Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I'd imagine all the variables will be worked through, but NATO won't step a foot in russia, they won't need to.

It's hard to keep track of all that's going on but it's very exciting. I am feeling uneasily hopeful.

I can't see Putin just handing over control of the army to Prigozhin. Prigozhin is too much of a loose cannon and a free thinker for Putin to trust him. Putin needed to deal with him when he released that video in Bakhmut demanding support and threatening to pull out. Prigozhin didn't even meet his own deadline that time. They both blinked that time.

This is such a ballsy move that I think it is an all or nothing play. What do people think Putin is going to if Wagner doesn't succeed? His authority is being challenged boldly and publicly by a prominent member of the Ukraine invasion. Considering how much of a mess Russia has got itself into at the moment, the idea that this is some large scale performance and that they are actually negotiating is absurd. Neither party have the luxury to engage in such spectacular open-air theatre in order to fool the outside world.

The prospect of Wagner and the Chechens tearing lumps out of each other is hilarious but also insane. If it happens, it could really open up a whole world of chaos. Will other republics who are not so subservient to Putin as Kadyrov is decide to wade in on Wagner's side? If Russia is descending into civil war, how many mini-Kadyrov's are biding their time to join one side or the other?

It's important to remember about all this: Wagner is a private army. Prigozhin is loyal to the highest bidder so I wouldn't be surprised if the oligarchs are behind this and are fed up of Putin messing with their money and freedom to live a luxurious lifestyle around the world. Prigozhin was quite happy to take Russian money when he was storming across Ukraine a year ago. For whatever real reason, that's changed but I don't see his core motivation (money) changing.

It'd be great to see an end to Putin but that's only the first step. What comes after Putin? Prigozhin as president? I don't think he's interested in politics so there'd be someone else even if he were in charge of the military. Who would have the real power? If Prigozhin comes out on top, I see there being a weak political figurehead with Prigozhin's financial backers being the real power. A complete regime change would want to root out all Putin loyalists. The question then is how much the new regime is interested in Ukraine or other places. Will the oligarchs keep paying Prigozhin to fight their wars?

All of this is wild speculation. My fingers are crossed for Wagner going after Putin and knocking seven shades of shite out of each other. I think a civil war on Russian territory would also quickly have people turn against Putin because there'd be a direct line from the Ukraine invasion to the country tearing itself apart.

Apparently there's videos of Chechens just surrendering

What do they have? Some APCs? I can't imagine they're let in charge of much else so Wagner should have them outgunned.

So, Moscow using Chechyen Tiktok troops to deal with Russia mercenaries in Russia..

Possible battle over a nuclear stockpile.

It seems like it is just the police force that are organising the road closures and blockades.

Like, if the Scottish Guards decided and announced they were going to roll down to London to remove King Charles, Id doubt they'd get far past Newcastle. Or an Army from Texas deciding it's going to go to Washington, they wouldn't get far when the air force take over. It can't be just Russian inadequacy.

What a thing to post without any links.

What matters here is nuclear weapons. Will Prigozhin try to seize some? A civil war of any kind in a nuclear super power is extremely dangerous.

if the Russian front in Ukraine collapses arising from this and a Ukrainian push, will Putin use a tactical weapon against the Ukrainians out of desperation?

what would the Americans do in response?

if Prigozhin has backers in Russian military and we see a successful coup what are the chances of a new government being less hawkish than Putin? I would say slim.

short term this benefits Ukraine, medium term probably not.

Waiting for a trusted source first. Too vague at present.

There is historical precedent with regard to Scotland the jacobites nearly reached London in 1745. Turned back in derby when the French failed to materialise in Dover. But they did March south basically unopposed .

A straight up answer for once, thank you.

Then let's watch what happens and hopefully the f*cker is in serious trouble at last. Ideally these snakes will destroy each other and someone better will emerge from the ruins.

For all our disagreements, you and I want this to end more or less the same way

Couple of videos appearing on Reddit of citizens in the occupied city of Rostov-on-Don having begun to confront Wagner PMC personnel.

Its hard to see how all this is going to pan out.

Ukraine must be looking at this with glee, especially when they see a Russian helicopter blowing up a Russian oil refinery.

This is just a bizarre day !

Omigod what is Wagner gets their hands on the torpedo nukes!

Only a matter of time before the returning posters get to that level of scaremongering