausible deniability and perhaps avoiding a retaliatory strike. What could we do, you saw him try to oust me last month? Would the west really respond with a proportional response?
If I had to guess, I'd say the first serious gains will be around Bakhmut.
Which would be fittingly ironic.
Remember that:
The pressure will tell and the lines will collapse. First slow, then quick.😉
I understand the need to probe, but they not only have to find a gap in the mines, but find a gap which isn't covered by other forms of defence, or if it is covered by other forms, then comparatively weak forms. The Russians could conceivably have essentially mined every bit of open ground which sits between their defensive positions and advancing Ukrainian forces, especially if they themselves have no imminent intention of pressing forward on that front themselves, and in order to advance, Ukraine will simply have to clear a path, which makes it trickier to make a sudden drive at a point in the Russian lines which they believe to be weak.
He seems to say that they would keep pushing carefully until they found a weak spot in the defences. Gap in the minefields somewhere they can't be in depth everywhere.
..
Or their sources cant get information out that quickly. Or are just outside the inner circle that were in the loop during this crisis.
Intelligence may have learned what Prig was planning, but like Prig, Putin, Luk, Shoigu, etc they didn't know exactly what would happen next until it happened. It was a 22 hour event, Biden wasn't going to stand up and second guess what even the Russians didn't know was going to happen next. When the deal was struck, we learnt about it quickly and it ended quickly.
It's intelligence, not clairvoyance
Great point, supposing that would only be viable in very large scale joint operations with lots of air and ground assets involved to support a bigly and immediate push.
Are you saying the American intelligence services knew what was going on in Russia last Sunday (when the world thought a homicidal lunatic might get his hands on Russia's nuclear arsenal) but that they preferred their President and senior officials to look like deer caught in the headlights rather than re-assuring the American people because that would give the impression that they had better sources of information in the Kremlin?
I am saying the opposite and that one of the most important aspects of this episode is the weakness of Western intelligence in Russia. Everyone knew Prigozhin was angry and unstable but he caught everyone with their pants down last weekend and it is hard even for media close to the Biden Administration to disguise this -
I don't blame the CIA etc. for not anticipating Prigozhin's mutiny - that took everyone by surprise, especially the Russian MoD. But the element of surprise was gone by Saturday evening when Lukashenko announced the "deal". As far as I can see, no Western power seems to know what is happening in Russia even now e.g. is Putin's power secure? what becomes of Prigozhin and the Wagner mercenaries? how will it affect the war in Ukraine? I doubt if they even know whether General Gerasimov is even still alive [I assume so and expect him to re-emerge shortly, but who knows?]
All the Western media analysts, including those who are known to be linked to Western intelligence services, are just speculating with whatever crumbs of information become public. They don't even pretend to have sources in the Kremlin (and the media always boast about any high-level contacts).
I say we are back in the depths of the Cold War when Western intelligence had no high-level source in the Kremlin. Ditto with Beijing. The internet gives Americans a huge advantage in SigInt but not in Russia, it seems, nor in China (which may have turned the tables on the Americans in that area).
We are going to experience many more unpleasant surprises from Russia and China.
In theory, great. The thing is dropped out of a C-130 or C-17, though, so how would you get it there without getting shot down?
I miss bad asian animation
New Russian wonder weapon
https://twitter.com/jaharamatisek/status/1673752753087168513?s=46&t=GTNY5JeNwPhsZu-DGXAMMg
How effective would a MOAB be vs. a MCLC at the same job?
Did Professor Clarke have any opinions on how Ukraine can bypass the large minefields, which Russia appears to have laid down, when this main thrust occurs?
There is a significant difference between 'clearing' a minefield, and 'breaching' a minefield. Clearing minefields is the stuff of very slow, methodical, dedicated work, which can go on for years after the war is over. "Breaching" merely requires the creation of a marked lane through the minefield. Generally a MCLC is used to either detonate, or blow to the side, the various mines in the suspected field, but then it needs to be proofed because the MCLC won't get them all. That's there the plough-equipped tanks come in. Rollers can be used as well, but they tend to be less effective. A plough or roller is normally good for one or two mine strikes before it needs to be replaced. These vehicles are very vulnerable, as they operate at a walking pace, tend to be fairly unmaneuverable, and cannot have the turret front towards the enemy (if they have one), in order to protect the gun from the detonations of the mines. The breach of a minefield can take anything from 20 minutes to a couple of hours, depending on resistance and size of the minefield.
It's also important to remember the point of a minefield (or any other form of obstacle, from dragon's teeth to anti-tank ditches or abatis). They are rarely used as blocking obstacles because it's just so hard to make a blocking minefield. They are more frequently used as turning, disrupting or delay obstacles (Each of those four terms has its own doctrinal definition). Just because a minefield is breached doesn't mean it hasn't done its job.
I prefer this version...
Not well, but Priggy has bought himself time.
I'm knowledged on military tactics and equipment. Political machinations aren't my department. Sorry.
How did that end up for max?
New round of American military assistance has now been confirmed
Prof. M Clarke on Sky believes that Ukraine is stretching the Russians out along a very wide front before a major thrust. He also said that there was a contract on Prigozhin!
I think that the coup or whatever it was shows the pressure the Russians are under now. The sanctions, finance and military problems are having a serious effect.
I assume it's for the same or similar reasons Commodus doesn't kill Maximus even when he has him dead to rights: you don't try and make martyrs and you don't try and set the match on a rebellion. Least of all when your martyr is a 'war hero' with the adoration of your military...
How long does Prigozhin think he will last? Putin has unalived people for a lot less
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