Russia - threadbanned users in OP

But it wasn't Navalny they were cheering, it was Prigozhin, a total psycho. And we're talking what, a few hundred people who came out to cheer? I'm not so sure they were representative of Russians as a whole. It's not like people were jumping to join his troops, which is what you'd expect if he really commanded support.

Anyone else been depressed all day with the outcome of this?

If it had continued it could have forced much of the Russian army back to Moscow and logistics into Ukraine would have been completely severed.

I guess I'll just have to settle for the multiple aircraft and pilot losses which is genuinely a boost for Ukraine.

..

Think Luka is about to have an accident??

Absolutely but now blood has been spilt in the kremlim ocean ,it's now safe to say that shark's are going to be on the prowl picking off the weakest prey, think about putin has his own personal army protecting him yet a handful of Wagner forces and prigozhin was pretty much able to walk up to the gates of Moscow without opposition.

That's makes things even more dangerous for Moscow,at this stage a big push by the Ukrainians could well end up with 3 days to Moscow

It puts Wagner less than 100km from Kiev incidentally. Don't think that will go un-noticed.

Yeah. I doubt very much that Putin will allow Prigozhyn to command anything more than a hot dog stand after this weekends clusterf**k.

He'd be absolutely mad to let him have thousands of trained infantry at his disposal again. Unless theres some really enormous information thats eluded everyone.

Russia has made no serious attempt to attack Ukraine from the north in well over a year. If their military planners thought it was a viable route, they'd be all over it, given how long their forces have been held in the south and east, as well as offering the shortest route to Kyiv. Therefore, I have to think that Russia has looked at the satellite imagery, seen what defensive fortifications have had ample time to build and improve, and concluded that a land invasion via this route would be impossible to try again with what they have. And if that is what the Russian command did decide, then it's safe to assume that the Russian Mad Mike Hoare and his band of merry men would have even worse luck. Fish in a barrel.

Lukashenko has been playing a delicate game since the start of the invasion where he's willing to give support to Putin just so long as he doesn't have to commit his own troops (and thereby weaken his own position within Belarus). I can't see him allowing some lunatic to raise an army, drawing from his own people as he'd be concerned that it would inevitably lead to him being toppled. If that is the actual plan then he won't be long throwing sand in the gears.

Who knows though. There's scant detail right now. All the main players are keeping very quiet. We'll probably learn more in the next few days and weeks. Prigozhin isn't exactly the sort to stay quiet for too long.

Belarus to enter the war on Friday?

Belarusians are already not crazy about the war in Ukraine and many aren't big fans of Luka, either. Given that Wagner is a private army of mercenaries, you'd have thought that membership would have been open to Belarusians as it was, given the political and cultural ties to Russia and Belarus, so whoever in Belarus was wont to join, could have already. Prigozhin wouldn't need to base his operations out of Belarus for that to happen.

I remember someone on Twitter saying that if Putin is close to "regular" people then it's probably a double. So basically the Putin that shows up at factories, the Putin that went to the Donbass and the Putin at the May day Parade, sitting amongst the veterans, were probably all doubles.

In contrast if he's on his own talking to the camera in the Kremlin or talking to people at the end of the long table or giving a speech in the big hall with a massive gap between him and the audience then that's likely to be the real Putin.

For example, this was Putin's visit to Mariupol in Match of this year:

And this is from the May Day parade last month:

I think both of them are doubles (not sure if they are the same person or not)

In contrast this was him yesterday, on his own, in the Kremlin

If Russia hasn't got the stuff to push from the east/south, they've not got the stuff to push from the north. You know how people say that Russia has had lots of time to prepare defences in the south? Well, Ukraine has had at least as much time to prepare defences in the north and, unlike Ukraine, Russia does not have access to fast armour to try and breach lines. All they have is the same numbers game that is failing to make any headway. Conclusion: no route to Kyiv, whether the ground is wet or dry.

We don't seem to have any details on what Prigozhin will do in Belarus. Channel 4 just mentioned in a news report about living a life of retirement there, but the tone in which this was said sounded tongue in cheek. This is just to underline that what his 'exile' will be like, no-one really knows. But if we say, for the sake of argument, that Prigozhin will remain the leader of Wagner, he'll want his boys in Africa where there is money to be made and relatively little resistance to be found, not hanging around Belarus. If he went to that country and then invited the boys around for an extended stay, it would be fairly obvious what he was planning.

Given all the talk of a nuclear threat. This is Russia the worlds largest kleptocracy.

So they won't have a fraction of what they claim and a large percentage of what they do have probably doesn't work. As those weapons cost a fortune to maintain, and as it's always seemed unlikely anyone would ever try to fire them, that massive budget is ripe for the crooks in power to be dipping in to all the way along the line.