What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

Funnily enough, not acting like a mixture between a spoilt baby and a raging psycho is still something that voters value, even if the MAGA base doesn't. Trump has done absolutely nothing to win back independent voters since 2020 and unless that changes, he has no chance.

I'd say Trumpy is raging theres no mugshot.

Think of the merchandise potential wasted!

What nobody really seems to be talking about much is the question of what, if any, fruit that all these 'questions' about election security has borne for Republicans since 2020. People will say that election deniers did not do well in the 2022 midterm elections, and that would seem to be true, but I'm talking about on a much more granular level than that in terms of anybody who is in a position to influence the outcome of Presidential elections at a state by state level, be that members of a state legislature, judges, state election officials and so on. What pieces are being moved into place in this regard, if any, and what steps if any are being taken to counteract it? Obviously, any Republican strategist will recognise that on the party's current policy trajectory, they're probably looking at a popular vote loss in any nationwide election in the normal course of things. It would therefore be a priority, assuming they cannot change message, to then look toward disenfranchising as many voters as possible in as many districts where they have the power to do so.

In the normal course of things, yes I absolutely agree that independent voters decide these elections, but 2024 is shaping up to be anything but a normal election - we're quite possibly looking at the business end of the campaign running concurrently with one of the nominees' criminal trial, and America at a level of political polarisation quite unlike anything seen in recent memory, at the least. In that cauldron, I don't think anyone should be resting on the laurels of things being predictable from an electoral standpoint. Reasonable Americans must be very much on guard for another concerted effort on their democracy.

Apparently, trump is doing what trump does.

Dig himself a deeper hole...

I hope I am wrong but I do think, if Trump is on the ballot, the voting will be closer than expected. Not because of any policies that Trump will have but because of gerrymandering and voting fraud/exclusion type shenanigans. After all it was Trump voters who were found guilty of fraud and I can see more cases being found next time if he riles up his base.

If it wasn’t for Covid, Trump could have won the 2020 election.

It’s unlikely he’ll win in 2024 but I’d never say never, this is Yank politics at the end of the day.

Just what are we supposed to learn from this?

Nothing, its a bot.

He'll never do any time. All it'll take during this trial is a single MAGA juror (which is very likely to happen in Florida) to refuse to convict and it'll be a mistrial. The whole thing will then be dragged out and out until its either forgotten about, or some Republican in office orders the DOJ to drop the charges. I'd love to be proven wrong on that but I'd have serious doubts. Judge Aileen Cannon overseeing the whole thing is another factor.

Isn't he on record admitting that he didn't have a right to have those documents? Trump may figure that he's so bang to rights on the documents charges that he may as well rile his supporters up to as high a level he can. If prosecutors have the requisite evidence to convict him, then there's enough utility for Trump to continue talking guff, even if it provides more of a case, in the hope that he can make the case as politically-fraught as possible (and boost his numbers in the primary, apparently).

I've said it before and I'll say it again, this man will not serve any jail-time.

a) As an ex-president he has to be guarded 24/7 by the secret service, jail is not a possibility under those circumstances.

b) Likewise as ex-president, for national security reasons, he won't be allowed near a prison

c) At the very worst, he will serve some sort of "house arrest".

He has a powerful bat-shiat crazy core, and has most of the Republican party bending the knee to him, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see him wriggle out of this seemingly open and shut case.

The permutations are nuts. Trump could be convicted of a federal crime and be elected president, and the terms of the house arrest would possibly prevent him from attending an inauguration in Washington DC, or he'd have to get day leave of some kind.

I think given the time that would take rather than money, wouldn't be worth it. They could instead modify one of his existing residences.

Even though I agree that his situation is so unique given his position, any kind of reasonable incarceration, whether it be in a new facility or one of his own residences, is a huge step considering what it would have taken for the case to be brought, investigated, gone through trial and being found guilty. House arrest with significant restrictions in terms of visitors, communications, amenities etc akin to what would be in a prison, would be sufficient given his age.